Core Viewpoint - The agreement between Japan and the United States on tariffs is expected to significantly boost the Japanese stock market, with a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15%, which is the lowest level announced for any country to date [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Agreement Impact - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, while Japan commits to investing $550 billion in the U.S. [1] - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of Japanese companies, particularly in the automotive sector, as it will lower export costs [2][8]. - The easing of tariff uncertainties is likely to revive delayed pricing strategies, investment plans, and overseas mergers and acquisitions for Japanese firms [2]. Group 2: Earnings and Market Expectations - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Japanese companies have been significantly downgraded, from an expected growth of 8-9% to just 1.6%, indicating that the impact of tariffs has been partially priced in [3]. - The Japanese stock market's EPS is expected to bottom out after the release of quarterly earnings reports, potentially leading to a recovery [3][4]. - If the large-scale investment from Japan to the U.S. results in a depreciation of the yen, it could further boost the EPS of Japanese companies [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Trends - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to rise slightly before EPS bottoms out, which could lead to an upward trend in the Japanese stock market if both metrics move in tandem [4]. - The resolution of tariff issues and confirmation of EPS bottoming out could open up further upside potential for the Japanese stock market [4]. Group 4: Political Leadership and Market Sentiment - The potential resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is not expected to have a significant impact on the stock market, as various successor scenarios could still yield positive outcomes [5][6]. - Different leadership styles, whether conservative or moderate, may influence fiscal policies but are unlikely to negatively affect the stock market [5][6]. Group 5: Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities - The market is likely to see a rotation towards cyclical stocks, particularly those in the automotive sector, which are expected to rebound due to improved pricing competitiveness [7][8]. - Financial stocks may also experience valuation recovery if tariff issues are resolved and market expectations for interest rate hikes are reignited [9]. - Increased imports of U.S. rice could lower rice prices, improving consumer sentiment and benefiting domestic consumption-related sectors [10].

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