休闲食品 | | | 2025-03-29 2、《收入增速承压，成本红利延续》 2024-10-24 劲仔食品（003000.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 27 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080002 Email：xiongxw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 450.89 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 300.39 | | 市价(元) | 13.32 | | 市值(百万元) | 6,005.91 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 4,001.24 | 新品新渠道加速拓展，业绩短期承压 ——劲仔食品 2025 年半年报点评 股价与行业-市场走势对比 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 11.24 亿元（同比-0.50%）， 归母净利润 1.12 亿元（同比-21.86%），扣非净利润 0.87 亿元（同比-28.94%）。其 中 25Q2，公司实现营业收入 5.28 亿元（同比-10.37%），归母净利润 0.44 亿元（同 比-36.27%），扣非净利润 0.34 亿元（同比- ...

盐津铺子食品股份有限公司 一步提升。 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 其他（电话会议） ☑ | | 参与单位名称及 | 广发证券、长江证券、方正证券、工银瑞信基金、富国基金、 | | 人员姓名 | 嘉实基金等投资机构，总计 216 位投资者 | | 时 间 | 年 月 日（星期四）上午 2025 8 21 10:00-11:00 | | 地 点 | 线上电话会议 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事、副总经理：杨林广 | | | 董 事 会 秘 书：张 杨 | | 员姓名 | 财 务 总 监：杨 峰 | | | Q：如何看待魔芋当下的竞争情况？魔芋品类未来 3-5 年 | | | 的成长性展望如何？公司计划在渠道、研发、口味创新上做 | | | 哪些规划？另外，根据魔芋的原材料价格，公司今年的利润 | | | 达成是否会受到影响？ | | | A：魔芋品类因其"超级大单品"特性，符合消费者当下 | | 投资者关系活动 | 及未来对健康零食需求，目前处于高速扩张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The control of the high-end snack brand "Liangpin Shop" is in dispute, with a lawsuit involving its major shareholder, Ningbo Hanyi, and Guangzhou Light Industry Group, leading to uncertainties regarding ownership transfer and company operations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Control and Ownership Changes - Ningbo Hanyi, the former controlling shareholder of Liangpin Shop, holds 29.84% of the shares as of Q1 2025 and has been seeking a buyer to alleviate operational challenges [2][3]. - On July 17, 2023, Liangpin Shop announced the introduction of Wuhan Yangtze International Trade Group as a strategic investor, which would reduce Ningbo Hanyi's shareholding from 38.22% to 17.22% and grant Wuhan Yangtze a 21% stake [2][3]. - Following the announcement, Guangzhou Light Industry filed a lawsuit against Ningbo Hanyi on July 21, claiming breach of contract regarding share transfer agreements, leading to the freezing of 79.76 million shares held by Ningbo Hanyi [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Challenges - Liangpin Shop projected a net loss of between 75 million to 105 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant decline in net profit compared to the previous year [6]. - The company attributes its financial struggles to ongoing adjustments in product and store structures, rising online channel costs, and decreased income from interest and government subsidies [6][8]. - The snack industry is undergoing structural changes, with shrinking consumption and evolving consumer preferences, particularly among the Z generation, who prioritize health and value for money [6][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Positioning - Liangpin Shop's health transformation efforts have not been systematic, leading to confusion in market positioning, especially compared to competitors like Baicaowei, which has successfully focused on health-oriented products [7]. - The company is facing challenges in both offline and online channels, with traditional retail traffic declining and high online customer acquisition costs squeezing profit margins [8]. - The need for stable control is emphasized as a prerequisite for business recovery, highlighting the importance of resolving the ongoing ownership dispute [9].

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food Co., Ltd. is undergoing a significant transformation from a traditional snack brand to a diversified health snack leader, as demonstrated by the launch of five innovative products at their recent event [1][3]. Product Innovation - The five new product series launched include Qiaqia Mountain Wild Series Sunflower Seeds, Qiaqia All-Nut Series, Qiaqia Magic Yam Princess—Magic Yam Layered Stomach, Qiaqia Crispy Bear Fresh Cut Potato Strips, and Qiaqia Sunflower Seed Kernel Ice Cream [3]. - The company emphasizes that it produces not just products but also quality and brand, allowing for innovation failures but not for a lack of innovation [3]. Industry Trends - The launch reflects the company's deep insights into future industry trends and a precise response to these trends, marking a significant upgrade in product offerings [3]. - The company has achieved three breakthrough transitions: from a single category to a matrix product ecosystem, from flavor innovation to deep nutritional functionality, and from snack foods to lifestyle scene upgrades [3].

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with net sales of $22.726 billion and organic sales growth of 2.1%, indicating resilience in a challenging environment [1] Financial Performance - Net sales reached $22.726 billion (approximately ¥164.887 billion) [1] - Operating profit was $1.789 billion (approximately ¥12.98 billion) [1] - Organic sales grew by 2.1% year-over-year [1] Market Expansion and Strategy - PepsiCo's market share in China's food and beverage sector continues to expand, demonstrating robust performance [1] - The company is adapting to the rapidly changing Chinese consumer market by focusing on health, taste, emotional resonance, and emerging channels [1] - PepsiCo is enhancing its local supply chain advantages to improve product competitiveness [2] Product Innovation - The introduction of new products like the "Milk Bare Rice Cake" and the dragon fruit dried product has been successful, with the latter quickly entering the top 10 dried fruit list at Sam's Club [2] - PepsiCo's commitment to innovation is evident in its quick-to-market strategy, exemplified by the "farm-to-shelf" potato chips [2] Investment and Future Outlook - PepsiCo is investing in local production capabilities, with a new food factory in Xi'an expected to be operational by Q3 2025 [2] - The company views investment in China as essential for high-quality growth, with plans to share its "China experience" across the Asia-Pacific region [3][4] Technological and Sustainable Practices - PepsiCo is leveraging its experience in China to enhance global operations, including the introduction of sustainable practices like biogas projects [3] - The company's agricultural system in China is becoming a vital part of its global supply chain [3]

Core Insights - PepsiCo reported Q2 2025 net sales of $22.726 billion and operating profit of $1.789 billion, with stable growth in market share for its food and beverage business in China [1] - The company is focusing on innovation driven by consumer demand for healthier snack options, emphasizing low sugar, low calorie, and high-quality ingredients [1] - PepsiCo is enhancing its local supply chain, with a new food factory in Xi'an, Shaanxi, expected to be operational by Q3 2025 [1] International Expansion - PepsiCo is exporting its "China experience" to other markets, including the implementation of green technology practices from its Wuhan factory to its operations in Thailand [2] - The company aims to continue expanding its international business and improve performance in the North American market, projecting low single-digit organic revenue growth for FY 2025 [2] - The outlook for core dollar earnings per share has improved due to a weaker dollar, reducing foreign exchange headwinds [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to deliver about 70% more productivity in the second half of the year compared to the first half, indicating a significant improvement in operational efficiency [12] - The North America market integration is anticipated to create both efficiency and cost reduction opportunities, enhancing overall performance [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The food business is focusing on stabilizing the category and improving competitiveness within subsegments, with notable performance in brands like Cheetos and Doritos [21][22] - The away-from-home business is highlighted as a growth area, with high single-digit growth reported in the PBNA segment [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International markets are performing well, with mid-single-digit growth expected to continue, particularly in LATAM and parts of Europe, while China shows some weakness [50][51] - The beverage segment is gaining share globally, driven by successful platforms such as no sugar colas and energy drinks [76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is investing in technology and productivity initiatives to optimize cost structures and drive growth, with a focus on integrating operations in North America [9][10] - There is a strong emphasis on permissible snacks and healthier options, with plans for innovation in protein and fiber offerings [46][47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses confidence in returning to the low end of the long-term growth algorithm, supported by sustained international growth and improvements in North America [55] - The company is committed to following consumer trends towards healthier ingredients and eliminating artificial components from products [86] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on portfolio transformation, particularly in the permissible snacks category, which has grown to over $2 billion [43] - Investments in away-from-home capabilities are expected to enhance growth opportunities and profitability [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on productivity initiatives and asset footprint - Management discussed multi-year productivity strategies, emphasizing technology investments and cost structure optimization across various business lines [9][10] Question: Key initiatives for North America top line improvement - Management highlighted stabilizing the food category and improving competitiveness as critical initiatives for the second half of the year [21][25] Question: Growth in the away-from-home segment - The away-from-home business is seen as a significant growth opportunity, with margin accretion noted for both beverages and snacks [28][29] Question: Visibility on full-year earnings and productivity acceleration - Management expressed high confidence in productivity initiatives, with identified actions expected to drive results in the second half of the year [35][36] Question: Portfolio transformation and consumer engagement - The company is focusing on increasing availability and affordability of permissible snacks to drive consumer trial and engagement [44][45] Question: International business performance and growth drivers - International markets are performing well, with a focus on developing and emerging markets driving growth [50][51] Question: Energy drink strategy and future outlook - Management remains optimistic about the energy drink category, with plans to leverage partnerships and distribution capabilities [92]

Overview - The demand for pistachios in China is increasing due to rising living standards and changing consumer preferences towards healthy snacks. In 2024, the demand for pistachios is projected to reach 235,100 tons, with a market size of 22.711 billion yuan, while the domestic production is only 81,100 tons, necessitating significant imports each year [1][10]. Market Policy - China has implemented a series of stringent food safety policies to regulate the production of pistachios, ensuring product quality and promoting the industry's development towards standardization and high quality. Key policies include guidelines for traditional food production, food safety assessment methods, and measures to enhance food enterprise standard management [4][6]. Industry Chain - The pistachio industry chain includes upstream cultivation, processing equipment, flavoring, and packaging materials. The main cultivation areas are in Xinjiang and Gansu, where the climate is suitable for pistachio growth. Due to insufficient domestic production, China heavily relies on imports. The midstream involves processing, while the downstream includes sales channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms [8][10]. Development Status - The market for pistachios is experiencing continuous growth, with a projected import volume of 133,700 tons and an import value of approximately 86.9 million USD in 2024. The average import price is 6.50 USD per kilogram, with major suppliers being the United States, Iran, Australia, and Turkey [12][10]. Competitive Landscape - The pistachio industry in China is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape with numerous participants. Key players include Three Squirrels, Qiaqia Food, and Good Products, among others, with operations spread across various provinces [14][16]. Company Analysis - Three Squirrels has achieved significant sales, with total revenue reaching 10.62 billion yuan in 2024, of which the nut business accounted for 5.366 billion yuan, representing 50.5% of total revenue [16]. Good Products, established in 2006, reported total revenue of 7.159 billion yuan in 2024, with the nut business contributing 1.138 billion yuan, or 15.9% of total revenue [18]. Development Trends - The future demand for pistachios is expected to grow as consumer health awareness increases, leading to a shift towards low-fat, high-protein, and nutrient-rich products. Companies are likely to invest in product diversification and innovation, including new flavors and functional products, as well as deep-processing products like pistachio butter and oil [20].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the spicy snack sector, benefiting from the growth of the konjac product category, which has driven rapid revenue growth over the past 25 years. The company possesses strong brand power and product development capabilities, supported by a big product strategy and refined channel management for long-term growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Future Development Highlights - The konjac snack industry is projected to reach a scale of 12 billion yuan in 2024, characterized by high customer unit prices, broad audience coverage, and health benefits, indicating significant market potential. The company, as a pioneer in the konjac category, is expected to generate over 3 billion yuan in revenue from konjac products in 2024, maintaining its industry leadership [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 7.881 billion, 9.494 billion, and 11.265 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 20%, and 19% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.360 billion, 1.670 billion, and 1.984 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27%, 23%, and 19%. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.56, 0.69, and 0.82 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23.68, 19.29, and 16.24 times. The company is currently in a konjac product growth phase, with a valuation of 25-30 times P/E, translating to a market value of 34-40.8 billion yuan, indicating further upside potential [4][6]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 2.76 billion yuan in 2018 to 6.266 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.6%. The net profit has also risen from 476 million yuan in 2018 to 1.069 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of 17.06% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [24][30]. Core Competitiveness - The company has established a robust brand foundation and a comprehensive product matrix, with a strong focus on the spicy snack market. The konjac product line has emerged as a significant growth driver, with revenue from this category increasing from 298 million yuan in 2018 to 3.371 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 49.84% [36][37]. Product Foundation - The company has a well-structured product matrix, including traditional spicy snacks, vegetable products, and bean products. The konjac product "Konjac Delight" has become a key growth driver, while traditional spicy snacks remain a core product line despite a decrease in revenue share [41][43].

Core Insights - The increasing consumer awareness regarding product ingredients and health benefits is driving a shift in snack preferences towards natural, fresh, and simple ingredients [1][9] - The launch of Beetroot Crisps and Sweet Pea Crisps by the company marks an expansion into instant retail channels, enhancing the diversity of healthy snack options available to consumers [1][5] Product Details - The new snacks are made from high-quality, fresh beetroot and sweet peas, utilizing a vacuum low-temperature dehydration process, avoiding traditional puffing methods, and containing no preservatives [2][3] - Each bag contains approximately 128 kcal, equivalent to a banana, and is rich in dietary fiber, with fiber content comparable to 80g of kale [3] Consumer Trends - A recent survey indicated that over 95% of more than 13,000 users on the Dingdong Maicai app identify as "ingredient-conscious," reflecting a growing demand for clean-label products [5] - Global snack consumption trends show that over 56% of consumers eat healthy snacks daily, with 32% prioritizing "natural" attributes in their purchasing decisions [7] Company Strategy - The company is committed to product innovation and category expansion in the plant-based food sector, exploring more possibilities for plant protein and plant-based snacks [7] - Recent product launches include shelf-stable snacks like Pocket Salad Sticks and Seaweed Tofu, which are available in Sam's Club nationwide, catering to the demand for high-protein and convenient snack options [7] Market Positioning - The company aims to align with the evolving consumer trend of seeking snacks that are not only enjoyable but also safe and healthy, emphasizing the natural appeal of food through simple ingredients and authentic flavors [9]