"十五五"需求确定性高：2025年行业基本面修复明显，往"十五五"看，国内陆风稳增，国内海风高预 期、年均新增相比"十四五"翻倍，海外陆风亚非拉等新兴市场构造增长新引擎，海外海风欧洲、日韩等 高价值市场为主要需求高地。 主机方向：国内陆风机组价格自24年底回升趋势明显，25年国内风机盈利进入修复通道，26年盈利改善 更加明显；同时，在海风起量、国内主机出海实现从1到10预期下，量价齐升逻辑明晰。 中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，对于大储市场，国内政策驱动转向价值驱动，政策目标托底+盈利模 型改善带动未来需求高增；对于户储和工商储市场，发达市场主要受经济性提升、补贴政策等驱动，新 兴市场则是基于战后重建、用电短缺且供电不稳、替代柴发等刚性需求驱动，景气度趋势不改。风电方 面，2025年行业基本面修复明显，往"十五五"看，国内陆风稳增，国内海风高预期、年均新增相比"十 四五"翻倍，海外陆风亚非拉等新兴市场构造增长新引擎，海外海风欧洲、日韩等高价值市场为主要需 求高地。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 储能：需求逻辑重塑，全球天花板打开 需求逻辑演绎：(1)对于大储市场：国内方面，政策驱动转向价值驱动，政策目标托底+盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wind power industry is experiencing a turning point in Q1 2025, with revenue and profitability expected to continue rising, driven by stable domestic prices and increased demand from both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2024, the domestic wind power sector is projected to add 87 GW of new installations, a year-on-year increase of 10%, despite a significant decline in sales prices [1]. - The revenue for SW wind power equipment in 2024 is expected to be 192 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, new wind turbine tenders reached 28.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, indicating sustained high demand [2]. Group 2: Segment Analysis - The profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, with a decrease in profitability in Q1 2025 primarily due to a slowdown in power station transfers [3]. - The average sales price for wind turbines among leading companies has dropped to 1,550 yuan/kW, with limited further decline expected [3]. - The tower segment is facing profitability challenges due to declining prices in domestic land tower business and lower-than-expected demand for offshore wind [4]. Group 3: Material and Component Insights - The casting and forging segment has faced revenue and profit pressure due to significant declines in sales prices in 2024 [5]. - In Q1 2025, the casting segment is expected to show substantial recovery in performance, driven by adjustments in revenue structure and fixed cost amortization [5]. - Price increases for castings have been largely realized, with expectations for continued upward production in Q2 and Q3, contributing to performance elasticity [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the wind power equipment sector, indicating an industry turning point in Q1 2025 with expected revenue and profit growth [3]. Core Insights - The wind power sector faced revenue and profit pressure in 2024 due to a deflationary cycle, with total revenue of 192 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% [2][20][23]. - Q1 2025 marked a recovery with a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.25 billion yuan, up 2.8%, indicating the first positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 in three years [2][26][30]. - The report highlights the importance of manufacturing profitability as the transfer of power stations slows down, with a focus on the manufacturing segment's increasing significance [2][3]. - The report identifies three key investment themes: 1) Equipment manufacturers benefiting from price stabilization and increased revenue from offshore projects, recommending companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy; 2) Companies in the submarine cable and foundation segments benefiting from high demand and overseas orders, recommending Dongfang Cable and Haile Wind Power; 3) Companies in the casting and blade segments with significant profit elasticity due to supply-demand tightness, recommending Jinlei Co. and Riyue Co. [3]. Summary by Sections Demand Review - The report notes a robust demand foundation with a 10% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations in 2024, totaling 87 GW, despite a decline in offshore wind installations [2][8]. - Q1 2025 saw accelerated offshore wind project starts, with 14.6 GW of new wind power connected to the grid, indicating a positive trend [8][9]. Financial Review - The financial performance in 2024 was under pressure, with a revenue of 192 billion yuan and a net profit of 57.5 billion yuan, reflecting a challenging market environment [20][23]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue and profit showed signs of recovery, with a revenue of 372 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan, marking a significant improvement [26][30]. Segment Analysis - The report highlights that the profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, while the tower and foundation segments face profitability challenges due to price declines and demand fluctuations [2][3]. - The casting and forging segments showed significant recovery in Q1 2025, benefiting from improved demand and pricing adjustments [39][44]. Price Trends - Wind turbine prices stabilized in Q4 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025, indicating a potential end to the downward price trend [16][44]. - The report anticipates that as the market stabilizes, companies will see improved profitability from price adjustments in key components like casting and blades [44].