第一篇为伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）发布的研报《亚洲半导体与全球存储器：2026 年仍将是 AI 的天下》。 报告指出，当前已具备充分的可见性，2026 年人工智能加速器（XPU）的需求将呈现爆发式增长，诸 多关键供应链环节（如晶圆级系统集成技术 CoWoS、存储器、逻辑晶圆等）均面临供应紧张的挑战， 难以匹配市场需求。 另一篇则是摩根士丹利（大摩）发布的存储芯片专题研报《2026 年 —— 从优秀到卓越》。大摩在报告 中强调："我们仍处于 AI 发展的起点，而非终点。" 大摩认为，市场通常会提前 6-9 个月反映预期，而新一年度的市场主线仍将围绕 AI 展开。尽管 AI 领域 近期成果显著，但 ChatGPT 诞生至今仅三年时间，具备 1GW 算力规模的运营数据中心尚未落地；行业 专家指出，预训练模型的发展 "尚无可见天花板"，而随着技术的广泛普及，推理端的应用需求正趋向 无限。 目前，我们对 AI 的发展方向已有更清晰的认知，但对于如何匹配海量存储器的供应需求，仍存在诸多 不确定性。从模型向系统架构演进的过程中，AI 模型可通过提升算力规模与优化运行效率实现巨大的 性能提升空间。但对于存储器行业而言，制 ...

随着人工智能技术的进步持续推动股价走高，谷歌母公司Alphabet正在向全球市值第一的宝座发起冲 击，部分市场参与者已开始押注其将在未来一年内超越排在英伟达和苹果。 根据预测市场Polymarket最新的数据，Alphabet在2026年12月前成为全球最大公司的概率已达到33%， 仅次于英伟达的37%。此前，DataTrek Research联合创始人Jessica Rabe在报告中指出，两家公司成为全 球最大公司的可能性一度持平于36%。 Jessica Rabe指出，Alphabet超越两大竞争对手登顶的可能性正在上升。虽然目前33%的概率略低于英伟 达的37%，但这表明市场认为这种排名的更替并非不可想象。 尽管Alphabet目前市值仍落后于英伟达，但在明年成为市场第一大公司的情景被分析师认为具有合理 性。 早在去年9月，MoffettNathanson分析师Michael Nathanson就曾预测过这种结果。 他认为，得益于多元化的业务线和加速增长的云业务，Alphabet不仅将在生成式AI时代成为赢家，更 理应被视为"世界上最有价值公司"头衔的有力竞争者。 Alphabet股价在2025年已大幅 ...

Hi, Kelly. Well, analysts do expect the chipmaker to beat and raise. Honestly, everyone is incredibly bullish on this company, and that's because of surging demand specifically for custom chips it makes for Google.That momentum helps explains why Broadcom, you said shares are down today, but if you look at it over just a two-month period, shares have jumped 25% while Nvidia essentially flatline. You can see down negative 2%. But these particular chips, they're called TPUs or tensor processing units and they ...

Core Viewpoint - Google's stock has performed strongly this year, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 51%, significantly outperforming major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The strong stock performance is largely attributed to impressive earnings growth, with a 33% increase in the most recent quarter, contributing 65% to the year-to-date stock price increase [2]. - Despite high earnings, the company's free cash flow (FCF) has stagnated due to substantial capital expenditures (CAPEX) related to artificial intelligence [6][9]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Google has undertaken significant capital expenditures, totaling $66.9 billion over the past 12 months, primarily for AI-related investments [9]. - The increasing capital expenditures are expected to lead to higher depreciation costs, which will eventually impact profitability [10][11]. Growth Potential and Risks - The key question is whether the revenue growth from these capital expenditures will justify the costs. While there are signs of revenue growth in cloud services, the negative impact on cash flow raises concerns [11][12]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Google's future performance, citing strong earnings that have consistently exceeded expectations [12][13]. Competitive Advantages - Google possesses significant advantages, including a large pool of top engineering talent and a robust physical infrastructure for AI development [14][16]. - The company has developed its own AI acceleration chips, which may provide a cost advantage over competitors reliant on NVIDIA [17]. Future Growth Projections - Analysts predict that Google's cloud business will continue to grow at high margins, potentially reaching annual revenues comparable to Amazon Web Services (AWS) [18]. - Overall, a projected annual growth rate of 15% or higher for various services is anticipated, with AI upgrades contributing an additional 5% growth [18][23]. Valuation Insights - Current valuation metrics indicate that Google's stock is relatively high, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 28.5x, but this may be justified if growth continues as expected [19][23]. - If growth momentum is sustained, the current valuation could be considered undervalued [24]. Conclusion - While there are risks associated with the capital expenditure in AI, there are also significant opportunities for growth if these investments yield positive results [25][26].

Global Insights - Intel reported revenue of $13.7 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $13.1 billion. The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $12.8 billion and $13.8 billion, aligning with market expectations, driven by significant investments from the Trump administration, Nvidia, and SoftBank of Japan [4]. - Anthropic has secured a major AI chip deal with Google Cloud, gaining access to 1 million Google Cloud chips for training and running its AI models. Google has invested over $3 billion in Anthropic, which will utilize custom chips (TPUs) to provide over 1 GW of AI computing power next year. Amazon is also a key cloud service provider and investor, having invested $8 billion and is building a 2.2 GW data center cluster in Indiana to support AI model training [4]. - Morgan Stanley has raised earnings forecasts for SK Hynix and Samsung for 2025-2027, citing expectations of a significant increase in commodity memory prices (including DRAM and HBM). Target prices were adjusted: SK Hynix from 480,000 KRW to 570,000 KRW, and Samsung common stock from 111,000 KRW to 120,000 KRW [7]. China Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that China has begun mass production of HBM2, while South Korea is advancing HBM3E/HBM4, indicating a potential widening gap in technology [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintained a "Buy" rating for Ruijie Networks, lowering the 12-month target price from 134 CNY to 129 CNY. The company is expected to generate 4 billion CNY in revenue in Q3 2025, a 21% year-over-year increase, despite a seasonal decline. The gross margin of 35.6% exceeded expectations, driven by an optimized product mix in SMB switches [10]. - Goldman Sachs' macroeconomic research report highlights three key themes: potential AI bubble concerns, re-emerging credit worries, and ongoing US-China tensions [12].