Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that Henglin Co., Ltd. has shown steady performance in Q3, with expectations for improved cross-border performance during the peak season [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The cross-border e-commerce business has experienced stable growth, driven by scale effects and strong cost control capabilities, leading to a gradual recovery in profit margins [1] - Key brands on Amazon in the U.S., including Sweetcrispy, Dumos, and Smug, have performed well from July to September, with Sweetcrispy's sales increasing by 34.5%, 32.3%, and 38.8% year-on-year respectively [1] - Popular products such as storage cabinets and office chairs have shown strong sales performance [1] Group 2: Profitability Outlook - As the profitability of the cross-border e-commerce business gradually improves and the contract manufacturing business shows operational enhancements, there remains potential for profit recovery [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts considering changes in cross-border e-commerce operations and the impact of tariffs on the contract manufacturing business, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 performance with revenue of 3.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 97 million, up 112% year-on-year, driven by stable growth in cross-border e-commerce [1][3] - The cross-border e-commerce business showed robust growth, with significant sales increases for key brands on Amazon in the U.S. [2] - The gross profit margin improved to 17.56%, up 3.24 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the overall profit enhancement [3] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue reached 3.14 billion, a 4.4% increase year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 97 million, a 112% increase year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 93 million, up 110% year-on-year [1] Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - The cross-border e-commerce business maintained steady growth despite tariff fluctuations - Key brands such as Sweetcrispy, Dumos, and Smug showed strong sales performance from July to September, with Sweetcrispy sales increasing by 34.5%, 32.3%, and 38.8% year-on-year [2] - Dumos sales increased by 89.0%, 54.8%, and 147.9% year-on-year, while Smug saw increases of 24.2%, 9.8%, and 130.1% year-on-year [2] Profitability and Margin Improvement - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 17.56%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.24 percentage points - The operating expense ratio was 13.29%, up 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio at 7.31%, up 2.28 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin was 3.1%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, indicating potential for further profit recovery [3] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.035 billion, 13.074 billion, and 14.180 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 9%, 8.64%, and 8.45% respectively - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 384 million, 500 million, and 605 million, with year-on-year growth of 45.98%, 30.26%, and 20.90% respectively [4][6]

Group 1 - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month growth of 0.93% [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted furniture sales, with retail sales of furniture products increasing by 25.6%, indicating a strong consumer demand in the furniture market [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has made it easier for consumers to replace old furniture, enhancing their purchasing desire and leading to a surge in sales across various furniture categories [3] Group 2 - As of May 31, the "old-for-new" policy has driven a total sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [4] - The home improvement and kitchen renovation segment has seen 57.626 million orders, reflecting consumers' pursuit of improved home quality and the policy's deep-rooted impact [4] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue, with additional funding anticipated in the third quarter, providing confidence for future growth in the home consumption market [4] Group 3 - The "old-for-new" policy has prompted home furnishing companies to enhance product quality and service levels, leading to increased R&D investments and the introduction of more eco-friendly, smart, and personalized furniture products [5] - Companies are focusing on improving consumer experience by offering services such as old furniture collection and free installation, making the shopping experience more convenient [5] - The home consumption market is expected to see broader development opportunities as the "old-for-new" policy continues to evolve and consumer quality demands rise [5]

Core Insights - The home storage industry originated in the United States during the 1980s, driven by economic growth and increased consumer demand, leading to a rise in home organization services [1][11] - China's home storage products market is expected to grow significantly, with a market size projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2025, up from 101.279 billion yuan in 2020 [1][11] - The industry is supported by rising disposable income and consumer spending, with per capita disposable income in China increasing from 21,966 yuan in 2015 to 41,314 yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.27% [9][11] Industry Overview - Home storage products are primarily plastic items designed to organize and store various household items, including storage boxes, bags, cabinets, and shelves [3] - The industry is characterized by a supply chain that includes upstream plastic materials, midstream manufacturing, and downstream sales channels such as e-commerce and retail [5] Market Dynamics - The demand for home storage products is rapidly increasing due to urbanization and the fast-paced lifestyle of residents in major cities, leading to a growing consumption of these products [1][11] - The plastic storage box segment is particularly popular, with a market size of approximately 1.093 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rising consumer demand [13] Competitive Landscape - The industry features a competitive landscape with leading companies such as Chahua Co., Ltd., Jialian Technology, and Taili Technology, which dominate the market [15][17][19] - The market is fragmented, with many small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to intense price competition and a prevalence of low-end products [21] Challenges - The industry faces challenges from numerous small enterprises producing low-quality products, which complicates market competition [21] - Rising labor costs and a shortage of skilled labor are pressing issues that necessitate automation and technological upgrades within the industry [22][23] Future Trends - Consumer preferences are shifting towards high-quality, personalized, and eco-friendly products, prompting companies to innovate in design and production [24][25] - The integration of online and offline sales channels is accelerating, with a focus on experiential marketing and digital engagement to enhance consumer experience [26]