消息面上，近期，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《育儿补贴制度实施方案》。开源证券表示，此 前已相继有地区层面的生育补贴政策出台，本次在全国层面全面向群众直接发放现金补贴，属于自上而 下的政策定调，具有开创性意义，后续地区层面政策接力有望形成合力。近年婴配粉行业需求承压，本 次政策刺激下需求及消费信心有望恢复，叠加2024年生肖偏好催化下人口数量增长，2025年婴配粉需求 有望迎来阶段性好转。 华西证券（002926）指出，中国圣牧是首家获得中国和欧盟有机标准双认证的原奶品牌。公司业务涵盖 整个乳品行业价值链，包括牧草种植、奶牛养殖到生产原料奶以及加工生产高端液态奶产品，目前也是 我国规模最大的有机原料奶生产商。同时公司通过股权深度绑定下游乳企，一方面可以平抑原奶价格周 期给生产经营活动带来的不确定性，一方面亦可获得下游乳企的支持，目前蒙牛集团持有公司29.99% 股份，是公司最大股东。 中国圣牧(01432)午后涨超11%，月内累计涨幅逾五成。截至发稿，涨11.36%，报0.49港元，成交额 2316.12万港元。 ...

Group 1 - China Shengmu (01432) saw its stock price increase by over 11%, with a cumulative rise of more than 50% in the month [1] - The recent implementation of a nationwide cash subsidy for child-rearing by the central government is expected to boost demand and consumer confidence in the infant formula industry, which has faced pressure in recent years [1] - The demand for infant formula is anticipated to improve in 2025, driven by the new policy and a favorable demographic trend due to the 2024 zodiac preference [1] Group 2 - China Shengmu is the first organic milk brand to receive dual certification from China and the EU, covering the entire dairy industry value chain from pasture planting to high-end liquid milk production [1] - The company is the largest organic raw milk producer in China and has established deep equity ties with downstream dairy enterprises, which helps stabilize raw milk price fluctuations and secures support from these enterprises [1] - Mengniu Group holds a 29.99% stake in China Shengmu, making it the largest shareholder [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Shengmu, as a leading organic raw milk producer, is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-end organic milk driven by rising consumer spending levels [1][2] - China Shengmu is the first brand in China to obtain dual certification for organic standards from both China and the EU, covering the entire dairy industry value chain from pasture planting to high-end liquid milk production [1] - The company has a significant geographical advantage, operating in the Ulan Buh Desert of Inner Mongolia, recognized as a prime milk source, which enhances its competitive edge in ensuring milk quality and safety [1] Group 2 - Current raw milk prices have declined from a peak of 4.38 RMB/kg to 3.04 RMB/kg, but the decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in milk prices [2] - Beef prices have also stabilized after a decline in 2023, which, along with the expected recovery in milk prices, is anticipated to significantly improve the company's profit performance [2] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be -0.47 billion, 4.36 billion, and 7.09 billion RMB respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 5.5 for 2026, which is significantly lower than the average PE of comparable companies [2]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The domestic economic recovery shows continued differentiation, with resilient consumer market recovery and ongoing growth in logistics volume [2][7] - As of July 11, the average duration of long-term government bonds has risen to approximately 5.4 years, while the average duration of credit bonds remains stable at about 2.2 years [8][9] - The report suggests a narrow fluctuation in interest rate bonds for Q3 2025, with a bullish outlook on long-term municipal and capital bonds [9][14] Group 2: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, and social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 8.3% year-on-year [11][13] - The report indicates a significant increase in social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [12][13] - The report anticipates a slight increase in new loans for 2025, driven by government bond financing and credit [11][13] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - China Shengmu (01432.HK) - China Shengmu is the first organic raw milk brand to obtain dual certification from China and the EU, and it is the largest organic raw milk producer in China [22][23] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the high-end organic milk market as consumer demand for healthy food increases [23][24] - The report forecasts a significant recovery in profits due to the anticipated stabilization of milk and beef prices, which have previously negatively impacted the company's financial performance [23][24] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Crystal Technology (603005.SH) - Crystal Technology is a leading supplier of WLCSP advanced packaging, focusing on CMOS image sensor chips and expanding into new fields such as optical devices and GaN devices [25][26] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the increasing demand for automotive CIS, with a projected revenue of 1.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.72% [25][26] - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantage with a gross margin of 43.28%, which is significantly higher than its peers [26][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [3] Core Views - The company is a leading organic raw milk producer in China, with a fundamental reversal expected [3] - The company has obtained dual certification for organic standards from China and the EU, making it a prominent player in the organic milk market [6] - The company operates across the entire dairy value chain, from pasture planting to raw milk production and high-end liquid milk processing [6] - The high-end organic milk market is anticipated to continue expanding due to rising consumer demand for healthy food options [6] - The company benefits from a unique geographical advantage in Inner Mongolia, recognized as a prime milk source region [6] - A rebound in milk and beef prices is expected to enhance the company's fundamental performance [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,383.63 million RMB - 2024: 3,126.18 million RMB - 2025E: 2,989.43 million RMB - 2026E: 3,207.90 million RMB - 2027E: 3,447.21 million RMB - The expected growth rates show a decline in 2024 and 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is -47.31 million RMB, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2026 is estimated at 5.51, significantly lower than the average P/E of comparable companies at 9.6 [6]