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餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报-20250720
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, and Haidilao, while Budweiser Asia is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - Starbucks plans to sell a partial stake in its China business, with valuation estimates around $9 billion [5]. - Pop Mart anticipates a revenue increase of no less than 200% year-on-year for 1H, with net profit expected to grow by at least 350% [5]. - The dishwasher market in China is projected to reach a scale of RMB 30 billion within five years, doubling from the current market size of approximately RMB 15 billion [5]. Weekly Performance Summary - Key performers in the F&B sector include Guoquan (+11.5%), Green Tea Group (+8.9%), and Auntea Jenny (+6.7%) [6]. - In the home appliance sector, Ecovacs saw a significant increase of 20.9%, followed by Roborock (+9.7%) and Sanhua (+7.5%) [6]. - Underperformers in the F&B sector include Guming (-13.4%) and Chagee (-10.9%) [6].
瑞幸打工人,想让黎辉更佛系
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-19 10:11
"外卖平台都约谈了,这场外卖大战什么时候才能结束啊?"一位咖啡师向「市象」问道。 近段时间,外卖平台上演补贴大战,咖啡价格不断卷出新低。「市象」观察发现,在美团外卖、饿了么 (淘宝闪购)、京东外卖的全力补贴下,社交媒体上出现大量的"2元喝瑞幸","2元喝库迪"相关内容。 在此情况下,不少消费者大力抢购,有用户在冰箱中堆满咖啡。 对品牌管理层来说,外卖大战对品牌有利好的一面。咖啡曾在中国长期面临渗透率压力,借外卖平台补 贴战的东风,现制咖啡正在走入千家万户。 但对连锁咖啡门店的一线员工来说,近段时间的外卖大战是一场噩梦。 "每天脚底板都要站断了。"瑞幸员工孙少对「市象」感叹:"半个小时做了50杯,有时一个人一早上要 做300杯。"也有瑞幸员工在社交媒体上表示,晚上说梦话时,都在喊没冰了快铲冰。 此前瑞幸刚刚经历董事长的变更。4月29日瑞幸咖啡宣布,郭谨一不再担任公司董事长,瑞幸咖啡最大 股东大钲资本的董事长兼首席执行官黎辉重新加入董事会并担任董事长职务。 这并不意味着瑞幸咖啡的战略方向会发生改变。高层变动后,郭谨一继续留任公司首席执行官及董事, 而黎辉在接任后表示:"我很荣幸能够在瑞幸咖啡这个重要时刻重新加入董 ...
瑞幸等待下一个爆款
远川研究所· 2025-03-13 12:35
Core Viewpoint - The coffee chain industry is experiencing a significant shift as price wars come to an end, with Luckin Coffee focusing on cost control and operational efficiency after aggressive expansion in 2023 [1][3]. Industry Overview - In 2023, Luckin Coffee opened 8,034 new stores, which decreased to 6,092 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in expansion as the industry consolidates [1]. - The coffee bean prices surged over 70% due to extreme weather in Brazil and Vietnam, which supply nearly 60% of the world's coffee beans [3][4]. - The rising costs of raw materials, particularly coffee beans, have a substantial impact on the overall cost structure of coffee chains, which typically see raw material costs exceed rent and labor combined by 50% [3][4]. Company Strategy - Luckin Coffee has shifted its procurement strategy by directly sourcing coffee beans from Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia, avoiding about 15% in trading costs and benefiting from over 10% in bulk purchasing discounts [5][6]. - In 2024, Luckin signed a five-year agreement to purchase 240,000 tons of coffee beans from Brazil, more than tripling its previous procurement [5][6]. - The company has invested in its own roasting facilities, which allows for further cost reductions in the supply chain [6]. Financial Performance - Despite the increase in store openings, Luckin's operating profit margin decreased to 10.3% in 2024, down 1.8% from 2023, as rent and operational costs surged [12]. - The total rent and operating expenses rose to 8.54 billion yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year, significantly outpacing the 38% revenue growth [12]. - Luckin's raw material cost ratio decreased from 43.7% to 40.9% in 2024, indicating efforts to manage costs despite rising prices [6]. Market Dynamics - The entry of competitors like Kudi Coffee has forced Luckin to accelerate its store expansion and increase store density, with new stores often located within close proximity to existing ones [11]. - Kudi's aggressive pricing strategies initially pressured Luckin, leading to a significant drop in its profit margins [10][12]. - The competitive landscape has resulted in approximately 45,000 coffee shops exiting the market in 2024, five times the number in 2023 [4]. Product Innovation - Luckin Coffee has launched over 450 new products from 2021 to 2024, with significant hits like the "生椰拿铁" (Coconut Latte) driving user growth [16][17]. - However, the absence of new blockbuster products in 2024 has contributed to a decline in single-store user numbers, highlighting the challenges of maintaining innovation at scale [18][20]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as "轻轻茉莉·轻乳茶" (Light Jasmine Milk Tea), has shown promise but has not yet met internal sales expectations due to increased store density [19][20].