炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：艾格农业 11月19日上午，日本政府官员在收到中方外交照会时面面相觑——中国海关总署正式通知即日起暂停所 有日本水产品进口。这份通过外交渠道送达的文件仅给日方留下数小时反应时间，连当天抵达港口的扇 贝货轮都不得不原地返航。 据新加坡《联合早报》报道，日本农林水产省数据显示，在中方2023年因福岛核电站核污染水排海问题 暂停日本水产输华前，中国是日本海鲜最大出口地，占日本海产品出口总量的22.5%。若加上香港的 19.5%，输出量可达42%。其中，出口量最高的是日本扇贝，占总体的51.3%。 媒体公开报道显示，自2023年至今，日本各界一直希望恢复水产品对华出口。今年6月，中方一度宣布 允许恢复北海道和青森县等37个地区的海鲜产品进口。然而，高市早苗的错误言论让这一进程戛然而 止。 中国水产禁令对日本水产出口造成的影响十分明显。据美国行业媒体"海鲜资讯源"援引日本农林水产省 （MAFF）统计数据称，2024年，日本渔业产品出口总额为3609亿日元，较上年的3900亿日元下降 7.5%，出口下降的主要原因就是对华海鲜出口的大幅减少。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in Japan's agricultural and fishery product exports to China, primarily due to the suspension of Japanese seafood imports by China following the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge, which has led to a loss of the largest export market for Japan's seafood products [3][4]. Group 1: Export Data and Trends - In 2022, Japan's agricultural and fishery product export value reached 1.4 trillion yen (approximately 73.5 billion yuan), with China contributing significantly, showing a growth of 25.2% to 278.3 billion yen [4]. - The export value of Japanese seafood to China was approximately 87.1 billion yen (around 4.3 billion yuan) in 2022, accounting for about 22% of Japan's total seafood exports [4]. - Following the Fukushima incident on August 24, 2023, Japan's seafood exports to China plummeted from 87.1 billion yen to 32 billion yen, marking the largest decline since 1998, with a year-on-year drop of 57% in agricultural and fishery exports [4][5]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Responses - In 2024, Japan's agricultural and fishery product exports to China decreased by 29% to 168.1 billion yen, continuing the downward trend for the second consecutive year, with seafood exports dropping over 90% to approximately 6.1 billion yen [5]. - Japanese producers are seeking new markets in the U.S., Mexico, and other regions to compensate for the loss of the Chinese market, but the overall export decline persists [6]. - The Japanese government had set ambitious export targets of 2 trillion yen by 2025 and 5 trillion yen by 2030, but these goals are increasingly challenged by the inability to find alternative markets for seafood [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The seafood sector is the only category experiencing a decline in Japan's agricultural and fishery exports, despite overall growth in other categories [6]. - The imposition of a 15% tariff by the Trump administration on Japanese products has further complicated the situation, leading potential international buyers to reconsider their procurement strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - China has suspended imports of Japanese seafood due to Japan's failure to provide promised technical materials and the recent political tensions, significantly impacting Japan's seafood export market [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data and Trends - In 2022, Japan's agricultural and fishery product exports reached 1.4 trillion yen (approximately 73.5 billion yuan), with China being the largest market, contributing 278.3 billion yen, a 25.2% increase [2]. - Japanese seafood exports to China were approximately 87.1 billion yen (around 4.3 billion yuan) in 2022, accounting for about 22% of Japan's total seafood exports [2]. - Following the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge in August 2023, Japan's seafood exports to China plummeted from 87.1 billion yen to 32 billion yen in 2023, marking the largest decline since 1998 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Future Projections - In 2024, Japan's agricultural and fishery product exports to China are projected to decrease by 29% to 168.1 billion yen, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive year [3]. - The export value of Japanese seafood to China is expected to drop to approximately 6.1 billion yen in 2024, a decline of over 90% compared to 2022 [3]. - Japan's seafood industry is struggling to find alternative markets to replace the lost Chinese market, with efforts to explore new buyers in regions like the U.S., Mexico, and Southeast Asia [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Government Goals - Japan's government aimed to increase agricultural and fishery product exports to 2 trillion yen by 2025 and 5 trillion yen by 2030, but these goals are now facing significant challenges [5]. - The imposition of a 15% tariff by the Trump administration has further complicated Japan's seafood export situation, leading potential buyers to reconsider their purchasing plans [5]. - The overall export value of Japanese seafood is projected to decline to approximately 360.9 billion yen in 2024, down 7.5% from 2023, indicating that the loss of the Chinese market has not been compensated by gains in other sectors [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses Japan's recent export of scallops to China, marking the first such export since China's import ban on Japanese seafood two years ago [1] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized the importance of ongoing international monitoring of Fukushima nuclear wastewater and independent sampling by China [1] - The Chinese authorities will continue to enforce strict regulations on Japanese seafood imports to ensure food safety, with immediate action to be taken if any risks are detected [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced that it will continue to monitor Japanese seafood imports, particularly in relation to the Fukushima nuclear wastewater issue, emphasizing the importance of food safety for its citizens [2] - Japan has recently exported a batch of scallops to China, marking the first seafood exports to China since the import ban was implemented two years ago [2] - The Chinese authorities will enforce strict regulations on Japanese seafood imports and will take necessary measures if any risks are detected [2] Group 2 - The market outlook is highly optimistic, with expectations that it may exceed consensus and challenge levels not seen in the past decade, according to Guotai Junan Securities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent export of Japanese scallops to China marks the first instance of Japanese seafood entering the Chinese market since the import ban was imposed two years ago due to concerns over Fukushima nuclear wastewater [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Response - The Chinese government has previously issued announcements regarding the import of Japanese seafood, emphasizing ongoing monitoring of Fukushima nuclear wastewater and independent sampling [1]. - Chinese authorities will continue to enforce strict regulations on the import of Japanese seafood to ensure food safety for the public [1]. - Any identified risks will prompt immediate legal actions to impose necessary import restrictions [1].