Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Defense (中船防务) has seen a significant stock increase of over 7%, attributed to a positive earnings forecast for the first half of the year, with net profit expected to rise substantially compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 460 million and RMB 540 million for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 213.25% to 267.73% [1] - Based on seasonal factors in the shipbuilding industry and improved gross margin assumptions, the profit forecast for China Shipbuilding Defense for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 24% to 32% [1] Group 2: Order Backlog and Growth Potential - The subsidiary Huangpu Wenchong currently holds approximately RMB 54 billion in new ship orders, which is expected to support an average annual compound growth rate of 70% in profits from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 3: Corporate Restructuring - On August 4, China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. announced plans to merge with China Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of A-shares, a move that has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - Following the merger, China Heavy Industry will no longer have independent legal status and will be deregistered, marking a significant step in the internal resource integration of China Shipbuilding Group, with potential further consolidation of China Shipbuilding Defense [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The new ship price index at the end of February 2025 was reported at 188.36 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 3% [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing high prosperity, with multiple ship types ramping up production, leading to improved profitability for shipyards and potential for continuous price increases due to supply-demand tightness [3] - The total order book for ships globally reached approximately 367 million deadweight tons by the end of February 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% [11] Summary by Sections Monthly Ship Price Data - The new ship price index increased by 2.84% year-on-year but decreased by 0.54% month-on-month, with a significant increase of 48.19% since 2021, currently at a historical peak of 98.36% [1] - Breakdown by ship type shows container ships at 118.31 points (up 5.26% YoY), oil tankers at 220.98 points (up 4.54% YoY), bulk carriers at 172.69 points (up 3.96% YoY), and LNG carriers at 204.17 points (up 2.05% YoY) [2] Order and Delivery Data - New orders in February 2025 saw a significant decline of 76.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the Spring Festival holiday, with total new orders around 3.7 million deadweight tons [6] - The global completion and delivery of ships in February 2025 was approximately 4.05 million deadweight tons, down 27.6% year-on-year [6] Industry Opportunities - The shipbuilding industry is expected to benefit from the government's focus on "deep-sea technology," with major players like China Shipbuilding Group positioned to gain from policy support [3] - The competitive landscape is improving due to ongoing asset consolidation in the shipbuilding sector, enhancing operational efficiency and scale [3] Key Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, China Power, China Marine Defense, and Yaxing Anchor Chain, with a focus on their strong market positions and growth potential [4]