Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Shanghai Bank, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the transformation of the credit structure and the resolution of risks, which are expected to solidify the bank's fundamentals. It highlights that the bank's return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to stabilize as the credit structure evolves and risks are systematically addressed [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Valuation - Since 2020, Shanghai Bank's valuation has remained at the bottom of the industry due to adjustments in credit structure and profitability challenges. The bank's ROE has been consistently lower than the average of listed city commercial banks, with a 2023 ROE of 10.4%, which is 2.30 percentage points below the average [4][22]. 2. Market Expectations - The report identifies three major changes that could stabilize ROE: 1. A decisive optimization of the credit structure, with significant reductions in consumer loans and corporate real estate loans since 2019 [6]. 2. Gradual resolution of asset quality pressures, with a notable decrease in retail non-performing loan (NPL) rates [6]. 3. Effective management of funding costs, which is expected to stabilize loan pricing [6]. 3. New Valuation Point - The report suggests that with the transformation of the credit structure and the orderly resolution of risks, Shanghai Bank's fundamentals are entering a stabilization phase. The bank's high dividend yield and potential for valuation recovery in the banking sector are highlighted, with an expected 18% upside based on a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.6 for 2025 [6][9]. 4. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report concludes that the bank's fundamentals are stabilizing, supported by low valuation and high dividend yield. It anticipates a net profit growth of 2.1%, 3.5%, and 5.6% for 2025-2027, respectively, and recommends an "Accumulate" rating based on these projections [9][10].

Capital Adequacy and Business Performance - As of June 2025, the capital adequacy ratios are as follows: Core Tier 1 capital ratio at 9.31%, Tier 1 capital ratio at 10.85%, and total capital ratio at 13.26% [2] - The bank's corporate deposits reached CNY 2.3671 trillion, a 5.4% increase from the previous year, while corporate loans amounted to CNY 1.6825 trillion, up 4.7% [2] Loan Yield and Quality - The average loan yield for the first half of 2025 was 4.03%, a decrease of 76 basis points year-on-year; corporate loan yield was 3.14%, down 56 basis points; personal loan yield was 5.04%, down 86 basis points [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for personal loans was 1.27%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous year [5] Real Estate Loan Management - The NPL ratio for corporate real estate loans was 2.21%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points from the previous year, attributed to external market conditions [3] Retail Loan Strategy - Personal loan balance as of June 2025 was CNY 1.726 trillion, a decrease of 2.3%, with mortgage loans making up 64.3% of the total [4] - The bank is focusing on optimizing loan structures and enhancing risk management throughout the loan lifecycle [4] Wealth Management Performance - The bank had 1.48 million wealth clients, a 1.3% increase, with private banking clients at 300,000, up 3.2% [6] - Wealth management service trust balance increased by 16.3% to CNY 217.1 billion, while the sales of non-monetary public funds dropped by 38.3% [6] Future Directions - The bank aims to enhance financial services for the real economy, strengthen risk management, and deepen strategic transformation in the second half of 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the banking industry in the first half of the year is better than expected, with key characteristics including revenue and profit exceeding expectations, a focus on urban renewal for lending, and a stable overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, with corporate loans performing significantly better than personal loans [1][2][6]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - Many banks report that their revenue and profit for the first half of the year are better than expected, despite a slowdown in revenue growth and a decline in profit indicators [2][3]. - A regional bank indicated that its revenue and profit exceeded original expectations due to increased credit lending and resilience in various industries [2][3]. - Among the five listed city commercial banks that have released performance reports, four achieved double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with three showing a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 16% [2][3]. Group 2: Lending Trends - Urban renewal has become a new focus for corporate real estate lending, with banks increasing support for government-led urban renewal and affordable housing projects [4][5]. - Some banks have reported a rebound in personal mortgage loans in the second quarter, with one bank indicating that its mortgage loan issuance remained stable against market trends [5]. - Overall, banks are cautious about personal mortgage loans while prioritizing corporate lending, particularly in urban renewal projects [5][4]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The non-performing loan ratio has remained stable, with no significant increase observed in the first half of the year [6][7]. - Among the five listed banks, the non-performing loan ratios have either remained flat or decreased compared to the beginning of the year, with specific banks reporting ratios of 0.76% and 1.12% [6]. - Corporate loans have shown significantly better non-performing loan ratios compared to retail and personal loans, attributed to stronger asset quality in corporate sectors [6][7].

Retail Strategy and Performance - The bank maintains a steadfast retail strategy, focusing on customer-centric approaches to drive high-quality and sustainable development in retail business [1] - As of the end of 2024, personal loan balance reached CNY 17,671.68 billion, with a significant reduction in high-risk loans and an increase in the proportion of mortgage loans by 4.0 percentage points to 62.8% [3] - The bank's net interest margin for 2024 was 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to market interest rate declines and proactive reduction of high-risk retail assets [1] Corporate Business Overview - By the end of 2024, corporate loan balance was CNY 16,069 billion, reflecting a growth of 12.4% year-on-year, while corporate deposit balance was CNY 22,465 billion, up 2.1% [2] - The bank aims to enhance support for key sectors such as advanced manufacturing, green finance, and rural revitalization through focused financing efforts [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank reported operating income of CNY 1,466.95 billion, a decline of 10.9% year-on-year, with net profit at CNY 445.08 billion, down 4.2% [4] - The bank's management expenses decreased by 11.7% to CNY 405.82 billion, while credit and other asset impairment losses fell by 16.4% to CNY 494.28 billion [4] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The personal loan non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 0.04 percentage points by the end of 2024, with specific NPL ratios for housing loans at 0.47%, credit card loans at 2.56%, and consumption loans at 1.35% [5] - The bank emphasizes differentiated risk management policies and proactive asset structure adjustments to enhance asset quality and support sustainable retail business development [5] Real Estate Loan Management - The bank's corporate real estate loan NPL ratio was 1.79% at the end of 2024, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to external environmental pressures [6] - Continuous monitoring and management of real estate loans are prioritized to mitigate risks associated with project financing [6] Dividend Policy - The bank plans to distribute cash dividends of CNY 6.08 per 10 shares for the year 2024, totaling CNY 117.99 billion, which represents 28.32% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders [7] - The bank aims to enhance the stability and predictability of dividends while ensuring compliance with capital adequacy requirements [7]