| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250925：高位整理 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/25 指标 单位 | | | | | 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | 元/吨 9,200.00 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | | 元/吨 9,020.00 1.06% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | | | 元/吨 180.00 -95.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | | | | | 元/千克 51.00 -0.29% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | | 元/吨 51,380.00 2.23% | | 基差 元/吨 | | | | | -380.00 -1,270.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | 元/吨 9,200.00 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | | 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain has experienced a price increase across multiple products since September, with N-type polysilicon reaching 51.55 yuan/kg, up 2.55 yuan/kg from September 1 [1] - The price of N-type silicon wafers increased to 1.31 yuan/piece, up 0.07 yuan/piece, while photovoltaic glass prices rose to 14.35 yuan/m², an increase of 0.1 yuan/m² [1] - The price of photovoltaic EVA material has also been on the rise, reaching approximately 10,500 to 10,800 yuan/ton by September 12, an increase of nearly 500 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [1] Group 2 - Policy measures have intensified efforts to combat disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for lawful and regulated practices [2] - The N-type polysilicon market has stabilized, with prices rising from 34.5 yuan/kg to 51.55 yuan/kg, a 49.4% increase, while N-type silicon wafers saw a 50.6% increase from 0.87 yuan/piece to 1.31 yuan/piece [2] - The price of photovoltaic EVA material has been increasing since early August, with current spot prices around 11,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 14% increase [2] Group 3 - In contrast to the significant price increases in polysilicon and silicon wafers, the price of photovoltaic modules has remained relatively stable, with N-type 210mm module prices at 0.682 yuan/watt, showing little change since August 1 [3] - The market sentiment among manufacturers is optimistic due to the support from anti-involution measures, although the downstream module prices are not expected to rise significantly due to low returns in the power station segment [3] - The supply of photovoltaic EVA material is tight, with companies maintaining strong pricing power, suggesting potential further price increases in the short term [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in the short term but may face a risk of decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The price of polysilicon is also in high - level consolidation, and the pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the terminal demand pressure is large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.03% to 8,665 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, and the enterprise operation rate has steadily increased [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of organic silicon is temporarily tightened due to an accident at a large factory, but the supply pressure has increased recently. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to potential supply disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market strengthened again. It is expected that the silicon price will remain high in the short term. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, try to go long on dips, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material decreased 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased 0.10% to 51.44 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased 0.10% to 49.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased 3.93% to 53,520 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: Many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August, the trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is difficult [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to supply disturbances and high downstream raw material inventory, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term. The pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Other Information - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of the new - energy on - grid electricity price. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new - energy projects in the city will enter the power market [1]. - On the evening of September 9, JinkoSolar (688223) announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar New Materials Co., Ltd. to Dico Co., Ltd. (300842) for 80 million yuan [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue low-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and follow-up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The price of polysilicon may decline in the future, and the previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices. The inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon also remained flat at 10,900 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.53% to 9,310 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, furnace starts in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace starts in Sichuan. It is expected that some silicon enterprises in Yunnan will have new capacity put into operation in April, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north. On the demand side, there is no obvious improvement, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the reduction in supply after the production cut of some large northern factories, but the lack of improvement in demand, the short - term silicon price is expected to continue low - level consolidation, and the follow - up should focus on the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material remained flat at 40 yuan/kg compared to the previous day; polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.68% to 41,550 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut situation, and it is expected that the output in April will still be within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, as the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Considering that the self - disciplined production cut and the rush - installation tide still support the polysilicon price, but the follow - up demand may weaken, the price center may move down. Previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices, and the inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Other Products - **DMC**: The domestic DMC market has poor trading recently. Due to high inventory, the mainstream trading center of DMC has moved down to 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the future [1] - **Photovoltaic Cells**: Photovoltaic cell prices have started to decline, with different sizes showing different market trends. The price of Topcon210RN batteries has dropped significantly, with a decline of over 12% [1]