上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 27 日 聚合顺 (605166) ——外部扰动叠加库存影响致短期业绩承压，进军特种尼 龙切片再绘成长曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,168 | 3,030 | 6,366 | 8,425 | 8,956 | | 同比增长率（%） | 19.1 | -13.9 | -11.2 | 32.4 | 6.3 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 300 | 111 | 285 | 507 | 613 | | 同比增长率（%） | 52.7 | -27.6 | -5.0 | 77.9 | 20.8 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.95 | 0.35 | 0.91 | 1.61 | 1.95 | | 毛利率（%） | 8.1 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 10.9 | | ROE（%） | 15.6 | 5.7 | 13.1 | 18.9 ...

Industry Overview - Modified nylon is an engineering plastic obtained by modifying nylon with various fillers or enhancers, exhibiting excellent mechanical properties, heat resistance, and processing capabilities, widely used in automotive, electronics, and machinery manufacturing industries [1][17] - The modified nylon market in China has shown rapid growth, with the market size increasing from 4.176 billion yuan in 2017 to 10.21 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.62% [1][17] - The future focus of modified nylon will be on high performance and multifunctionality, including the development of new fillers and nanocomposites to enhance mechanical properties and special functions [1][17] Market Dynamics - The global modified nylon market is projected to grow from $8.999 billion in 2017 to $15.673 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.25% [16] - The demand for modified nylon is driven by the increasing application in high-end markets such as electric vehicles, smart devices, and eco-friendly materials [16] Industry Development History - The modified nylon industry in China began in the 1970s, initially relying on imported technology and materials, with significant growth occurring in the 1990s due to rising demand from the automotive and electronics sectors [8][12] - By 2024, China's nylon production is expected to reach 4.59 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.25%, providing a solid raw material foundation for the modified nylon industry [12][14] Application Areas - Automotive components represent a significant application area for modified nylon, with the market demand closely linked to the development of China's automotive industry, which produced over 30 million vehicles in 2023 [14] - The trend towards lightweight materials in the automotive sector is creating opportunities for modified nylon in critical components such as engine parts and intake manifolds [14] Key Companies - Major companies in the modified nylon industry include Kingfa Technology, Hengshen New Materials, Shenda Co., Nanjing Julong, and others, with a market structure characterized by large enterprises dominating the high-end market and small to medium enterprises focusing on niche segments [20][22] - Kingfa Technology is noted for its focus on high-performance new materials and is expected to achieve a revenue of 32.075 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.95% year-on-year growth [23] - Hengshen New Materials specializes in nylon 6 products and is projected to have a revenue of 1.746 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 19.51% [25] Future Trends - The demand for high-performance enhanced materials is expected to grow, with key technological breakthroughs in whisker-reinforced and carbon fiber-reinforced nylon [27] - Nylon alloying is becoming a mainstream trend, optimizing mechanical properties and heat resistance through blending with other polymers [28] - The rise of nanotechnology in nylon applications is anticipated to enhance mechanical strength and thermal stability, expanding its use in precision fields [30] - The demand for environmentally friendly flame-retardant nylon is increasing, with a focus on halogen-free systems due to stricter environmental regulations [31] - Functional nylon applications are expanding, with anti-static, conductive, and magnetic properties being increasingly utilized in electronics and machinery [32] - The industry is shifting towards refined and integrated technologies, emphasizing material design and customized applications to meet downstream demands [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the environmental impact assessment and the development of a pilot project for the production of adiponitrile by Ningxia Botai New Materials Technology Co., Ltd, highlighting the company's plans for industrialization and the challenges faced in the production process [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - Ningxia Botai New Materials Technology Co., Ltd is initiating a pilot project for a 100 tons/year adiponitrile production facility, which will utilize methanol and butadiene as raw materials through a specific chemical process [2][3]. - The pilot project is designed to last for one year, with an expected output of 100 tons of adiponitrile, 15 tons of 2-methylpentanedinitrile, and 50 tons of ammonium sulfate, which will be used for performance testing and further R&D [2][3]. Group 2: Future Plans - The company plans to implement a 10,000 tons/year industrial demonstration project for adiponitrile in 2023, along with securing land for a 200,000 tons/year project [2]. - The production process for the larger project involves a three-step method: preparation of formamide, decomposition to produce hydrogen cyanide, and synthesis of adiponitrile, although this project is currently on hold for optimization [2][3]. Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The company intends to invest 36.7 million yuan to lease facilities at the Ningdong Energy Chemical Base for the pilot project, ensuring that existing infrastructure will support storage, transportation, and wastewater treatment [3].