九月的美国中西部，一望无际的金色豆田，本该是丰收的天堂。可农场主约翰逊却站在田埂上，满面愁 容，手里的电话安静得可怕。 以前这时候，从中国来的订单都快把他邮箱塞满了，经纪人的电话也老响个不停，他的工作就是开着大 收割机，把一颗颗黄澄澄的大豆装上车，接下来送去装船，运往太平洋彼岸。 那曾经有一条能带来财富的黄金航路，豆农们赚了不少钱，中国的餐桌也因此更丰富了。 可今年的情况完全不一样，那条热线仿佛没信号，那只"无形的手"到底是断了啥？ 特朗普总统一摆手，就挑起了对华贸易战，他自个儿觉得这是张"王牌"能让美国"再度变得出众"，可他 或许忘了，在这场全球的角力当中，每打出一张牌，都会有回应。 果不其然，中国迅速反击，关税清单里，美国大豆赫然在列。对于严重依赖中国市场的美国豆农来说， 无异于晴天霹雳。 你可能会问，世界这么大，不卖给中国，还不能卖给别人吗？ 事实是真不能！中国是全球最大的大豆进口国，胃口之大，没有任何一个国家能相提并论。失去了中国 这个"头号大客户"，那堆积如山的几千万吨大豆，就像一座沉重的大山，压得豆农们喘不过气来。 更让人担忧的是不管少了谁地球还是转，这边美国大豆正愁卖不出去那边南美巴西和阿根廷的 ...

据报道，掐着最后一刻，特朗普还是签了字。8月11日，白宫宣布将暂停大幅提高中国商品关税的期限 再延长90天。眼看第二天就是休战到期日，这个延期来得惊险万分。表面看是美方让步，可仔细琢磨， 里头全是精算——美国财长贝森特放风：美国跟"大部分国家"的贸易谈判要在10月前搞定。这90天，摆 明了是美方腾出手来对付其他贸易伙伴的缓冲期，然后再转头集中火力"解决"中国。 讽刺的是，美军的挑衅显得越来越虚。此前闯西沙还敢放舰载机秀肌肉，这回"希金斯"号全程保持无线 电静默，连舰载雷达都不敢全开！中国这边的应对却越发从容。黄岩岛周边，"立体监控网"已然成型 ——卫星实时跟踪、无人机抵近侦察、海空兵力联动，美军每闯一次，我们的防御体系就完善一分。 特朗普在贸易桌前想要大豆救命，美军在南海却对中国捅刀——这精分的戏码，美国自己演得矛盾又狼 狈。 经贸上，美国农民苦等中国订单，可关税壁垒不拆，四倍采购只能是痴人说梦。军事上，拉菲律 宾当炮灰，自己派艘驱逐舰还畏手畏脚，连盟友都敷衍了事：日本自卫队嘴上说"常态化部署南海"，转 头就拒了跟美军黄岩岛联合巡逻；澳大利亚更是把军舰直接调去了波斯湾。当中国与东盟贸易额突破， 碾压美日印澳" ...

Core Viewpoint - The American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to prioritize soybean issues in trade negotiations with China due to significant financial pressure faced by U.S. soybean farmers as harvest season approaches [2] Group 1: Financial Pressure on Soybean Farmers - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing "extreme" financial pressure as soybean prices continue to decline while production and equipment costs rise significantly [2] - The prolonged trade dispute with China is severely impacting U.S. soybean farmers, who are unable to sustain their operations without a resolution [2] Group 2: Export Statistics - Prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [2] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly exceeding the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant financial pressure due to ongoing trade disputes with China, which is their largest market, and the urgency for a resolution is increasing as the harvest season approaches [1] Group 1: Financial Pressure on Soybean Farmers - U.S. soybean prices continue to decline while production inputs and equipment costs are rising sharply, leading to unsustainable conditions for farmers [1] - The American Soybean Association emphasizes the need for prioritizing soybean issues in U.S.-China trade negotiations to alleviate the financial strain on farmers [1] Group 2: Export Statistics - Prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [1] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union, indicating China's critical role in the U.S. soybean market [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. soybean growers are on the brink of a "trade and financial cliff," struggling to cope with the prolonged trade war, as highlighted by the president of the American Soybean Association, Caleb Ragland [1] Group 1: Economic Pressure - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing significant economic stress due to ongoing trade disputes with their customers [1] - Soybean prices have been continuously declining, exacerbating the financial strain on growers [1] - Simultaneously, farmers are facing substantial increases in costs for agricultural inputs and equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe challenges faced by American soybean farmers due to the trade policies implemented by former President Trump, particularly the increased tariffs on Chinese imports, which have led to a significant loss of market access for U.S. soybeans. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Trump's announcement in April 2025 to raise tariffs on Chinese imports from 34% to 84% resulted in a total tax rate of 104%, which prompted China to retaliate with a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, eliminating the price advantage of American soybeans [3] - As a consequence, Chinese buyers signed contracts for 12 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, accounting for half of the demand for the next two months, leaving American farmers without any sales [3] Group 2: Agricultural Subsidies - In response to the crisis, Trump proposed a $61 billion subsidy plan, but most of the funds went to large farms and urban investors, while small farmers received minimal support, insufficient to cover rising costs [5] - Following the announcement of subsidies, soybean prices fell by 1.5%, indicating market skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Trump's pressure tactics, including demands for China to purchase four times the amount of soybeans, were ineffective as China continued to secure supplies from Brazil, even establishing currency settlements to avoid exchange rate risks [7] - The reliance on Chinese orders has historically been significant, with over 40% of U.S. soybean exports going to China, but by August 2025, orders from Chinese buyers had completely ceased [9] Group 4: Consequences for Farmers - The financial strain on American farmers is evident, with 88 farms filing for bankruptcy, a 76% increase from the previous year, as subsidies failed to cover loan interests [11] - The article highlights the disparity in subsidy distribution, with funds benefiting Wall Street investors rather than actual farmers, leading to disillusionment among the agricultural community [11] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - China's investments in Brazil have strengthened its supply chain, with a 48% increase in Brazilian soybean shipments to Chinese ports, while American shipments have virtually disappeared [13] - The cost advantage of Brazilian soybeans, which are $31 per ton cheaper than U.S. soybeans, combined with shorter transportation times and reduced currency risks, has made American soybeans less competitive [15]

Core Viewpoint - The current situation in the U.S. soybean industry is described as a "multiple disaster," with farmers facing unprecedented challenges due to trade policies, climate issues, and rising costs [1][3][5]. Trade Policy Impact - Since the trade war with China began in 2018, U.S. soybean exports to China have plummeted, with only 22.13 million tons expected in 2024 compared to China's total soybean imports of 105 million tons [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean association has highlighted that no other market can match China's demand, emphasizing the critical role of China in U.S. soybean exports [3]. Climate Challenges - Extreme weather conditions have exacerbated the difficulties faced by U.S. soybean farmers, with persistent rainfall leading to severe pest and disease issues [3][5]. - Farmers in states like Indiana and Ohio have reported significant seed losses due to flooding, forcing them to invest more in pest control [3]. Economic Pressures - The overall decline in the U.S. agricultural market, coupled with rising costs for seeds, fertilizers, and land, has created a dual pressure on farmers, making it difficult for many small farms to operate sustainably [5]. - Many farmers are reducing their investments in hopes of survival, which threatens future yield and quality, leading to a vicious cycle in the agricultural supply chain [5]. Government Response - The Trump administration's response to the crisis has been criticized as ineffective, with calls for China to resume soybean purchases lacking substantive measures to address the underlying issues [5][6]. - Reports indicate that Brazil is strengthening its agricultural cooperation with China, further jeopardizing the position of U.S. soybean farmers in the market [5]. Future Outlook - The future of U.S. agriculture, particularly for soybean farmers, is uncertain, with climate change and inadequate trade policies posing long-term challenges [6]. - There is a pressing need for practical policies and deeper international cooperation to address the agricultural crisis, which is vital for the overall economy [6].

Core Insights - The 31st National Soybean Research and Production Seminar was held from August 16 to 18, focusing on "Biological Breeding Empowering High-Quality Development of Chinese Soybeans" [1] - Over 600 representatives from research institutions, universities, management departments, technology promotion agencies, and enterprises participated to discuss and provide suggestions for the high-quality development of China's soybean industry [1] Group 1: Seminar Details - The seminar featured 11 keynote speeches and 77 sub-forum presentations, along with 25 abstract papers [1] - Experts shared the latest research progress in areas such as genetic breeding, cultivation practices, nutritional quality, photoperiod response, disease resistance, pest resistance, stress tolerance, and efficient nutrient utilization [1] Group 2: Regional Developments - Inner Mongolia's Xingan League has established the first provincial-level biological breeding technology innovation center in the country, leveraging its experience in the industrialization of biological breeding [1] - The region has developed the largest biological breeding soybean planting base and the largest standardized soybean seed production base in the country, and has been approved for a national modern agricultural soybean industrial park [1] - In 2024, Xingan League plans to promote biological breeding soybeans across 30.53 thousand acres, and the Koyou Qianqi has successfully applied to become a "provincial-level soybean seed production county" [1] Group 3: Field Observations - During the seminar, representatives visited a demonstration area in Guiliuhe Town, Koyou Qianqi, showcasing the improvement of soybean yield in a 10,000-acre biological breeding soybean area [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the unprecedented challenges faced by U.S. soybean farmers as the harvest season approaches, driven by climate disasters, soaring costs, and low international demand due to U.S. government tariff policies [1] - The absence of the Chinese market has intensified the pressure on U.S. soybean farmers, as China is the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans [1] Industry Overview - Soybeans are one of the most important crops in the U.S., playing a central role in agricultural exports [1] - In 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S. [1] - In contrast, Mexico, the second-largest market for U.S. soybeans, purchased less than 6 million tons, highlighting the significant gap compared to the Chinese market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on soybean imports from China, highlighting a significant shift in China's sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil due to price competitiveness and trade policies [1][3][29]. Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - Trump has urged China to increase soybean orders from the U.S. by four times, but recent reports indicate that China has sourced all its September and October soybean needs from Brazil and other South American countries, leaving U.S. suppliers empty-handed [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean import tariff to China has reached 23%, making U.S. soybeans significantly more expensive compared to Brazilian soybeans, which are approximately 200 yuan per ton cheaper [5][12]. - China's soybean imports from the U.S. have drastically decreased from 30 million tons in 2016 to an estimated 22.13 million tons in 2024, while imports from Brazil surged from 11.65 million tons to 74.65 million tons in the same period [7][25]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Brazilian Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are favored due to lower production costs and stable supply, enhanced by a currency swap agreement with China that allows transactions without using U.S. dollars [10][12]. - Brazil's soybean production exceeds 160 million tons annually, ensuring a reliable supply to meet China's demands, while U.S. soybean quality has declined, failing to meet the increasing demand for high-protein soybeans in China [10][12]. - The efficiency of Brazilian ports has improved significantly, with a 48% increase in the number of vessels unloading Brazilian soybeans at Ningbo-Zhoushan port compared to the previous year [12]. Group 3: Economic Impact on U.S. Farmers - The U.S. soybean export value to China is projected to drop by at least several billion dollars due to the current trade dynamics, with soybean prices falling from $13-$15 per bushel in 2023 to around $9 [14][20]. - The financial strain on U.S. farmers is evident, with many facing bankruptcy risks and significant losses in income, affecting local economies reliant on agricultural revenue [16][18]. - The increase in tariffs has led to a rise in costs for agricultural machinery and fertilizers, further exacerbating the financial challenges faced by U.S. farmers [20][22]. Group 4: China's Strategic Shift in Soybean Sourcing - China is diversifying its soybean import sources to enhance food security, with projections indicating that by 2024, 71% of its soybean imports will come from Brazil, while only 21% will be from the U.S. [25][27]. - The Chinese government is also investing in domestic soybean production, aiming to increase output from 20.65 million tons in 2024 to 23 million tons by 2025 through various initiatives [25][27]. - The development of non-GMO soybean futures by the Dalian Commodity Exchange positions China as a global pricing center for non-GMO soybeans, reflecting a strategic move to gain control over its agricultural supply chain [27][29].