【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：底部震荡 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 豆粕：周二公布的月度调查显示，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆作物产量料为 1.783 亿吨，持平于上次预估，预估区间为 1.741-1.826 亿吨。USDA 出口销售报告： 截至 12 月 11 日当周，美国大豆出口销售合计净增 242.47 万吨，符合预期。当 周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增 239.62 万吨，较之前一周增加 54%， 较前四周均值增加 69%。市场预估为净增 180-290 万吨。其中，对中国大陆出口 销售净增 138.3 万吨。当周，美国下一年度大豆出口销售净增 2.85 万吨。市场 预估为净增 0 吨。当周，美国大豆出口装船 72.13 万吨。较之前一周减少 33%， 较前四周均值减少 31%。其中，对中国大陆出口装船 20.2 万吨。当周，美国当 前市场年度大豆新销售 241.89 万吨，下一市场年度大豆新销售 2.85 万吨。 南美播种顺利，仍然保持丰产预期。美豆虽然恢复对华销售，但是销售进度 明显大幅低于去年同期，这使得美豆延续弱势。与此同时市场流言元旦后的进口 大豆抛储将延续，且 2 ...

科隆公司选择利润再投资，得益于今年我国出台的税收新政。6月底，财政部、国家税务总局、商务部联合印发《关于境外投资 者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免政策的公告》，以政策"红利"为外资企业减负松绑。政策明确，对境外投资者以境内分配利润 在2025至2028年期间新增的有效投资，按照投资额的10%抵免境外投资者应纳税额，不足抵免的部分准予向后结转。 由于亚洲市场需求持续攀升，科隆测量技术（上海）有限公司决定在沪启动新建工厂项目，新工厂占地约64亩，建成后可开发 和制造电磁流量计及其相关零部件。这家来自德国的外资企业给自己算了一笔账，得益于国家今年起实施的境外投资者利润再 投资税收抵免新政，他们可享受税收减免超300万元。 今年1至10月，上海新设外商投资企业5169家，比去年同期增长3.1%。值得注意的是，近年来，鼓励境外投资者以利润扩大在华 投资，已成为吸引外资的新趋势。上海正成为境外投资者利润再投资首选地之一。 利润再投资成为外资新趋势 利润再投资，即境外投资者将在中国境内居民企业分配的利润不汇出境外，转而留在中国境内再行投资。上海市外商投资协会 会长黄峰解释，利润再投资包括对已投资企业进行增资、新设企业或收购其他 ...

Core Insights - California has introduced a $342 million tax credit policy to attract major film productions, supporting 52 projects including "Jumanji" and "Heat 2" [1][2] - The state faces significant competition from other U.S. states and countries offering generous subsidies, leading to a 43% decrease in high-budget projects compared to the previous year [1][2] - California's film industry is experiencing a downturn, with a 29% reduction in jobs since 2022, prompting the government to enhance subsidy amounts and expand eligibility [2] Summary by Sections - **Tax Credit Policy**: California's new tax credit plan allocates $337 million annually for feature films and $412 million for television shows over the next five years, increasing the subsidy cap from $25 million to $48 million per project [2] - **Project Support**: Notable projects benefiting from the new policy include "Jumanji" sequel receiving a record $43.9 million and "Heat 2" getting $37.2 million, with additional funding for other films like "Everything Everywhere All at Once" [2] - **Industry Response**: Filmmakers have welcomed the new incentives, emphasizing the importance of local talent and skilled professionals in California for large-scale productions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a significant impact on US biodiesel production. The adjustment of the tax credit policy in 2025 has significantly reduced the import volume of Chinese UCO. From January to July this year, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Due to the US bonded area policy, some imports of Chinese UCO will continue. The reduction in US biomass diesel production will increase US petroleum diesel demand by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel, a decline of 0.77%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.70% at 440 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 623,000 barrels to 8.73 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 640,000 barrels to 2.947 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 215,000 barrels to 6.135 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global energy demand is growing, Russia has the potential to further increase oil production, but currently has no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and trade wars pose risks to energy supply [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will impose targeted sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak told the Saudi energy minister that joint actions within the framework of OPEC+ are in the long - term national interests of both countries and will strongly promote the economic development of both countries [1] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a major impact on US biodiesel production. The 2025 tax credit policy adjustment has reduced Chinese UCO imports. From January to July, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Some imports will continue due to the bonded area policy. US petroleum diesel demand will increase by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Core Viewpoint - LG Energy Solution's Q3 preliminary performance indicates a revenue of 5.7 trillion KRW, a 17% year-on-year decline, but an operating profit of 601 billion KRW (approximately 420 million USD), reflecting a 34% increase compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by the U.S. tax credit policy [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - LG Energy Solution's Q3 revenue is reported at 5.7 trillion KRW, down 17% year-on-year [3]. - The operating profit is expected to reach 601 billion KRW, a significant increase of 34% from 448 billion KRW in the same quarter last year [3][4]. - Excluding the impact of U.S. tax credits, the operating profit would only be 235.8 billion KRW [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The cancellation of the tax credit policy is anticipated to slow down electric vehicle demand in the U.S., directly affecting battery demand [6]. - LG Energy Solution's North American production capacity is under threat due to a recent inspection by U.S. immigration authorities, which detained over 300 Korean employees [6]. - If visa issues are not resolved, other factories may face similar challenges, potentially impacting signed orders [7]. Group 3: Production and Orders - LG Energy Solution has established eight bases in North America with a planned total capacity exceeding 350 GWh [7]. - Since the second half of 2024, LG Energy Solution has secured nearly 400 GWh of cooperation in the energy storage market, with over 380 GWh in public intention cooperation orders for power batteries [7]. - The company is increasing its focus on the energy storage market to balance its dynamic storage business amid a slowdown in the new energy vehicle market [9]. Group 4: Future Orders - Key future orders include a 39 GWh contract with Renault for LFP batteries, a 50.5 GWh contract with Mercedes-Benz, and a 109 GWh contract with Ford [8]. - LG Energy Solution is also set to supply 67 GWh of batteries to Rivian and has ongoing collaborations with various traditional automakers and energy companies [8].

Group 1 - Tesla's Berlin factory manager announced that the new simplified Model Y will be "about 10% cheaper" [1] - The introduction of the more affordable Model Y is a proactive measure by Tesla to counter the potential impact of the termination of the $7,500 federal tax credit in the U.S. [2] - The new model will feature reduced functionalities and use fewer high-end materials, reflecting a strategy to address uncertain future demand [2] Group 2 - Despite achieving record delivery numbers in Q3, Tesla's performance was partly driven by a "buying rush" before the expiration of the tax credit, indicating potential pressure on sales growth in the coming months [2] - The launch of the cheaper model is part of Tesla's strategy to smooth the transition following the expiration of the tax credit [2]

Core Points - The announcement outlines a tax credit policy for foreign investors reinvesting profits, allowing them to defer corporate income tax while enjoying a temporary tax incentive [1][23][26] - The policy is effective from January 1, 2025, and will remain in place until December 31, 2028, with provisions for any remaining credits to be utilized thereafter [20][26] Group 1: Tax Credit Policy Overview - The tax credit policy provides a temporary tax incentive for foreign investors reinvesting profits, allowing them to defer corporate income tax [1][23] - Foreign investors can choose to calculate the tax credit based on either 10% of the reinvestment amount or a lower dividend withholding tax rate as per applicable tax treaties [3][24] - The policy does not affect the existing deferred tax policies, which remain applicable [1][2] Group 2: Reinvestment Timeframe - The reinvestment period for foreign investors begins from the month specified in the "Profit Reinvestment Situation Table" issued by the business authority [2][23] - The holding period for the reinvestment must be at least five years (60 months) to qualify for the tax credit [2][6] Group 3: Calculation of Tax Credit Amount - The tax credit amount can be calculated based on the reinvestment amount, with options to select a 10% rate or a lower rate from tax treaties [3][24] - If a foreign investor has multiple reinvestments, the tax credit must be aggregated by the profit distribution enterprise [3][24] Group 4: Adjustments and Compliance - If a foreign investor does not meet the conditions for the tax credit, adjustments to the tax credit amount will be required [6][26] - Foreign investors must submit specific documentation to the tax authorities when claiming the tax credit or making tax payments [25][26] Group 5: Handling of Tax Credits Post-2028 - Any remaining tax credit balances after December 31, 2028, can still be utilized until fully exhausted [20][26] - Foreign investors can apply for retroactive tax credits for eligible investments made between January 1, 2025, and the announcement date [21][26]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) and reinvestment in response to the declining global FDI and increasing uncertainties in the international economic environment [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Encouragement of Reinvestment - The new measures aim to promote reinvestment by foreign enterprises in China, allowing them to use profits earned in China for additional investments or new projects [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of reinvestment as a key aspect of stabilizing foreign investment [1]. Tax Incentives - A new tax credit policy has been introduced, allowing foreign investors to offset 10% of their investment amount against their taxable income for reinvestments made between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028 [2][3]. - The existing "deferred tax" policy has been in place since 2018, which allows foreign investors to postpone tax payments on reinvested profits, with reinvestment amounts reaching 162.28 billion yuan in 2024, a 15% increase year-on-year [2][4]. Policy Framework - The new tax credit mechanism builds on the deferred tax policy, providing clearer tax asset allocations and allowing for carryover of unused credits to future years [4]. - The policy encourages long-term investment commitments by imposing additional tax costs for short-term withdrawals, with a five-year holding requirement for the tax credit to remain valid [4]. Comprehensive Support Measures - The notification includes various support policies such as optimizing land use, simplifying administrative processes, facilitating foreign exchange fund usage, and increasing financial support for foreign investment [6]. - Specific measures include flexible land leasing options and streamlined processes for foreign enterprises establishing new entities in China [6]. Positive Impact on Employment and Economy - The cumulative number of foreign-invested enterprises in China is expected to exceed 1.239 million by the end of 2024, with reinvestment contributing to new production capacities, job creation, and tax revenue [7]. - The series of policies is seen as a comprehensive approach to encourage both new and reinvested foreign investments, enhancing the overall business environment in China [7][8].

Group 1 - China's Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to encourage foreign investors to increase their investments in China through a tax credit policy for profit reinvestment, highlighting the importance of tax incentives in stabilizing investment expectations and reducing costs [2] - The National Energy Administration reported that the national maximum electricity load reached a record high of 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 0.055 billion kilowatts compared to the previous year, indicating a critical period for energy supply during the summer peak [3] - Seven major potassium fertilizer distribution companies in China jointly announced an initiative to increase potassium fertilizer supply and reduce prices, aiming to stabilize market expectations and return prices to reasonable levels [4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new product announcement list that includes Tesla's six-seat Model Y L [5] - Postal Savings Bank plans to invest 10 billion yuan to establish China Post Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd [5] - Jinggong Steel Structure signed a contract for a 550 million yuan project in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which will be used for the FIFA World Cup events [5] Group 3 - Shanghai Material Trade Company experienced a four-day stock price increase, stating that there have been no significant changes in its fundamentals [6] - Guangsheng Tang's GST-HG131 has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy designations by the drug review center, although this does not guarantee market approval [6] - Medike's plan to acquire 100% of Haisholi and INNOWAVE VIETNAM for 2 billion Korean won will allow the company to directly enter the Samsung supply chain [6] Group 4 - Anker Innovations is researching matters related to issuing shares overseas [7] - Shantui Co., Ltd. plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7] - ASML, a Dutch lithography machine giant, stated that U.S. tariff policies have created uncertainty regarding the company's growth prospects [8]

Group 1 - The relationship between President Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk has deteriorated, with Trump warning Musk of severe consequences if he supports the Democratic Party in future elections [1][5][6] - The White House has reportedly asked Republican supporters to choose sides between Trump and Musk, indicating a push to isolate Musk from Republican allies [2][3] - Trump has threatened to cancel government contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies, such as SpaceX and Tesla, which could save the government significant funds [7] Group 2 - Musk has publicly criticized the Republican Party's tax and spending proposals, which has raised concerns among Republicans about the potential impact on their legislative agenda [7][10] - Despite the ongoing conflict, some Republicans are advocating for reconciliation between Trump and Musk, citing Musk's previous contributions to the Republican Party and his influence on young voters [11][12] - Political analysts suggest that the Republican Party needs to navigate the internal divisions carefully to maintain their majority in Congress, especially in competitive districts [12]