Group 1: Forex Market Overview - The forex market is experiencing unpredictable volatility, with traders closely monitoring ongoing debates about the independence of the Federal Reserve and speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [1] - Speculators have increased their net short positions in the US dollar (USD) to approximately 61,000 contracts, marking a two-week high, while open interest has risen to nearly 315,000 contracts, the highest in four weeks [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Positions - Speculative net long positions in the euro (EUR) have risen to a four-week high, slightly above 123,000 contracts, while non-commercial traders have increased their bearish positions, bringing their short positions close to 173,200 contracts [4] - Non-commercial traders have increased their net long positions in the Japanese yen (JPY) to nearly 84,500 contracts, the highest in four weeks, while institutional net short positions have climbed to approximately 90,100 contracts, the highest since late July [4] Group 3: British Pound and Australian Dollar - Speculators have increased their net short positions in the British pound (GBP) to a two-week high of about 31,300 contracts, with open interest rising for the third consecutive week to nearly 220,000 contracts, the first increase since early June [4] - The net short positions in the Australian dollar (AUD) have risen to the lowest level since April 2024, approximately 100,600 contracts, with open interest increasing for the fourth consecutive week to nearly 191,200 contracts [5] Group 4: Gold Market - Non-commercial net long positions in gold have rebounded to a two-week high of approximately 214,300 contracts, with open interest also showing a significant rebound, reaching about 443,800 contracts [5] - Gold prices are regaining strong upward momentum, challenging the $3,400 per ounce mark in the coming weeks [5]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观月报】 4 月全球投资十大主线 事 项 4 月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球债券（2.94%）>全球股票（0.98%）> 0%> 人民币（-0.20%）>美元（-4.55%）>大宗商品（-8.79%）。 主要观点 ❖ 十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、标普 500 可选消费与必选消费之比回升反映市场情绪有所修复。市场将特 朗普对关税以及对美联储政策的"让步"视作"特朗普看跌期权"，即当市场 遭遇剧烈下跌时，特朗普最终会释放信号稳住情绪。从股市反应来看，4 月 2 日"对等关税"之后，美股市场出现大幅下跌。但随着特朗普释放谈判信息， 市场预期中美达成贸易协议，可选消费相对于必需消费以及股债比均有所回 升，反映出市场情绪有所修复。 2、特朗普"对等关税"后美元指数创 2022 年 3 月以来新低。特朗普政府 4 月 2 日宣布对主要贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，直接引发美元指数暴跌：4 月 21 日美元指数跌破 98 关口，创 2022 年 3 月以来新低，较年初高点下跌超 10%。 对比特朗普 2018 年宣布对华关税后美元指数上涨，而本轮"对等关税"后美 元指数却下跌，如何理解这 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the net long position in Japanese yen reached 179,212 contracts for the week ending April 29, 2025, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [1]