2025年12月23日电池板块大涨，核心是碳酸锂期货强势上涨+储能需求超预期+行业盈利改善+机构资金 回流四大利好共振，叠加政策与技术催化，推动板块估值修复与情绪升温。一、供应端：扰动频发，收 缩预期持续升温 1、国内矿端复产与审批节奏不及预期 宁德时代枧下窝锂矿12月中旬进入首次环评公示，市场判断后续审批与复产仍需较长时间，短期新增供 应无望，强化供应偏紧预期。宜春拟注销27宗采矿权（含1宗过期含锂瓷石矿），虽实质影响有限，但 市场解读为区域资源管控收紧，加剧对供应稳定性的担忧。部分高成本锂矿产能在前期价格低谷期退 出，行业供给结构优化，优质产能话语权提升，支撑价格弹性。 2、海外矿端挺价+供给潜在扰动 澳洲锂矿报价维持1200美元/吨以上高位，年度长协价格重心上移，为国内锂价提供成本支撑。尼日利 亚等国拟暂停采矿活动（待审批），引发海外锂资源供应波动担忧，进一步推升市场对全球锂资源供给 紧张的预期。 3、低库存与季节性减产助推惜售 1、机构集体上调锂价预期 机构层面，摩根大通大幅上调锂价预期，将2026年碳酸锂目标价从7万元/吨上修至9万元/吨，并明确判 断2025-2026年全球锂市场将处于供应缺口状态 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of lithium mining stocks, driven by a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, which reached a new high of 102,220 yuan this year [1] - The New Energy ETF fund (516850) rose by 1.1%, with key holdings such as Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit, Tianhua New Energy increasing by over 9%, and Zhongmin Resources and Yongxing Materials rising by over 4% [1] - Guojin Securities emphasizes that the main opportunity in the lithium carbonate industry chain lies in the demand side rather than the supply side, predicting a substantial growth in demand from the energy storage sector, potentially matching that of the power battery sector next year [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the demand side's explosive growth is non-linear, with the potential growth rate sufficient to support high overall demand for lithium carbonate [1] - Related products such as the New Energy ETF fund (516850) and its linked funds (017571/017572) focus on the new energy sector, particularly in batteries, photovoltaics, and electricity, with a high tracking index weight of 45.18% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the lithium carbonate futures have surged, indicating a strong demand outlook for the lithium industry, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is expected to match the demand from power batteries in the coming year [1][2] - On November 19, 2025, the New Energy ETF Fund (516850) rose by 0.83%, with significant gains in its holdings, including Rongbai Technology up over 7%, Shangtai Technology up over 6%, and Chuaneng Power up over 5% [1] - The main opportunity in the lithium carbonate industry chain is currently on the demand side rather than the supply side, as previous price declines have led to cautious capital expenditure and limited supply growth [1] Group 2 - The New Energy ETF Fund (516850) and its linked funds (017571/017572) focus on the new energy sector, particularly in batteries, photovoltaics, and electricity, with a high weight of 45.18% in its tracking index, allowing investors to grasp opportunities in the new energy sector effectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy sector is showing strong performance, with significant increases in related ETFs and stocks following the release of supportive government policies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The New Energy ETF (516850) rose by 5.37%, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1] - Stocks such as Sheneng Electric reached a 20% daily limit increase, while Tianhua New Energy and Xinzhou Bang saw increases exceeding 18% [1] Group 2: Government Policy - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the integrated development of renewable energy, emphasizing orderly advancement in applications for renewable heating and exploration of pumped storage and new energy storage as regulatory power sources [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Galaxy Securities predicts that by 2025, the electric new energy sector will experience a recovery in valuation and fundamentals, marking an upward window for marginal improvement [1] - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to remain stable, and the wave of semi-solid batteries is anticipated to arrive [1] - The photovoltaic industry is focusing on supply-side reforms, with expectations for a new round of global high growth in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector experienced significant movement, with notable increases in the prices of related stocks and a strong quarterly performance reported by Tianqi Lithium [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The New Energy ETF Fund (516850) rose by 1.4% [1] - Yongxing Materials saw a stock increase of over 10% [1] - Tianqi Lithium's stock increased by over 9% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's stock rose by over 6% [1] Group 2: Company Financials - Tianqi Lithium reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.4855 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 119.26% [1] - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 was 69.9558 million yuan, up 113.56% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters, Tianqi Lithium's net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 180 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 103.16% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed strong performance on September 3, with over 2,500 stocks rising, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices and promoting the exit of outdated production capacity in various industries [1] Group 1: Market Performance - All three major A-share indices strengthened, with significant gains in the comprehensive, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the communication and electronics sectors weakened [1] - The New Energy ETF Fund (516850) increased by 1.2%, with a net inflow of 3.33 million yuan over the past five days, and key holdings such as Yiwei Lithium Energy rose over 11%, while Sunshine Power and Shangneng Electric both increased by over 3% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - In July, policies were introduced focusing on supply-side adjustments to curb disorderly competition through price controls and to promote the exit of outdated production capacity, particularly in the photovoltaic and cement industries [1] - These policy expectations have led to price increases in bulk commodities, aiding in the profit recovery of upstream raw material industries [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The New Energy ETF Fund (516850) and its connected funds (017571/017572) focus on the new energy sector, particularly in batteries, photovoltaics, and electric power, with a tracking index that has a high weight of 45.18% in "anti-involution," allowing investors to accurately grasp opportunities in the new energy sector [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a positive trend with over 4100 stocks rising, indicating a strong market performance [1] - The recent initiative by the China Machinery Industry Federation to combat unfair competition in the photovoltaic industry has led to a price recovery across the entire supply chain, with increases of approximately 20%-30% [1] - The "anti-involution" policy has been elevated to a national strategic level, with the photovoltaic sector being a key focus due to its issues of homogeneous low-price competition and excess capacity [1] Group 2 - The New Energy ETF Fund (516850) and its linked funds (017571/017572) are focused on the new energy sector, particularly in batteries, photovoltaics, and electricity, with a high weight of 45.18% in the "anti-involution" index [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a positive trend with over 4,100 stocks rising, indicating a strong market performance [1] - The recent initiative by the China Machinery Industry Federation to combat unfair competition in the photovoltaic industry has led to a price recovery across the entire supply chain, with increases of approximately 20%-30% [1] - The photovoltaic sector is identified as a key area for the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to address issues of homogeneous low-price competition and excess capacity [1] Group 1 - The New Energy ETF Fund (516850) increased by 1.2%, with Zhongcai Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The price recovery in the photovoltaic industry is synchronized with improvements in overseas market prices [1] - CITIC Securities views the "anti-involution" policy as a national strategic action, positioning the photovoltaic industry at the forefront of this initiative [1] Group 2 - The New Energy ETF Fund and its linked funds focus on the new energy sector, particularly in batteries, photovoltaics, and electricity [2] - The tracking index of the New Energy ETF Fund has a high "anti-involution" weight of 45.18%, allowing investors to effectively capture opportunities in the new energy sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a strong performance, with significant growth in the financial forecasts of companies like Jiejia Weichuang, reflecting a broader trend in the renewable energy market [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jiejia Weichuang has released its half-year performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.7 billion and 1.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.65% to 59.85% compared to the previous year's profit of approximately 1.23 billion yuan [1]. - The company's net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 1.55 billion and 1.81 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 31.37% to 53.41% from the previous year's profit of about 1.18 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights that the "anti-involution" movement has reached a national strategic level in China, with the photovoltaic industry being a key battleground due to its issues of homogenized low-price competition and temporary overcapacity [1]. - The New Energy ETF Fund (516850) and its linked funds focus on the new energy sector, particularly in batteries, photovoltaics, and electricity, allowing investors to capture opportunities in the renewable energy market effectively [2].

Group 1 - A-shares indices opened higher, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, defense, and solid-state batteries leading the gains, while home appliances, real estate, and food & beverage sectors weakened [1] - The China Securities Index for the New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) rose by 1.24%, with constituent stocks such as Mannesmann and Xian Dao Intelligent increasing over 5% [1] - Recent breakthroughs in solid-state battery research revealed the soft-short circuit to hard-short circuit transition mechanism at the nanoscale, which could accelerate the adoption of solid-state batteries over traditional lithium batteries [1] Group 2 - The New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is the only ETF tracking the New Energy Index in the market, covering solar, wind, biomass, nuclear energy, and components of the new energy vehicle industry [2] - The management fee for the New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is 0.15%, with a custody fee of 0.05%, totaling a low cost of 0.2%, making it accessible for investors [2] - The Carbon Neutrality ETF (159790) is the largest fund in the market focused on carbon neutrality themes, tracking the low-carbon economy index and benefiting from national carbon peak and neutrality goals [2]