机构：中金公司 研究员：邓学/任丹霖/厍静兰/崔力丹 我们与市场的最大不同？市场关注公司机器人技术能力，我们提示公司产能全球布局，机器人及液冷在 海外客户拓展上均有潜力。 潜在催化剂：机器人/数据中心液冷业务获得订单。 盈利预测与估值 我们预计公司FY26-27 年EPS 分别为0.28/0.30 美元，FY25-27CAGR 为5.0%，当前股价对应FY26/27 14.4/13.3x P/E。采用P/E估值，给予目标价43.6 港元，对应FY26/27E 20.0/18.9x P/E，较当前股价有 40.2%的上行空间，给予跑赢行业评级。 风险 投资亮点 首次覆盖德昌电机控股（00179）给予跑赢行业评级，目标价43.60港元，基于P/E 估值法，对应估值倍 数FY26 20X，公司是全球微电机头部企业，进军人形机器人及液冷新领域。理由如下： 公司是汽车微电机领军企业，深度覆盖全球市场多年。公司深耕微电机行业60 余年，发展为微电机、 控制器等全球头部企业。据 FY2025 数据，分业务看汽车/工商业营收占比约85%/15%，汽车贡献近年来 主要增长；亚太/美洲/欧洲&中东&非洲的营收占比36.8%/32 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Feilong Co., Ltd. Company Overview - Feilong Co., Ltd. has shown steady growth in its main business, with a significant compound profit growth rate over the past three years, expecting a profit of approximately 400 million RMB this year, with a current market capitalization of over 8 billion RMB, reflecting the value of its main business [2][4] Key Points - **Market Position in Liquid Cooling Pumps**: Feilong Co. holds a monopoly in the server liquid cooling pump sector, being the only company in China capable of mass production of liquid cooling pumps. The company is benefiting from the domestic server liquid cooling market led by S clients, with expected domestic business profits reaching tens of millions of RMB this year and a potential growth of over 50% next year [2][4] - **Overseas Orders**: The company has achieved breakthroughs in overseas server liquid cooling pump orders through leading Taiwanese integrators, with expectations of large volume orders in the next 1-3 months, significantly enhancing the profit elasticity for the next year [2][4] - **Potential in PC Liquid Cooling**: Feilong Co. has potential in the personal computer (PC) liquid cooling sector. With the increasing demand for AI and high computing power, related products are expected to emerge this year. Even a 10% penetration rate could lead to a market scale in the tens of millions [2][4] - **Robotics Business Development**: The company is strategically positioned in the robotics sector, maintaining close relationships with automotive companies such as Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and Chery. This could lead to advancements in humanoid robotics, providing new growth points and valuation increases for the company [2][4][5] - **Positive Mid-Year Report**: The mid-year report showed good performance, with smooth progress in overseas liquid cooling pumps, potential PC liquid cooling solutions, and developments in the robotics business. These factors are expected to continuously drive the stock price upward [2][5] Additional Insights - **Valuation**: Feilong Co. is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities worth monitoring and allocation, both in the short and long term [3][5] - **Catalysts for Growth**: Key catalysts for the third quarter of 2025 include the company's main business segments, which can maintain a compound profit growth rate of 15% to 20% annually, alongside the anticipated growth in liquid cooling pumps and robotics [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is a leader in automotive water pumps, with IDC liquid cooling and humanoid robot businesses expected to drive a second growth curve, leveraging technology reuse and customer collaboration to potentially exceed performance expectations [1] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 56 billion, 68 billion, and 80 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 18% respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 19% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.5 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 34%, 21%, and 22%, leading to a CAGR of 25% [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 19X, 16X, and 13X [5] Market Position and Comparisons - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies such as Yinlun, Shuguang, and Shenling is 35X for 2026E, while the company's current P/E is only 16X, indicating significant upside potential [3] - The company has a 25% market share in the domestic automotive water pump market and a 20% share in the turbocharger casing market, establishing it as a leader in these segments [10] Growth Catalysts - Future catalysts include orders for liquid cooling pumps, robot orders, and quarterly earnings growth [4] - The liquid cooling server market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, with the company positioned to capture a share of this emerging market [10] - The company has entered the humanoid robot sector, with potential for growth similar to that of a comparable company, Sanhua Intelligent Control [10]