Core Viewpoint - The opening of the first store of "Mr. Rice" marks a significant entry into the competitive Beijing fast food market, emphasizing fresh and stir-fried dishes, which aligns with current consumer preferences for quality and freshness [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fast food market in Beijing is experiencing intense competition, with brands like "Mr. Rice" and "Country Base" vying for dominance, aiming to exceed 2000 stores nationwide by 2025 [3][5]. - The market is witnessing a shift from established brands to new entrants, with some local brands like "Red Kung Fu" shutting down all their stores due to failure [5][7]. - Data indicates a 58% year-on-year increase in the number of fast food stores being closed, with around 60% of these having operated for less than a year, highlighting the brutal market conditions [7]. Group 2: Trends in Fast Food - 2025 is identified as the year of the "stir-fry boom," with fresh and lively food becoming the core keywords in the restaurant industry, pushing brands to adopt fresh cooking methods as a standard [8][15]. - The demand for fresh stir-fried dishes is driving brands to upgrade their offerings, with significant increases in search growth for terms like "fresh" (135.3%) and "stir-fry" (71%) on popular platforms [15]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - "Country Base" has invested over 20 million yuan in developing a new model that emphasizes better, faster, and cheaper offerings, while also upgrading existing stores [9][17]. - Brands are focusing on enhancing customer experience through fresh cooking and transparent kitchen practices, which are becoming essential for consumer trust [15][19]. - The need for brands to balance operational costs with customer experience is critical, as seen in the failures of brands that raised prices post-upgrade, leading to a loss of customer base [18][20]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - The shift to fresh cooking methods requires significant investment in skilled labor and supply chain management, with "Country Base" reporting an increase in costs by approximately 46 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [17]. - Brands must navigate the complexities of maintaining quality and efficiency in food preparation while managing higher operational costs associated with fresh ingredients and skilled labor [22][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The fast food industry is expected to continue evolving towards fresh and stir-fried offerings, with brands needing to innovate and differentiate to survive in a competitive landscape [23][24]. - Successful brands will likely focus on supply chain integration, operational efficiency, and understanding consumer needs to thrive in the changing market [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) with a target price of HKD 2.24 [2][8]. Core Insights - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales have shown improvement over three consecutive quarters, with Taier's same-store daily sales declining by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year. The other brands, Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu, also showed reduced declines of 19.1% and 14.8% respectively [2][8]. - The company is actively implementing its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end, reinforcing its strategy of fresh ingredients [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 6,074 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%. However, a decline of 9.1% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 9.4% and 7.7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 56 million in 2024, with a dramatic increase to HKD 150 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 168.7%. This trend continues with projected profits of HKD 204 million and HKD 242 million in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from HKD 0.04 in 2024 to HKD 0.11 in 2025, and further to HKD 0.15 and HKD 0.17 in the following years [4][9]. Operational Insights - The total number of restaurants, including franchises, reached 686 by September 30, 2025, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [8]. - The average table turnover rate for Taier was 3.3, with stable average spending per customer at HKD 74 for Taier and HKD 100 for Song Hotpot [8]. - The strategic focus has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [8]. Growth Drivers - The core growth driver is the accelerated rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model," which is expected to enhance brand positioning and customer experience [8]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting increased confidence in its operational strategy and market recovery [8].