美联储古尔斯比表示，应等待更多数据再降息，预计2026年的降息次数将少于中位数；施密德称通胀仍 然过高，应适度保持限制性货币政策；保尔森表示更关注就业风险，货币政策具有限制性；哈马克倾向 于采取略微更具限制性的政策立场。官员观点分歧使短期降息预期波动，但政策不确定性仍为黄金提供 支撑。 北京时间12月15日10:50，国内现货黄金Au9999涨1%，报974.11元/克，国际现货伦敦金现涨0.6%，报 4327.53美元/盎司。天弘基金经理沙川认为，在黄金长期上涨周期背景下持续关注投资机会，建议黄金 作为长期资产配置去考虑，避免频繁交易。 展望后市，黄金因中长期政策分歧、地缘局势不确定性、主要经济体经济疲软等利好仍然存在。美联储 官员观点分歧、全球地缘风险延续、英国经济萎缩等，共同支撑黄金维持强势表现，具体如下： 美联储官员观点分歧 英国10月GDP环比意外下滑0.1%，连续第四个月出现萎缩（此前经济学家预计增长0.1%）；英国央行 调查显示通胀预期从两年高位回落，英央行下周重启降息预期大幅升温。主要经济体经济疲软与宽松预 期，利多黄金配置价值。 看好黄金的投资者可在支付宝搜索：天弘上海金ETF联接C（C类： ...

Core Viewpoint - The short-term fluctuations in gold prices do not alter the long-term bullish outlook, with ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts supporting gold as a favorable asset for investment [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic spot gold (Au9999) increased by 1.62% to 949.99 CNY per gram, while international spot gold in London rose by 0.50% to 4140.70 USD per ounce [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for a faster pace of rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction, while San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasizes the need for an open discussion on further rate cuts due to potential demand decline in the U.S. economy [2] Group 3: Domestic Gold ETF Growth - The China Gold Association reported that domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons in the first three quarters of the year, marking a 164.03% year-on-year growth, with total holdings reaching 193.749 tons by the end of September, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Domestic spot gold Au9999 increased by 2.26%, reaching 989.99 CNY per gram, while international spot gold in London decreased by 0.72%, priced at 4333.88 USD per ounce [1] - International spot gold has surpassed 4300 USD per ounce for the first time, setting a new historical high, with domestic gold also showing a strong trend [1] - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, with a recommendation to consider gold as part of equity asset allocation and to avoid frequent trading [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Economic uncertainties continue to favor gold, supported by the expectation of a divided stance on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potential oil supply shortages, and the fact that gold market positions are not yet saturated [1][2] - The Federal Reserve officials exhibit significant disagreement on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some advocating for cautious 25 basis point cuts while others suggest more aggressive 50 basis point reductions [2] - The overall gold holdings remain low from a strategic perspective, with speculative positions in the futures market not reaching historical peaks, indicating that the market is not yet saturated [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to reach new highs, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and global economic uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of October 13, 2023, domestic spot gold (Au9999) rose by 2.98% to 924.4 CNY per gram, while international spot gold in London increased by 1.4% to 4075.47 USD per ounce [1] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a significant factor supporting gold prices in the short term [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in October is high, with Federal Reserve officials indicating a potential reduction of 25 basis points due to signs of a weakening labor market and slowing inflation [1][2] - The strong expectation of rate cuts is seen as bullish for gold [1] Group 3: Global Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts contribute to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The IMF president has warned that current global asset valuations are nearing levels seen during the internet bubble 25 years ago, suggesting that a significant market correction could enhance gold's appeal as a hedge [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in gold can consider related investment products such as Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF Connect C (Class C: 014662) and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF Connect A (Class A: 014661) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with recommendations to consider gold as part of equity asset allocation and to avoid frequent trading [1] - Gold is supported by ongoing economic and policy uncertainties, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased purchases by central banks, and global uncertainties contributing to its strong performance [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, highlighting the asset's continued appeal as a safe haven amid rising concerns over U.S. debt ceiling issues [1] Group 2 - Recent data from the New York Fed indicates a decrease in consumer inflation expectations, with a one-year inflation expectation dropping to 3.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting improved consumer confidence [2] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that if the debt ceiling remains unchanged, the government's borrowing capacity may be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September 2025, raising market concerns about the U.S. repayment ability [3] Group 3 - Tianhong Shanghai Gold announced an upgrade to its benchmark on June 3, increasing the gold investment proportion to nearly 100%, allowing for more precise tracking of gold price movements, with a potential 6% additional return over three years based on backtesting [4] - The new benchmark consists of 95% spot gold and 5% deferred gold contracts, compared to the old benchmark which included a portion linked to bank deposit rates, indicating a strategic shift towards a more gold-centric investment approach [4]