49 6 2 朱冰倩 ◎记者 马嘉悦 王彭 安昀 李长风 «国际117 all In & 许巳阳 吴旭 地缘局势难解、经济预期反复……在刚刚过去的上半年，全球市场波动显著加剧。A股和港股的结构性 行情，黄金价格的持续上涨，让不少取势、顺势的机构收获了亮眼回报。 展望下半年，超额收益从何来？全球资金再配置下，哪些市场将受益？上半年科技股的强劲走势能否延 续？带着这些问题，上海证券报记者邀请了路博迈基金首席市场策略师朱冰倩，施罗德基金副总经理、 首席投资官安昀，联博基金市场策略负责人李长风，银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳，久期投资宏观策略负 责人吴旭，探讨下半年资产配置思路。 他们认为，在美元走弱的趋势下，全球资金再配置节奏将显著加快。从具体配置来看：一方面，重点关 注中国科技、医药等板块的成长空间；另一方面，精选一些票息类资产作为稳定收益来源的底仓，提高 利率波段交易灵活性，关注欧洲、澳洲等国高评级债券的防御性价值，在低利率时代寻找更多收益来 源。 放眼全球： 非美市场将迎更多增量资金 记者：今年以来美元显著走弱，是何原因？而这一趋势将如何影响后续的资产配置？ 朱冰倩：美元走弱是多重因素交织作用的结果。一方面，美国关 ...

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Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in the context of a weakening US dollar cycle and its implications for various sectors and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The weakening of the US dollar is becoming evident, influenced by multiple factors including the expanding US fiscal deficit, which is projected to worsen to 7% by 2026. This trend is expected to positively impact the A-share market [1][2]. 2. **A-share Market Performance**: Historically, during weak dollar periods, the A-share market has shown strong performance, particularly in consumer sectors, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and finance [1][4]. 3. **New Policy Cycle**: Since September 2024, several favorable policies have been introduced, including guidelines for medium- and long-term funding and new regulations for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to support financial asset prices [1][5]. 4. **Global Liquidity Impact**: The global liquidity easing cycle has a significant effect on the A-share market. The period from 2019 to 2021 saw a bull market driven by global liquidity, while a shift to negative liquidity in 2022 led to a bear market [1][6]. 5. **Current Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The European Central Bank has also been aggressive in its rate cuts, while the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit [1][7]. 6. **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: There has been a notable shift in foreign investment sentiment from bearish to bullish regarding Chinese assets, driven by confidence in China's fiscal and monetary policies and the rise of Chinese technological hard assets [1][3][8][9]. 7. **Market Expectations and Catalysts**: The market is currently facing pessimistic expectations regarding export demand and economic deflation. However, potential positive influences include structural fiscal policies and a possible resolution of the US-China trade conflict [1][10][11]. 8. **Market Trends and Performance**: The A-share market is expected to experience a period of volatility followed by upward movement, supported by the weak dollar trend, policy support, and overall liquidity improvement [1][12]. 9. **Key Catalysts for Market Breakthrough**: For the market to break through current resistance levels, key catalysts such as unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, domestic policy implementation, and breakthroughs in emerging industries are necessary [1][13]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with a projected annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years. A strategic allocation of 60% in equity assets is recommended [1][14][15]. 11. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas for the second half of the year include artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumer trends [1][16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations, as it could significantly impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3][11].