Core Insights - Jiumaojiu Group (09922.HK) reported a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands, with Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu experiencing year-on-year decreases of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively in Q3 2025, although the declines narrowed compared to Q2, indicating effective operational adjustments and brand upgrades [1][4] - The Chinese dining market is undergoing a significant transformation in consumer perception of "value," particularly among younger consumers who now equate it with a combination of "cost-performance" and "experience," prompting brands to enhance dining environments, service quality, and social attributes to meet new market demands [1] Company Strategy - Jiumaojiu Group's strategic adjustments are representative of industry trends, with its core brand Taier launching the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrade and layout optimization, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which aligns with consumer demands for quality and freshness [3][4] - As of the announcement date, Taier has established 106 new model restaurants, with same-store daily sales showing continuous improvement for three consecutive quarters, particularly achieving positive year-on-year growth in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai in Q3 [4] - The group plans to accelerate the rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, aiming to expand to over 200 locations by the end of 2025 due to positive market feedback [4] Brand Development - Song Hotpot is focusing on dual upgrades in product offerings and atmosphere, enhancing its fresh product categories and positioning a joyful atmosphere as a core brand asset, transforming dining into a fun and quality social space to attract younger customers [4] - Jiumaojiu's Northwest Cuisine brand is targeting the children's dining sector by developing children's meals, opening experience stores, and incorporating interactive activities to increase family customer loyalty and market competitiveness [4] - The average customer spending level across the main brands has remained relatively stable over several quarters, indicating a shift from reliance on short-term promotions to strengthening product quality and enhancing customer experience, marking a critical step in adapting to the new market normal [4]

Core Insights - The company reported an improvement in same-store sales across its three main brands, with Taier showing the most significant recovery, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a decline of 19.0% in the first half of the year [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, reflecting successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] - The company continues to implement its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end [1][2] Group 2: Store Structure and Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) reached 686, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [2] - The company has shifted its strategic focus from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [2] - Taier's self-operated table turnover rate was 3.3, with a stable average spending of 74 yuan per customer [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in growth drivers [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3] - A target price of 2.24 HKD is set for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated implementation of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to CNY 150 million, CNY 204 million, and CNY 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2x, 11.2x, and 9.4x [1] - The target price for 2026 is set at HKD 2.24, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network and Customer Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, and Jiumaojiu 64 [2] - The table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions; Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu have turnover rates of 2.4 and 2.5 respectively [2] - The average spending per customer at Taier's self-operated stores is CNY 74, while Song Hotpot's is CNY 100, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has shifted its strategy from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] - The "5.0 Fresh Model" focuses on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, with 106 locations implementing this model by the end of September, and plans to accelerate promotion to over 200 locations by year-end [2]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated deployment of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times [1] - The target price is set at 2.24 HKD based on a 14 times PE for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store average daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating effective store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, Jiumaojiu 64, and others [2] - The average table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions [2] Consumer Experience and Strategy - The average consumer spending at Taier's self-operated stores is 74 RMB, while Song Hotpot is 100 RMB, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] - The company's strategy has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product strength and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] Model Implementation - The "5.0 Fresh Model" is being rapidly implemented, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which has led to brand upgrades and improved customer experiences [2] - As of the end of September, 106 locations have adopted the "5.0 Fresh Model," with plans to accelerate promotion to exceed 200 locations by the end of the fourth quarter [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) with a target price of HKD 2.24 [2][8]. Core Insights - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales have shown improvement over three consecutive quarters, with Taier's same-store daily sales declining by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year. The other brands, Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu, also showed reduced declines of 19.1% and 14.8% respectively [2][8]. - The company is actively implementing its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end, reinforcing its strategy of fresh ingredients [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 6,074 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%. However, a decline of 9.1% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 9.4% and 7.7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 56 million in 2024, with a dramatic increase to HKD 150 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 168.7%. This trend continues with projected profits of HKD 204 million and HKD 242 million in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from HKD 0.04 in 2024 to HKD 0.11 in 2025, and further to HKD 0.15 and HKD 0.17 in the following years [4][9]. Operational Insights - The total number of restaurants, including franchises, reached 686 by September 30, 2025, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [8]. - The average table turnover rate for Taier was 3.3, with stable average spending per customer at HKD 74 for Taier and HKD 100 for Song Hotpot [8]. - The strategic focus has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [8]. Growth Drivers - The core growth driver is the accelerated rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model," which is expected to enhance brand positioning and customer experience [8]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting increased confidence in its operational strategy and market recovery [8].

Core Insights - The well-known restaurant group Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) reported that same-store sales for its main brands continue to decline as of Q3 2025 [2] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - The same-store daily sales changes for major brands as of September 30, 2025, show declines: Tai Er (self-operated) -9.3%, Chong Hot Pot -19.1%, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated) -14.8% [3] - Despite the declines, Tai Er's same-store sales drop has been narrowing for three consecutive quarters, with positive growth in key markets like Beijing and Shanghai [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The improvement in Tai Er's performance is closely related to the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, which focus on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef [3] - As of the announcement date, Tai Er has established 106 new model restaurants in mainland China and plans to accelerate this rollout, expecting to exceed 200 by the end of 2025 [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The table turnover rate, a key indicator of restaurant operational efficiency, shows differentiation: Tai Er's self-operated stores have a turnover rate of 3.3, compared to Chong Hot Pot's 2.4 and Jiumaojiu's 2.5 [4] - Customer average spending has remained relatively stable across major brands, indicating a strategic shift from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience [4] Group 4: Challenges and Competition - Chong Hot Pot, anticipated to be the "third growth curve," has not met expectations, with a 3.5% decline in revenue and a significant 59.6% drop in segment profit in the first half of the year [4] - The competitive hot pot market presents challenges for Chong Hot Pot, particularly in product differentiation, as its youthful atmosphere has not effectively translated into sustained consumer attraction [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu (09922) shares increased by nearly 3%, closing at HKD 2.1 with a trading volume of HKD 17.03 million, following the announcement of its Q3 2025 performance metrics [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the table turnover rates for Taier (self-operated only), Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated only) were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively [1] - Same-store average daily sales for Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu decreased year-on-year by 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively [1] - The decline in same-store average daily sales for Taier and Jiumaojiu has been narrowing, indicating the effectiveness of the company's operational adjustments and brand upgrade initiatives [1] Group 2: Operational Developments - Taier's same-store average daily sales have shown improvement for three consecutive quarters, with positive year-on-year growth in cities like Beijing and Shanghai during Q3 [1] - As of the announcement date, the number of Taier's "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants in mainland China reached 106 [1] - The new model restaurants have received positive feedback, prompting the company to accelerate their rollout in Q4, with expectations to increase the number of new model restaurants to over 200 by the end of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu, with year-on-year decreases of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively for Q3 2025 [1] - The company has a total of 686 stores as of September 30, 2025, with Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu having 530, 71, and 64 stores respectively [1] - The same-store daily sales decline is showing signs of improvement, particularly for Taier, which has seen a continuous improvement for three consecutive quarters, with positive year-on-year growth in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1] Store Performance - The same-store turnover rates for Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu are 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively for Q3 2025 [1] - The company is focusing on operational adjustments and brand upgrades, which are beginning to show positive results [1] New Business Model - As of the announcement date, there are 106 "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants in mainland China, emphasizing fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef [2] - The company plans to accelerate the rollout of this new model, expecting to have over 200 such restaurants by the end of 2025 [2] - Customer spending per visit has remained stable across major brands, indicating a strategic shift from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent closure of all Tai Er Sauerkraut Fish stores in Shenyang has raised concerns about the brand's performance and consumer interest [3][6]. Company Performance - Tai Er Sauerkraut Fish has confirmed that all its stores in Shenyang have closed, with the last one shutting down on September 1, 2023 [6]. - The company has seen a significant decline in its self-operated restaurant count, dropping from 612 to 547 in the first half of the year, a reduction of 65 stores [8]. - The revenue from Tai Er Sauerkraut Fish was reported at 19.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, contributing to a total revenue decline of 10.14% for its parent company, Jiumaojiu [8]. Industry Context - The overall market for sauerkraut fish restaurants has faced challenges, with a net decrease of 3,331 stores in the past year despite 7,256 new openings, indicating a tough competitive environment [8]. - The rise of pre-prepared dishes has further squeezed the survival space for traditional dine-in restaurants like Tai Er Sauerkraut Fish [8].

Core Insights - The well-known restaurant brand Tai Er Suancaiyu is facing a wave of store closures in multiple cities, raising concerns about its expansion bottleneck or operational adjustments [1] - Despite the closure of one store in Jinan, the remaining four locations continue to see high customer traffic, indicating a mixed market response [2] Group 1: Store Performance - One store in Jinan has closed, while four others remain busy with long queues during peak hours, suggesting a divergence in performance across locations [2] - The atmosphere in the busy stores remains lively, with high seating occupancy and a bustling environment, indicating that the brand still retains a loyal customer base [2] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - Loyal customers express continued support for the brand, emphasizing the importance of taste and unique dining experience [3] - Some consumers express concerns about potential declines in quality or brand appeal due to the recent closures, although their actual dining experiences remain satisfactory [3] Group 3: Brand Strategy - Tai Er Suancaiyu has launched a significant brand upgrade initiative called "5.0 Fresh Model," focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef [4] - The brand's strategy includes renovations of several stores and the introduction of open kitchen concepts to enhance transparency and freshness perception among consumers [5] - This strategic shift aims to address market criticisms regarding the use of pre-prepared dishes and to cater to the growing consumer demand for fresh and healthy dining options [5]