Core Viewpoint - The competition between Gree Electric and Xiaomi in the air conditioning market is intensifying, with Gree facing declining revenues and profits while Xiaomi is making significant inroads into the market [1][3][20]. Financial Performance - Gree Electric reported a revenue of 1376.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 6.62%, and a net profit of 214.61 billion yuan, down 2.27% [3]. - In Q3, Gree's revenue was 98.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.09%, and a net profit of 70.49 billion yuan, down 9.92% [4]. - Gree's reliance on its air conditioning business is significant, with projections indicating that by mid-2025, this segment will account for 78.38% of its revenue [5]. Market Position and Competition - Xiaomi has entered the air conditioning market aggressively, briefly surpassing Gree in online sales in June [3][20]. - Gree's market share in the air conditioning sector is currently at 17%, ranking second behind Midea, which holds 29% [20]. Diversification Efforts - Gree has attempted diversification into mobile phones and electric vehicles, but these efforts have not yet yielded significant results [9]. - The company has invested in high-end machine tools and chips, but these sectors have not yet contributed meaningfully to revenue [9]. Channel Strategy - Gree is undergoing a channel reform to adapt to the changing retail landscape, moving from a traditional dealer model to a more integrated online and offline retail approach [12][15]. - The company has launched new retail formats and is transitioning to a flatter, more digital sales structure [16]. Product Strategy - Gree has introduced lower-priced products to compete in the mid-range market, such as the "Jinghong" brand air conditioner priced at 1899 yuan [18]. - Despite these efforts, Gree does not hold a leading position in the AIoT or mid-range product segments [18]. R&D and Innovation - Gree has increased its R&D spending, with expenditures rising from 54 billion yuan to 56.2 billion yuan year-on-year [20]. - The company aims to better translate its R&D outcomes into marketable products that meet consumer demand [20]. Dividend Policy - Despite declining revenues and profits, Gree Electric maintains a high dividend payout, proposing a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 55.85 billion yuan [21].

Consumer Macro Strategy - The report highlights three major events that influenced consumer market trends over the past two weeks, including stable growth in overall consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with a notable increase in outbound tourism but fewer domestic consumption highlights leading to a post-holiday decline in related sectors [3][10] - The Q3 earnings preview indicates that while the overall consumer service sector remains stable compared to Q2, consumption-related products face high base pressure in Q4, and other sectors are in a positioning phase after negative earnings surprises in Q3 [3][10] - The ongoing US-China technological competition is expanding into the consumer sector, with new tariffs announced by the US on imports from China, posing challenges for export-oriented consumer companies [3][10] New Consumption Manufacturing - The two-wheeler market showed strong performance in Q3, with healthy inventory levels in downstream channels, but the industry faces a critical test in Q1 2026 [21] - The pet industry is experiencing weaker performance in the off-season, but the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to act as a catalyst [21] Light Industry Manufacturing - In the home furnishing sector, domestic demand remains weak due to unhealed real estate issues, while external demand faces increased tariff risks, with significant tariff hikes announced by the US [24] - The new tobacco sector is seeing intensified actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the US, benefiting legitimate brands, while HNB products maintain strong production schedules in Japan and Europe [27] - The packaging paper market is experiencing a bullish sentiment with frequent price increases expected [27] Textile and Apparel - The apparel retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% in August, but sales weakened in September and during the National Day holiday due to weather conditions and timing changes [29] - The report suggests focusing on brands with unique market positions and those showing significant performance advantages in sub-sectors [29][30] Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is recovering after a previous decline, with cosmetic retail sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in August, indicating a positive trend [31] - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands with strong performance and those undergoing successful reforms [31] Home Appliances - TV panel prices remained stable in early October, with various sizes maintaining consistent pricing [32] - Gree Electric's new product line aims to capture the online market segment, enhancing its competitive position [32][33] Retail and E-commerce - Offline retail shows signs of stabilization, with supermarkets performing well while department stores face slight pressure [34] - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, enhancing consumer acceptance and brand premium capabilities [34] Social Services - The report expresses optimism for high-value dining and the recovery of mid-to-high-end restaurants, alongside stable growth in tourism and education sectors [35] - The tea beverage market is expected to see a decline in performance due to policy impacts, with leading brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming showing growth potential [36]