浙商证券研报指出，恒林股份Q3稳健，期待旺季跨境表现向上。在跨境业务稳健增长下拉动增长，利 润率逐步修复。在关税波动下，公司跨境电商业务基于规模效应、强成本管控能力，增长较为稳健。根 据Sorftime，公司在美国亚马逊的主要品牌Sweetcrispy、Dumos、Smug7-9月表现较优，具体看 Sweetcrispy7-9月销售额分别同比+34.5%/32.3%/38.8%，收纳柜、办公椅等爆品销售表现良好。预计随 着跨境电商业务盈利能力逐步释放，代工业务经营改善，盈利仍有修复空间。考虑跨境电商业务经营变 化，代工业务关税影响，调整对公司盈利预测，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Q3 稳健，期待旺季跨境表现向上 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 家居用品 ——恒林股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 25Q3 业绩： ❑ 跨境电商增长稳健，代工业务底部稳健 跨境：在关税波动下，公司跨境电商业务基于规模效应、强成本管控能力，增长 较为稳健。根据 Sorftime，公司在美国亚马逊的主要品牌 Sweetcrispy、Dumos、 Smug7-9 月表现较优，具体看 Sweetcrispy 7-9 月销售额分别同比 +34.5%/32.3%/38.8%，收纳柜、办公椅等爆品销售表现良好。Dumos 7-9 月销售 额分别同比+89.0%/54.8%/147.9%，主要产品包括床垫、推车、办公桌等公司具 有相关制造能力的产品。 Smug 7-9 月销售额分别同比+24.2%/9.8%/130.1%，主 要产品包括床垫、办公椅、升降桌等产品。 25Q3 公司实现营收 31.4 亿，同比+4.4%，归母净利润 0.97 亿，同比+112%，扣 非归母净利润 0.93 亿，同比+110%，Q3 收入在跨境业务稳健增长下拉动增长， 利润率逐步修复。 代工：25Q3 在关税及客户库存高位去库影响下收入受 ...

Group 1 - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month growth of 0.93% [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted furniture sales, with retail sales of furniture products increasing by 25.6%, indicating a strong consumer demand in the furniture market [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has made it easier for consumers to replace old furniture, enhancing their purchasing desire and leading to a surge in sales across various furniture categories [3] Group 2 - As of May 31, the "old-for-new" policy has driven a total sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [4] - The home improvement and kitchen renovation segment has seen 57.626 million orders, reflecting consumers' pursuit of improved home quality and the policy's deep-rooted impact [4] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue, with additional funding anticipated in the third quarter, providing confidence for future growth in the home consumption market [4] Group 3 - The "old-for-new" policy has prompted home furnishing companies to enhance product quality and service levels, leading to increased R&D investments and the introduction of more eco-friendly, smart, and personalized furniture products [5] - Companies are focusing on improving consumer experience by offering services such as old furniture collection and free installation, making the shopping experience more convenient [5] - The home consumption market is expected to see broader development opportunities as the "old-for-new" policy continues to evolve and consumer quality demands rise [5]

Core Insights - The home storage industry originated in the United States during the 1980s, driven by economic growth and increased consumer demand, leading to a rise in home organization services [1][11] - China's home storage products market is expected to grow significantly, with a market size projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2025, up from 101.279 billion yuan in 2020 [1][11] - The industry is supported by rising disposable income and consumer spending, with per capita disposable income in China increasing from 21,966 yuan in 2015 to 41,314 yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.27% [9][11] Industry Overview - Home storage products are primarily plastic items designed to organize and store various household items, including storage boxes, bags, cabinets, and shelves [3] - The industry is characterized by a supply chain that includes upstream plastic materials, midstream manufacturing, and downstream sales channels such as e-commerce and retail [5] Market Dynamics - The demand for home storage products is rapidly increasing due to urbanization and the fast-paced lifestyle of residents in major cities, leading to a growing consumption of these products [1][11] - The plastic storage box segment is particularly popular, with a market size of approximately 1.093 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rising consumer demand [13] Competitive Landscape - The industry features a competitive landscape with leading companies such as Chahua Co., Ltd., Jialian Technology, and Taili Technology, which dominate the market [15][17][19] - The market is fragmented, with many small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to intense price competition and a prevalence of low-end products [21] Challenges - The industry faces challenges from numerous small enterprises producing low-quality products, which complicates market competition [21] - Rising labor costs and a shortage of skilled labor are pressing issues that necessitate automation and technological upgrades within the industry [22][23] Future Trends - Consumer preferences are shifting towards high-quality, personalized, and eco-friendly products, prompting companies to innovate in design and production [24][25] - The integration of online and offline sales channels is accelerating, with a focus on experiential marketing and digital engagement to enhance consumer experience [26]