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敦志刚:全球货币政策转向新纪元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 11:14
编者按:美联储年内首次降息。近日,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员、全球治理观察员敦志刚在每日经济新闻发表文章表示,全球货币政策将迎来 重构,新兴市场获发展契机,但也面临债务风险暴露等问题,国际货币体系也将变革,全球经济增长模式迎来战略机遇期。现将全文发布如下:(全文约 6000字,预计阅读时间15分钟) 北京时间2025年9月18日凌晨,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至4.50%下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%。这是美联储2025年以来首次降息,也 是自2024年9月开启降息周期以来的第四次降息,使本轮宽松周期的累计降息幅度达到125个基点。 此次货币政策调整发生在全球经济格局深度重构、国际金融体系加速转型的关键时期。 从历史比较视角观察,本次降息周期与2001年互联网泡沫破裂、2007年全球金融危机以及2019年疫情冲击等历史时期的货币政策应对既存在共性特征,更 在通胀环境、债务结构、地缘政治等维度呈现出前所未有的复杂性。 从现实传导机制分析,此次降息将通过多重渠道重塑全球金融市场的风险定价逻辑、改变国际资本配置格局、重构主要经济体政策协调框架。 从未来发展视角展望,这一政策抉择将加速 ...
美国3月通胀意外“停滞” 经济‘喘息期’或难持续
智通财经网· 2025-04-30 15:00
Group 1 - The PCE price index remained flat in March, marking the first "zero growth" in nearly a year, while the core PCE also showed no change, indicating a temporary easing of inflationary pressures [1][2] - Real consumer spending increased by 0.7% month-over-month, surpassing previous values, suggesting that consumers are accelerating purchases ahead of impending tariff increases [1][2] - March saw the strongest growth in real disposable income in over a year, significantly supporting consumer spending, particularly in durable goods like automobiles [3] Group 2 - The first quarter of 2023 recorded the first quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since 2022, primarily due to a surge in imports and moderate consumer spending growth [2] - Despite the temporary slowdown in inflation, companies like Shein and Procter & Gamble have begun raising prices, while others like American Airlines and General Motors have withdrawn earnings guidance due to policy uncertainties [3] - The upcoming implementation of tariffs is expected to exert upward pressure on prices, potentially dampening consumer behavior and complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decisions [3]