1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report Corn - The near - month 2603 contract of corn saw a decline in positions on Thursday, with a reduction of 60,000 in March and an increase of 30,000 in May. Market trading activity in the Northeast decreased, and the price was slightly weak. The prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and Hebei were stable. Before the Spring Festival, the price will maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the possibility of significant fluctuations is small. The view is "oscillation and weakening" [1] Soybean Meal - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. U.S. soybean export net sales were 436,900 tons, a market - year low. Brazil's soybean production may exceed 180 million tons, limiting the increase. In China, soybean meal prices rose but less than the external market. The view is "oscillation" [1] Oils - On Thursday, BMD palm oil prices fell. An investigation showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January would drop to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% month - on - month decrease. Production decreased by 12% to 1.61 million tons, and exports increased by 14.9% - 17.9%. India's palm oil imports in January increased by 51%. In China, the view is "oscillation", and operations should be short - term [1] Eggs - On Thursday, the main 2603 contract of egg futures oscillated downward, closing down 1.83%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline. The view is "oscillation", and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being and focus on the changes in the willingness of the breeding end to eliminate and replenish [1] Pigs - On Thursday, the live - hog futures oscillated weakly. The daily average price of live hogs in China decreased by 0.04 yuan/kg. The view is "oscillation". In the medium and long term, the trend of live - hog production capacity reduction remains unchanged [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Indonesia plans to restrict the export of palm oil waste to support the domestic production of biodiesel and aviation fuel, aiming to reduce energy imports and become a major global aviation fuel producer [3] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and live hogs 5 - 9 [5][7][8][11] Contract Basis - The report shows contract bases including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs [14][17][19][24] Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won many awards and has rich experience. Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures. Kong Hailan is a researcher in the egg and live - hog industries at Everbright Futures [26]

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，玉米近月 2603 合约继续减仓，日持仓减少 5.8 万手，5 月合约持仓增加 2 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 万手，玉米加权合约持仓下降 3.5 万张，玉米近、远月合约期价先跌后涨。周初 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强运行，延续周末上涨的趋势，但上涨动力不足。山东 深加工企业早间剩余车辆 500 台以上，深加工企业全天卸货量尚可，部分库存较 | | | | 低企业继续上调 6-20 元/吨。随着春节临近，农户售粮意愿增加，但目前基层粮 | | | 玉米 | 点仍然未出现明显上量的情况，农户整体售粮节奏相对平均。销区市场玉米价格 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 主流小幅下跌。周末北港价格下跌，叠加期货盘面偏弱，销区港口贸易商报价松 | | | | 动。下游饲料需求一般，市场成交偏淡。技术上，玉米 3 月合约在 2300 整数关 | | | | 口遇阻回落，多头资金减仓离场，期价调整。受现货和近月合约调整因素影响， | | | | 玉米 5、7 月合约跳空下行。此前获利多单止盈离场后，5、7 月合约短空参与 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米近月 2603 合约继续大幅减仓，日持仓减少 11 万手，5 月合约跟随减 | | | | 仓，玉米价钱合约持仓下降 13 万张，玉米近、远月合约期价联动下行，日跌幅 | | | | 扩大。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强运行，延续周末上涨的趋势，但上涨动力 | | | | 不足。山东深加工企业今日早间剩余车辆 500 台以上，深加工企业全天卸货量尚 | | | | 可，部分库存较低企业继续上调 6-20 元/吨。随着春节临近，农户售粮意愿增加， | | | | 但目前基层粮点仍然未出现明显上量的情况，今年农户整体售粮节奏相对平均。 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 销区市场玉米价格主流小幅下跌。周末北港价格下跌，叠加期货盘面偏弱，销区 | | | | 港口贸易商报价松动。下游饲料需求一般，市场成交偏淡。技术上，玉米 3 月合 | | | | 约在 2300 整数关口遇阻回落，多头资金减仓离场，期价调整。受现货和近月合 | | | | 约调整因素影响，玉米 5、7 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering stopping imports of edible oil from China as a retaliatory measure against China's reduced purchases of U.S. soybeans, which could lead to a loss of 16 million tons of soybean orders for the U.S. [1] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The U.S. claims that China's refusal to buy American soybeans is causing difficulties for U.S. soybean farmers, prompting the consideration of halting edible oil imports from China [1] - China is the world's largest consumer of edible oil, making the U.S. strategy of stopping imports a complex issue [1] - In 2024, China's exports of edible oil to the U.S. are projected to be around 4,000 tons, valued at approximately $1 million, indicating limited impact on China's edible oil industry if the U.S. halts imports [4] Group 2: Nature of U.S. Imports from China - The U.S. primarily imports waste cooking oil from China, which is processed for use as biodiesel and other renewable energy sources, rather than traditional edible oils [5][6] - In 2024, China is expected to export over 1 million tons of waste cooking oil to the U.S., valued at over $1 billion, highlighting the significance of this trade [6] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Soybean Farmers - The U.S. soybean export structure is heavily reliant on whole soybeans, with 78% of exports being whole beans, while soybean meal and oil account for only 21% and 1%, respectively [13] - The reduction in Chinese purchases could create a significant gap in the U.S. soybean market, as China is the primary buyer of U.S. whole soybeans [13][15] - U.S. farmers are facing challenges in finding alternative markets for their soybeans, leading to price declines and a difficult situation for the agricultural sector [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a significant impact on US biodiesel production. The adjustment of the tax credit policy in 2025 has significantly reduced the import volume of Chinese UCO. From January to July this year, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Due to the US bonded area policy, some imports of Chinese UCO will continue. The reduction in US biomass diesel production will increase US petroleum diesel demand by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel, a decline of 0.77%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.70% at 440 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 623,000 barrels to 8.73 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 640,000 barrels to 2.947 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 215,000 barrels to 6.135 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global energy demand is growing, Russia has the potential to further increase oil production, but currently has no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and trade wars pose risks to energy supply [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will impose targeted sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak told the Saudi energy minister that joint actions within the framework of OPEC+ are in the long - term national interests of both countries and will strongly promote the economic development of both countries [1] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a major impact on US biodiesel production. The 2025 tax credit policy adjustment has reduced Chinese UCO imports. From January to July, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Some imports will continue due to the bonded area policy. US petroleum diesel demand will increase by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights President Trump's accusation that China is deliberately not purchasing U.S. soybeans, which he claims harms American soybean farmers and constitutes "economic hostile behavior" [1] - Trump mentioned the possibility of terminating trade relations with China in edible oils and other sectors as retaliation, emphasizing that the U.S. can produce edible oils independently [1] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its stance that there are no winners in a trade war and that issues should be resolved through equal and respectful negotiations [1] Group 2 - The article notes that U.S. farmers are struggling with unsold soybeans, and the government had proposed an aid package to alleviate their pressure, but this plan is hindered by a government shutdown [2] - Many U.S. soybean farmers prefer reaching a trade agreement with China over receiving government aid [2] - The discussion around the import of waste cooking oil in the U.S. has been ongoing, with analysts suggesting it hampers the expansion of U.S. soybean crushing and has become a primary source of biofuels [2] - An expert indicated that biofuels are not a priority for the current U.S. administration, and the overall impact of changes in waste cooking oil imports on trade relations is minimal [2]