Core Viewpoint - The agreement between Japan and the United States on tariffs is expected to significantly boost the Japanese stock market, with a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15%, which is the lowest level announced for any country to date [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Agreement Impact - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, while Japan commits to investing $550 billion in the U.S. [1] - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of Japanese companies, particularly in the automotive sector, as it will lower export costs [2][8]. - The easing of tariff uncertainties is likely to revive delayed pricing strategies, investment plans, and overseas mergers and acquisitions for Japanese firms [2]. Group 2: Earnings and Market Expectations - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Japanese companies have been significantly downgraded, from an expected growth of 8-9% to just 1.6%, indicating that the impact of tariffs has been partially priced in [3]. - The Japanese stock market's EPS is expected to bottom out after the release of quarterly earnings reports, potentially leading to a recovery [3][4]. - If the large-scale investment from Japan to the U.S. results in a depreciation of the yen, it could further boost the EPS of Japanese companies [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Trends - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to rise slightly before EPS bottoms out, which could lead to an upward trend in the Japanese stock market if both metrics move in tandem [4]. - The resolution of tariff issues and confirmation of EPS bottoming out could open up further upside potential for the Japanese stock market [4]. Group 4: Political Leadership and Market Sentiment - The potential resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is not expected to have a significant impact on the stock market, as various successor scenarios could still yield positive outcomes [5][6]. - Different leadership styles, whether conservative or moderate, may influence fiscal policies but are unlikely to negatively affect the stock market [5][6]. Group 5: Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities - The market is likely to see a rotation towards cyclical stocks, particularly those in the automotive sector, which are expected to rebound due to improved pricing competitiveness [7][8]. - Financial stocks may also experience valuation recovery if tariff issues are resolved and market expectations for interest rate hikes are reignited [9]. - Increased imports of U.S. rice could lower rice prices, improving consumer sentiment and benefiting domestic consumption-related sectors [10].

Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

49 6 2 朱冰倩 ◎记者 马嘉悦 王彭 安昀 李长风 «国际117 all In & 许巳阳 吴旭 地缘局势难解、经济预期反复……在刚刚过去的上半年，全球市场波动显著加剧。A股和港股的结构性 行情，黄金价格的持续上涨，让不少取势、顺势的机构收获了亮眼回报。 展望下半年，超额收益从何来？全球资金再配置下，哪些市场将受益？上半年科技股的强劲走势能否延 续？带着这些问题，上海证券报记者邀请了路博迈基金首席市场策略师朱冰倩，施罗德基金副总经理、 首席投资官安昀，联博基金市场策略负责人李长风，银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳，久期投资宏观策略负 责人吴旭，探讨下半年资产配置思路。 他们认为，在美元走弱的趋势下，全球资金再配置节奏将显著加快。从具体配置来看：一方面，重点关 注中国科技、医药等板块的成长空间；另一方面，精选一些票息类资产作为稳定收益来源的底仓，提高 利率波段交易灵活性，关注欧洲、澳洲等国高评级债券的防御性价值，在低利率时代寻找更多收益来 源。 放眼全球： 非美市场将迎更多增量资金 记者：今年以来美元显著走弱，是何原因？而这一趋势将如何影响后续的资产配置？ 朱冰倩：美元走弱是多重因素交织作用的结果。一方面，美国关 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a stable trading environment for thematic investments, with a notable surge in stablecoins and PCB themes, while new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and rare earth permanent magnet themes are experiencing a pullback. There is optimism for technology-related themes to present new investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Thematic Trading Overview - The average daily trading volume for hot themes from June 16 to 20 was 432 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.35%. Overall, the trading heat for themes has remained stable since June [1] - The structure of hot themes is shifting rapidly, with stablecoin themes leading the market due to concentrated catalysts, while oil and gas development themes remain active amid Middle East turmoil [1] Group 2: Digital Currency - The establishment of an international operating center for digital RMB was proposed at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to facilitate cross-border trade and promote the internationalization of the RMB [2] - The introduction of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and the U.S. is anticipated to accelerate the development of the digital currency industry, making stablecoins a vital tool for cross-border payments and corporate financing [2] - Recommendations include focusing on financial innovations in digital currency and cross-border payments, particularly for blockchain and cross-border clearing system providers [2] Group 3: AI Intelligence - Major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu are launching AI intelligence products, with Manus allowing general user registration [2] - AI intelligence is seen as a complete end-to-end solution that enhances data utilization and accelerates the development of vertical applications, becoming a key catalyst for the commercialization of AI applications [2] - Recommendations include investing in internet giants with capital expenditure and user advantages, as well as companies benefiting from increased demand for computing power [2] Group 4: Domestic Consumption - The Chinese government has issued guidelines to improve social security and public services, aiming to boost domestic consumption and stimulate service consumption potential [3] - The focus is on upgrading bulk consumption and leveraging emerging consumption trends, with recommendations for sectors like education, childcare, and domestic brands in cosmetics and trendy toys [3] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations to encourage mergers and acquisitions, leading to a significant increase in the number of major asset restructuring plans since 2025, which is 3.3 times that of the same period in 2024 [4] - The total value of completed major asset restructuring transactions has exceeded 200 billion yuan, which is 11.6 times that of the same period in 2024 [4] - Recommendations focus on quality asset restructuring in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and high-end equipment, as well as professional integration in energy resources and public services [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in the context of a weakening US dollar cycle and its implications for various sectors and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The weakening of the US dollar is becoming evident, influenced by multiple factors including the expanding US fiscal deficit, which is projected to worsen to 7% by 2026. This trend is expected to positively impact the A-share market [1][2]. 2. **A-share Market Performance**: Historically, during weak dollar periods, the A-share market has shown strong performance, particularly in consumer sectors, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and finance [1][4]. 3. **New Policy Cycle**: Since September 2024, several favorable policies have been introduced, including guidelines for medium- and long-term funding and new regulations for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to support financial asset prices [1][5]. 4. **Global Liquidity Impact**: The global liquidity easing cycle has a significant effect on the A-share market. The period from 2019 to 2021 saw a bull market driven by global liquidity, while a shift to negative liquidity in 2022 led to a bear market [1][6]. 5. **Current Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The European Central Bank has also been aggressive in its rate cuts, while the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit [1][7]. 6. **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: There has been a notable shift in foreign investment sentiment from bearish to bullish regarding Chinese assets, driven by confidence in China's fiscal and monetary policies and the rise of Chinese technological hard assets [1][3][8][9]. 7. **Market Expectations and Catalysts**: The market is currently facing pessimistic expectations regarding export demand and economic deflation. However, potential positive influences include structural fiscal policies and a possible resolution of the US-China trade conflict [1][10][11]. 8. **Market Trends and Performance**: The A-share market is expected to experience a period of volatility followed by upward movement, supported by the weak dollar trend, policy support, and overall liquidity improvement [1][12]. 9. **Key Catalysts for Market Breakthrough**: For the market to break through current resistance levels, key catalysts such as unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, domestic policy implementation, and breakthroughs in emerging industries are necessary [1][13]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with a projected annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years. A strategic allocation of 60% in equity assets is recommended [1][14][15]. 11. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas for the second half of the year include artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumer trends [1][16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations, as it could significantly impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3][11].