Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's self-owned brand business is in a rapid growth phase, with strong brand incubation and product iteration capabilities, expected to continue outperforming the industry and increasing market share [2][6] - The high-end brand strategy is clear, with the sub-brand "弗列加特" maintaining high growth, and product structure upgrades driving domestic gross margin improvements. However, net profit is temporarily under pressure due to a decline in export revenue and rising expenses [2][6] - The projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 1.75 and 2.24 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 49X and 38X, making it a key recommendation [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.03%, and a net profit of 513 million yuan, up 9.05% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 1.517 billion yuan, a 21.85% increase, but net profit decreased by 16.65% [6] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 42.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved profitability from domestic self-owned brands and product structure upgrades [6][10] - Sales expenses increased significantly, with a sales expense ratio of 23.3%, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased marketing efforts and competitive pressures [6][10] Brand and Market Dynamics - The self-owned brand revenue is expected to grow at around 40% domestically, while export OEM business is projected to decline by approximately 7% due to tariff impacts and price adjustments [10] - The high-end sub-brand "弗列加特" continues to show strong growth, and the main brand "麦富迪" is also growing faster than the industry average, supported by the mid-to-high-end "Barf" and "奶弗" series [10] - The direct sales channel, which has a higher gross margin, is rapidly increasing its share, indicating effective channel optimization [10]

Core Insights - The current trend in the pet food industry is focused on baked grain products, but there is a significant shift towards more refined product offerings that cater to evolving consumer demands [1][2][3] - The fifth Pet Expo held in Shanghai showcased an increase in exhibition space and participating brands, indicating sustained high demand in the pet sector [1][2] Industry Trends - The pet food market is experiencing a concentration trend, with fewer new brands emerging, primarily from overseas, as leading companies leverage their advantages in product development, funding, and brand strength [1][2] - Baked grain products remain a key focus, with sales on platforms like Tmall showing a significant increase, reaching 1.258 billion in Q1 2025, a 94% year-on-year growth [2] Product Innovation - Leading companies are intensifying their innovation efforts in baked grain products to differentiate themselves in a competitive market, with new product launches emphasizing unique nutritional benefits [3][4] - Beyond baked grains, companies are introducing a variety of functional and concept products, such as fresh meal boxes and specialized cat food targeting longevity and health [4] Marketing Strategies - The industry is witnessing a shift towards online marketing, with major brands using offline exhibitions as key marketing and sales opportunities, while smaller brands still rely on distributors for brand visibility [5] - The trend towards online sales channels is expected to continue, with companies that excel in online operations likely to capture a larger market share [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The fifth "It Expo" held from May 7 to 11, 2025, in Shanghai showcased a significant increase in exhibition area and participating brands, indicating sustained high demand in the pet food sector [1][12] - The trend of market concentration continues, with fewer new brands emerging, primarily focusing on international brands entering the domestic market [2][21] - Baked pet food remains a key product direction, with sales in Q1 2025 reaching 258 million, a year-on-year increase of 94%, accounting for 14.48% of the market [2][29] - The competition in the baked food segment is intensifying, leading to increased product differentiation and innovation among leading companies [3][40] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more refined product offerings beyond baked food, focusing on specific functionalities and concepts [4][43] Summary by Sections 1. Expo Scale and Market Trends - The 2025 "It Expo" featured over 10,000 square meters of exhibition space and more than 8,000 participating brands, doubling from the previous year [12] - The pet food industry growth rate was 9% in 2024, with a notable decline in investment activities for smaller companies [21] 2. Product & R&D Innovations - Baked food is a product of traditional puffed food technology upgrades, offering higher nutritional value and meat content [26] - The sales of baked food have surged, with a 313% increase in sales volume and a 338% increase in product variety in 2023 [29] - Leading companies are innovating in baked food products, introducing unique formulations aimed at enhancing pet health [40][43] 3. Marketing & Channel Strategies - The online sales penetration rate for pet food reached 65.9% by 2023, with significant growth in platforms like Douyin [54] - The expo has become a crucial marketing node, with leading companies focusing on online sales strategies rather than traditional distribution [59] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of strong R&D capabilities among leading companies, recommending investments in firms like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. for their innovative product developments [5][60]