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盐津铺子(002847):2025年上半年魔芋品类放量,盈利水平提升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-21 05:49
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][11][20] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.94 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 370 million yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 330 million yuan, reflecting a 22.5% increase year-on-year [1][6][8] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the konjac product line, which saw over 155.1% year-on-year growth, contributing nearly all revenue increment [1][6][8] - The company is focusing on brand and channel dual-driven strategies, with adjustments in e-commerce and product matrix optimization during its strategic transformation [8][10] Revenue Summary - In the first half of 2025, the konjac product revenue reached 790 million yuan, accounting for 26.9% of total revenue. Other product categories showed mixed results, with egg products, bean products, deep-sea snacks, and dried fruits experiencing year-on-year increases of 29.6%, 12.7%, 11.9%, and 9.0%, respectively. However, baked potato products, meat products, and other spicy products saw declines of 18.4%, 16.7%, and 20.9% [1][6][8] - Revenue by channel showed a decline in direct supermarket sales by 42.0%, while distribution and other channels increased by 30.1%. E-commerce revenue saw a slight decline of 1.0% [1][6][8] Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to changes in channel structure and rising raw material prices. However, the company managed to reduce sales and management expense ratios by 2.7 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, due to decreased share-based payment expenses and enhanced cost control [2][7][8] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved profitability from focusing on core products and effective cost management [2][7][8] Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company has slightly adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, expecting total revenues of 6.33 billion, 7.57 billion, and 8.83 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 19.7%, and 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 800 million, 980 million, and 1.27 billion yuan, with growth rates of 24.8%, 22.2%, and 29.9% [8][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 21, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10]