一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米近月 2603 合约持仓下降，3 月减仓 6 万、5 月增仓 3 万，资金离场， | | | | 价格波动下降。从东北市场来看，市场购销活跃度降低。深加工补货接近尾声， | | | | 外销较为有限，烘干塔也基本放假停收。目前价格暂维持稳中略偏弱的状态。山 | | | | 东、河北深加工企业价格基本维持稳定，价格有涨有跌，变动幅度有限，主力价 | | | 玉米 | 格维持稳定。随着春节临近，市场基层购销购销相对平稳，贸易商存货意愿增强， | 震荡偏弱 | | | 市场价格整体有所提升。河南个别地区受深加工企业价格下跌影响，基层价格窄 | | | | 幅下调。销区市场玉米价格平稳运行。节前下游采购活动放缓，港口贸易商报价 | | | | 基本稳定，市场暂无较大波动。春节假期前，价格将维持窄幅震荡的格局，出现 | | | | 大幅波动的可能性较小。技术上看，春节假期临近，期货市场资金离场期价波动 | | | | 性下降，短线参与为主。 | | | | 周四，CBOT 大豆延续涨势，受大豆乐观需求提振。美国农业 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，玉米近月 2603 合约继续减仓，日持仓减少 5.8 万手，5 月合约持仓增加 2 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 万手，玉米加权合约持仓下降 3.5 万张，玉米近、远月合约期价先跌后涨。周初 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强运行，延续周末上涨的趋势，但上涨动力不足。山东 深加工企业早间剩余车辆 500 台以上，深加工企业全天卸货量尚可，部分库存较 | | | | 低企业继续上调 6-20 元/吨。随着春节临近，农户售粮意愿增加，但目前基层粮 | | | 玉米 | 点仍然未出现明显上量的情况，农户整体售粮节奏相对平均。销区市场玉米价格 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 主流小幅下跌。周末北港价格下跌，叠加期货盘面偏弱，销区港口贸易商报价松 | | | | 动。下游饲料需求一般，市场成交偏淡。技术上，玉米 3 月合约在 2300 整数关 | | | | 口遇阻回落，多头资金减仓离场，期价调整。受现货和近月合约调整因素影响， | | | | 玉米 5、7 月合约跳空下行。此前获利多单止盈离场后，5、7 月合约短空参与 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米近月 2603 合约继续大幅减仓，日持仓减少 11 万手，5 月合约跟随减 | | | | 仓，玉米价钱合约持仓下降 13 万张，玉米近、远月合约期价联动下行，日跌幅 | | | | 扩大。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强运行，延续周末上涨的趋势，但上涨动力 | | | | 不足。山东深加工企业今日早间剩余车辆 500 台以上，深加工企业全天卸货量尚 | | | | 可，部分库存较低企业继续上调 6-20 元/吨。随着春节临近，农户售粮意愿增加， | | | | 但目前基层粮点仍然未出现明显上量的情况，今年农户整体售粮节奏相对平均。 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 销区市场玉米价格主流小幅下跌。周末北港价格下跌，叠加期货盘面偏弱，销区 | | | | 港口贸易商报价松动。下游饲料需求一般，市场成交偏淡。技术上，玉米 3 月合 | | | | 约在 2300 整数关口遇阻回落，多头资金减仓离场，期价调整。受现货和近月合 | | | | 约调整因素影响，玉米 5、7 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering stopping imports of edible oil from China as a retaliatory measure against China's reduced purchases of U.S. soybeans, which could lead to a loss of 16 million tons of soybean orders for the U.S. [1] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The U.S. claims that China's refusal to buy American soybeans is causing difficulties for U.S. soybean farmers, prompting the consideration of halting edible oil imports from China [1] - China is the world's largest consumer of edible oil, making the U.S. strategy of stopping imports a complex issue [1] - In 2024, China's exports of edible oil to the U.S. are projected to be around 4,000 tons, valued at approximately $1 million, indicating limited impact on China's edible oil industry if the U.S. halts imports [4] Group 2: Nature of U.S. Imports from China - The U.S. primarily imports waste cooking oil from China, which is processed for use as biodiesel and other renewable energy sources, rather than traditional edible oils [5][6] - In 2024, China is expected to export over 1 million tons of waste cooking oil to the U.S., valued at over $1 billion, highlighting the significance of this trade [6] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Soybean Farmers - The U.S. soybean export structure is heavily reliant on whole soybeans, with 78% of exports being whole beans, while soybean meal and oil account for only 21% and 1%, respectively [13] - The reduction in Chinese purchases could create a significant gap in the U.S. soybean market, as China is the primary buyer of U.S. whole soybeans [13][15] - U.S. farmers are facing challenges in finding alternative markets for their soybeans, leading to price declines and a difficult situation for the agricultural sector [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a significant impact on US biodiesel production. The adjustment of the tax credit policy in 2025 has significantly reduced the import volume of Chinese UCO. From January to July this year, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Due to the US bonded area policy, some imports of Chinese UCO will continue. The reduction in US biomass diesel production will increase US petroleum diesel demand by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel, a decline of 0.77%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.70% at 440 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 623,000 barrels to 8.73 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 640,000 barrels to 2.947 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 215,000 barrels to 6.135 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global energy demand is growing, Russia has the potential to further increase oil production, but currently has no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and trade wars pose risks to energy supply [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will impose targeted sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak told the Saudi energy minister that joint actions within the framework of OPEC+ are in the long - term national interests of both countries and will strongly promote the economic development of both countries [1] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a major impact on US biodiesel production. The 2025 tax credit policy adjustment has reduced Chinese UCO imports. From January to July, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Some imports will continue due to the bonded area policy. US petroleum diesel demand will increase by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

【环球时报综合报道】据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间14日在社媒平台上称，中国"故意不 购买美国大豆，给美国豆农造成困难"，这构成"经济敌对行为"。他补充说："我们正在考虑终止与中国 在食用油及其他贸易领域的业务往来，以此作为报复。例如，我们自己可以轻松生产食用油，我们不需 要从中国购买。" 彭博社称，特朗普发表上述言论之际，美国农民们正苦于大豆滞销，美国政府曾表示要通过一揽子援助 计划缓解豆农压力，不过该计划因政府停摆而受阻。许多美国豆农也强调，他们更希望与中国达成贸易 协议，而不是接受救济。 美媒提到，废弃食用油进口去年就在美国掀起了讨论，有分析认为，其阻碍美国大豆压榨规模的扩大， 并取代大豆油成为美国生物燃料领域的主力。 美国问题专家吕祥15日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，生物燃料并非本届美国政府的发展重点，且 其成本高昂，整体仍属于实验性产业，无论进口量增减，对两国贸易关系的实际影响都较小。吕祥补充 说，相关数据显示，今年中国对美废弃食用油出口量较同期已大幅下降，在这一背景下仍拿此事说事， 几乎没有实际意义。（丁雅栀） 中国外交部发言人林剑15日在例行记者会上回答相关问询时表示，中方在处理中美 ...