Core Viewpoint - The economic performance at the beginning of the year is expected to be strong, particularly in the midstream export sector, benefiting from the global manufacturing upturn, increased AI investment, and higher overseas gross margins compared to domestic ones, leading to stronger export momentum [2] Group 1: External Demand - External demand is resilient, supporting exports, with midstream manufacturing expected to be significantly strong. Exports are projected to grow by around 7% year-on-year in dollar terms for January-February, while imports are expected to increase by around 9% [4] - Key indicators include: - January's JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI at 50.9%, up from 50.4% in December [4] - February's average manufacturing PMI for the US, EU, UK, and Japan at 52.08%, higher than January's 51.3% and December's 50.3% [4] - Combined export growth for Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia reaching 27.7% in January, up from 13.8% in December [4] - Container throughput at Chinese ports increasing by 12.4% year-on-year in the first nine weeks of the year [4] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - AI investment demand is expected to significantly boost electronic exports, with South Korea's export growth reaching 31.4% in January, driven by strong demand from AI investments and a surge in storage chip prices, leading to a 115.2% increase in semiconductor and electronic product exports [5] - Machinery and equipment exports are also showing strong performance, with a combined export growth of 45% for Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia in January, significantly up from 16.9% in December [5] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Fixed asset investment (FAI) is expected to slightly rebound to around 2% growth in January-February, primarily driven by increased investment from central and state-owned enterprises [6] - Retail sales are projected to grow at around 2.4%, with essential consumption (excluding six subsidized items and price changes) growing at 5.0%, while subsidized items are expected to decline by 8.0% [6] - Industrial production growth is estimated at around 5.5%, supported by strong freight activity, with highway freight truck traffic showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6] Group 4: Price Trends - February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase from 0.2% to around 0.9% [8] - Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.1%, with a year-on-year improvement from -1.4% to around -1.2% [8] Group 5: Financial Sector - New social financing is expected to reach approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in February, a decrease of 880 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with the stock growth rate expected to fall to around 7.9% [9] - M2 is projected to grow by around 8.8% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to grow by around 4% [9]

External Demand - Export growth is expected to be around 7% year-on-year in USD terms for January-February, while imports are projected to grow by 9%[2] - The global manufacturing PMI for January was 50.9%, up from 50.4% in December, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[11] - Container throughput at Chinese ports increased by 12.4% year-on-year in the first nine weeks of the year, compared to 10.7% in the same period last year[11] Midstream Manufacturing - AI investment is expected to significantly boost electronic exports, with South Korea's export growth reaching 31.4% in January, up from 13.4% in December[3] - Semiconductor and electronic product exports surged by 115.2% in January, compared to 17.5% in December[12] - Mechanical and electrical equipment exports from Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia grew by 45% in January, a substantial increase from 16.9% in December[3] Domestic Demand - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth is projected to recover to around 2% for January-February, driven by increased investment from central enterprises[4] - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 2.4%, with essential consumption (excluding subsidies) growing at 5% and subsidized items declining by 8%[4] - Industrial production growth is estimated at 5.5%, supported by strong freight activity, although automotive production may weaken due to subsidy policy adjustments[4] Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to approximately 0.9% year-on-year in February, up from 0.2% in January, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and rising oil prices[5] - PPI is projected to improve slightly to -1.2% year-on-year, compared to -1.4% in January, with the non-ferrous sector stabilizing[5] Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to be around 1.2 trillion yuan in February, a decrease of 880 billion yuan year-on-year, with the stock growth rate falling to approximately 7.9%[6] - M2 growth is projected at 8.8% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to be around 4%[6]