2025/12/25 15:09 Charts In Focus: These Are Goldman's Top Tech Trader's 10 Biggest Questions For 2026 | ZeroHedge 聚焦图表：这些是⾼盛顶级科技交易员对2026年的10 个最⼤疑问 BY TYLER DURDEN THURSDAY, DEC 25,2025-12:05 AM 科技、媒体和电信⾏业⼜迎来了稳健的⼀年，2025年纳斯达克100指数上涨20%以上，有望实现连 续三年年度回报率超过20%，这在25年多的时间⾥仅为第⼆次（……或者换个说法：……过去23 年中，纳斯达克100指数仅出现过3次下跌年份……） 尽管如此，⾼盛顶级科技交易员彼得·卡拉汉提醒客⼾，2025年的市场⾏情并⾮"⼀帆⻛顺"…… ... 因为今年前4个⽉有⼏次严峻的考验（1⽉的深度求索（DeepSeek）、2⽉/3⽉令⼈不快的Mo' unwind，以及4⽉的"解放⽇"），随后…… 2025年最佳表现者（截⾄12⽉23⽇）：SNDK/铠侠/南亚增⻓超500%，SATS增⻓370%，光模块 （中际旭创、LITE）增⻓超350%，IR ...

近两个月，美国股市的表现尤为反常。当前的上涨行情几乎完全由人工智能（AI）相关股票的 投机热潮推动，即便企业在快讯中只是牵强提及 "AI"，也能拉动股价上涨。市场对 AI 及相关 半导体企业的高度关注，几乎吸走了其他所有板块的资金，这使得低配科技与半导体股的投资 组合难以实现可观回报。 市场涨幅高度集中于 "AI 主题" 标普 500 总回报指数与标普 500 等权重指数的显著分化，直观体现了市场涨幅对 "AI 主题" 的依赖。 截至 2025 年 11 月 3 日，标普 500 指数今年以来涨幅 达 17.62%，而等权重版 本仅上涨 8.41%。过去 12 个月，这种历史性的表现差距更为明显：标普 500 总回报指数上 涨 21.12%，等权重指数仅上涨 8.07%。 本质上，市场的整体强势仅由少数高估值企业推 动，绝大多数股票并未参与此次上涨。 科技巨头 "循环交易" 加剧市场复杂性 近期，多家头部科技与半导体企业密集发布 "合作交易" 的动态，进一步让市场形势复杂化。 这些交易往往呈现 "循环性" 特征：A 公司投资 B 公司，而 B 公司随后用这笔资金向 A 公司 采购产品或服务。这种模式类似金融 ...

Core Insights - Meta has proposed a compensation package exceeding $200 million to attract the head of Apple's Foundation Models team, Pang Ruoming [1][3] - Pang leads a team of approximately 100 people at Apple, responsible for developing large language models that are crucial for Apple Intelligence and other AI functionalities [1] - The proposed salary is second only to Apple's CEO Tim Cook and aligns with the compensation standards for other key members of Meta's newly established Superintelligence Team [3] Compensation Structure - The compensation package for the Superintelligence Team is among the highest in global corporate positions, surpassing that of CEOs at major banks [3] - A significant portion of the compensation is performance-based and requires long-term service to unlock fully, meaning early departure or poor stock performance could result in reduced payouts [3] - The structure includes base salary, signing bonuses, and Meta stock, with stock being the most critical component [3][4] Stock and Contract Terms - Meta typically ties stock payments to specific growth metrics of Meta's stock over designated years, often extending beyond the standard four-year vesting period [4]

Group 1 - Meta is offering over $200 million in compensation to recruit Ruoming Pang, head of Apple's Foundation Models team, which is approximately 1.436 billion RMB [1][3] - Ruoming Pang leads a team of about 100 people at Apple, responsible for developing large language models that are foundational to Apple Intelligence and other AI functionalities [1] - The compensation package offered by Meta is among the highest in the industry, second only to Apple's CEO Tim Cook [3] Group 2 - Meta's newly established Superintelligence Team (MSL) has compensation packages that align with Pang's offer, aimed at building AI systems that can perform tasks at or above human levels [3] - Key members of the MSL include former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman and AI startup founder Daniel Gross [3] - Meta's compensation structure includes base salary, signing bonuses, and stock options, with stock being the most significant component [3] Group 3 - The Superintelligence Team's compensation exceeds that of CEOs at major global banks, although much of it is performance-based and tied to long-term service [3] - Meta typically offers higher signing bonuses to compensate for equity forfeited from previous startups when hiring new employees [3] - Contracts often stipulate that stock payments are linked to specific growth metrics of Meta's stock over designated years, with many contracts extending beyond the typical four-year vesting period [3]