Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend. However, due to high inventory and limited demand improvement, if the supply - side production cut is less than expected, the upside space may be restricted [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract of the futures variety rose sharply and closed with a positive line. The full - day trading volume was 510,306 lots, and the open interest was 311,097 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 has weakened. The quotation of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 on the day was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis on the day was - 205 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous week. After several consecutive weeks of growth, it slowed down for the first time. The weekly output of industrial silicon of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Sichuan was 2,135 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily chart, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent shock range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator had a golden cross above the zero axis. However, the current price is close to the pressure level in the range of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - The fundamentals of industrial silicon supply and demand have not changed significantly for the time being, but the cost side supports the price. The market expects the supply side to shrink later. Combined with the strong rally of the market today, the short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in the short term but may face a risk of decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The price of polysilicon is also in high - level consolidation, and the pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the terminal demand pressure is large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.03% to 8,665 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, and the enterprise operation rate has steadily increased [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of organic silicon is temporarily tightened due to an accident at a large factory, but the supply pressure has increased recently. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to potential supply disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market strengthened again. It is expected that the silicon price will remain high in the short term. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, try to go long on dips, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material decreased 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased 0.10% to 51.44 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased 0.10% to 49.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased 3.93% to 53,520 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: Many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August, the trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is difficult [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to supply disturbances and high downstream raw material inventory, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term. The pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Other Information - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of the new - energy on - grid electricity price. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new - energy projects in the city will enter the power market [1]. - On the evening of September 9, JinkoSolar (688223) announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar New Materials Co., Ltd. to Dico Co., Ltd. (300842) for 80 million yuan [1].