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卫龙美味(09985):首次覆盖报告:掘金魔芋新品类,辣味龙头壁垒深筑
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 13:37
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the spicy snack sector, benefiting from the growth of the konjac product category, which has driven rapid revenue growth over the past 25 years. The company possesses strong brand power and product development capabilities, supported by a big product strategy and refined channel management for long-term growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Future Development Highlights - The konjac snack industry is projected to reach a scale of 12 billion yuan in 2024, characterized by high customer unit prices, broad audience coverage, and health benefits, indicating significant market potential. The company, as a pioneer in the konjac category, is expected to generate over 3 billion yuan in revenue from konjac products in 2024, maintaining its industry leadership [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 7.881 billion, 9.494 billion, and 11.265 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 20%, and 19% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.360 billion, 1.670 billion, and 1.984 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27%, 23%, and 19%. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.56, 0.69, and 0.82 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23.68, 19.29, and 16.24 times. The company is currently in a konjac product growth phase, with a valuation of 25-30 times P/E, translating to a market value of 34-40.8 billion yuan, indicating further upside potential [4][6]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 2.76 billion yuan in 2018 to 6.266 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.6%. The net profit has also risen from 476 million yuan in 2018 to 1.069 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of 17.06% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [24][30]. Core Competitiveness - The company has established a robust brand foundation and a comprehensive product matrix, with a strong focus on the spicy snack market. The konjac product line has emerged as a significant growth driver, with revenue from this category increasing from 298 million yuan in 2018 to 3.371 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 49.84% [36][37]. Product Foundation - The company has a well-structured product matrix, including traditional spicy snacks, vegetable products, and bean products. The konjac product "Konjac Delight" has become a key growth driver, while traditional spicy snacks remain a core product line despite a decrease in revenue share [41][43].
食品饮料行业周报:统一Q1盈利亮眼,把握结构性α-20250511
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 06:49
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 白酒:强化内功,蓄力改善。白酒板块从业绩窗口期进入动销淡季,在行业整体环 比降速、逐步释压的背景下,各家酒企聚焦品牌底蕴、产品结构、渠道体系、营销 打法等内功持续发力。近期今世缘召开 2024 业绩说明会,在产品体系上持续把握 结构性机会,百元大众消费趋势积极、国缘四开省内占有率与开瓶动销领先、V 系 列坚持品牌与渠道双驱动下快速放量,在渠道拓展上优化厂商关系、保持良性库 存,同时省内延续精耕攀顶策略、省外保持明显快于省内增速。在珍酒李渡近期的 2024年股东周年大会暨投资者交流会上,也重点提出将持续优化与丰富产品结构, 预计未来珍酒将推出 500-600 元价格带新品与珍十五、珍三十形成协同效应,长 期依托珍酒、李渡、湘窖等强品牌实现讲好品牌文化、多维提升品牌形象。我们认 为当下白酒行业的压力与风险已逐步释放,供给端强化经营实力的同时后续需求 端有望迎来逐级修复,中长期配置价值凸显。 啤酒饮料:青啤收购即墨黄酒多元化更进一步,统一 25Q1 业绩表现亮眼。1)啤 酒板块,本周百威亚太发布 25Q1 季报,中国区 25Q1 ...