根据FactSet和高盛的数据，亿万富翁迈克尔.塞勒的Strategy公司(MSTR.US)作为比特币的重要持有者， 其股票正被"大量做空"——这一市场术语指代对股价持续下跌的强烈押注。然而，部分分析师指出，这 种持仓布局未必反映投资者对股价持续下跌的预期。 根据最新提交的13F机构持仓文件，Jane Street已购入超过700万股贝莱德旗下iShares比特币信托(IBIT)， 同时当时还持有大量Strategy股票头寸。 值得关注的是，Anchorage Digital联合创始人兼首席执行官Nathan McCauley于2月25日披露，该数字银 行在其资产负债表中配置了Strategy的永久优先股STRC(STRC.US)。 据报道，分析师将空头持仓量上升归因于基差交易策略——该策略通过捕捉两个关联市场间的价差获 利。具体操作中，交易者可同时买入比特币现货ETF(如贝莱德的IBIT)并做空Strategy股票，从而在 Strategy相对于其比特币持仓的溢价收窄时套利。若叠加配对期货合约，还能额外获取资金费率收益， 同时维持市场中性头寸。 比特币财资公司专家Brian Brookshire指出："我怀 ...

Group 1 - The total net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $88.04 million on February 20, with Blackrock's ETF IBIT leading the inflow at $64.46 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $6.1303 billion [1] - The total net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs was $17.2 million, with Blackrock's ETF ETHA having the highest single-day inflow of $1.7826 million, resulting in a historical total net inflow of $1.1875 billion [1] - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [1]

888、666、188……专属炒股靓号来了！新年定制福利，开启马年投资好运>> （来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，据 SoSoValue 数据，美东时间 2 月 17 日比特币现货 ETF 总净流出 1.05 亿美元，灰度 BTC 净流入 3597.35 万美元居首。以太坊现货 ETF 总净流入 4863.05 万美元，九支 ETF 无一净流出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - ARK Invest identifies four major trends enhancing Bitcoin's value, suggesting it is evolving from an "optional" asset to a strategic asset in institutional portfolios [1] Group 1: 2026 Macroeconomic Background - The macro landscape is changing as the U.S. ends its quantitative tightening (QT) and enters an early stage of interest rate cuts, with over $10 trillion in low-yield money market funds and fixed-income ETFs potentially rotating into risk assets [2] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Normalization - Regulatory transparency is both a constraint and a catalyst for institutional adoption, with policymakers advancing frameworks to clarify digital asset regulations, custody, trading, and disclosure processes [3] - The U.S. government is addressing Bitcoin-related issues, including discussions on incorporating Bitcoin into national reserves [4] Group 3: Structural Demand: ETFs and DATs - The expansion of spot Bitcoin ETFs is reshaping market supply and demand, with ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) projected to hold more Bitcoin than newly mined and dormant Bitcoin combined by the end of 2025 [5] - By the end of 2025, ETFs and DATs are expected to hold over 12% of the circulating Bitcoin supply, despite a price drop influenced by external factors [8] Group 4: Bitcoin and Gold as Value Storage - In 2025, gold prices surged by 64.7% due to inflation concerns, while Bitcoin prices fell by 6.2%, indicating a divergence in their responses to macroeconomic narratives [11] - The cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached levels that took gold ETFs over 15 years to achieve, suggesting growing recognition of Bitcoin as a value storage and diversification tool [13] Group 5: Market Structure and Investor Behavior - Bitcoin's volatility has decreased over time, with maximum drawdowns not exceeding 50% in the current cycle, indicating a more resilient market due to increased participation and liquidity [16] - Historical data shows that holding period and position size are more critical than timing for Bitcoin investors, with long-term holders benefiting from focusing on Bitcoin's value proposition [19][21] Group 6: Strategic Issues for Bitcoin - In 2026, the narrative around Bitcoin has shifted from survival to its role in diversified portfolios, characterized as a scarce, non-sovereign asset amid evolving global monetary policies [22] - Bitcoin is viewed as a high-beta extension of traditional value storage assets like gold, with regulatory advancements facilitating access to global liquidity [24]

2月12日美股盘后，Coinbase发布了2025年第四季度财报，显示其营收和盈利均不及预期，去年第四季度亏损约6.67亿美元，这也是自2023年以来首次季度亏 损。在市场整体走弱背景下，比特币（BTC）等主流加密资产价格显著回落，交易量萎缩进一步压制了交易手续费收入，引发交易平台股价震荡和分析师下 调目标价。 本报告将围绕财报核心数据、市场行情反馈及未来趋势进行详尽解读与分析。 根据2月12日发布的财报，Coinbase尽管全年运营指标创下历史新高，但在2025年第四季度却出现净亏损6.7亿美元，结束了连续八个季度的盈利记录。 市场原本预计Coinbase每股盈利将在0.55至0.92美元之间，但实际公布的亏损高达每股2.49美元，远低于预期。同时，净收入约为17.8亿美元，同比下降约 22%，也未达到华尔街预测的18.5亿美元。 财报显示，交易活动的大幅萎缩是主要原因：消费者交易量下降超过45%，导致交易收入同比下降约37%，至9.827亿美元。加密资产整体市场下滑进一步加 剧了这一影响，比特币在10月初曾突破12.6万美元，但年底收盘跌至不足8.85万美元，全年下跌近三成。自比特币10月高点以来，整个加 ...

2月11日，比特币在触及60130美元的阶段性低点后反弹超14%，一度重回72000美元上方。尽管市场初 步确认了底部支撑，但ZFX山海证券认为，顶级交易员目前的避险情绪依然浓厚。在经历了从2025年10 月历史高位回落52%的剧震后，大户与做市商对于立即重新建立高杠杆多头表现得极为克制。这种"超 怀疑"立场反映了在宏观不确定性下，专业资金对价格波动率的重新评估。 衍生品市场的风向标也显示出空头对冲情绪的激增。在Deribit期权交易所，看跌/看涨期权持仓比例一 度飙升至3.1的极端水平，显示出投资者对进一步回调的深度担忧。ZFX山海证券认为，虽然目前的看 跌期权需求已有所回落至1.7，但整体市场依然缺乏强有力的看涨动能支撑。这种衍生品需求的疲软， 本质上是市场在等待做市商和交易平台确认清算风险已完全释放的信号。 衍生品市场的风向标也显示出空头对冲情绪的激增。在Deribit期权交易所，看跌/看涨期权持仓比例一 度飙升至3.1的极端水平，显示出投资者对进一步回调的深度担忧。ZFX山海证券认为，虽然目前的看 跌期权需求已有所回落至1.7，但整体市场依然缺乏强有力的看涨动能支撑。这种衍生品需求的疲软， 本质上是市 ...

（来源：吴说） MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 吴说获悉，据 SoSoValue 数据，昨日（美东时间 2 月 3 日）比特币现货 ETF 总净流出 2.72 亿美元，富 达 FBTC 净流出 1.49 亿美元居首。以太坊现货 ETF 昨日总净流入 1405.51 万美元，过去 3 日净流出后 首次净流入。Solana 现货 ETF 总净流入 124 万美元，XRP 现货 ETF 总净流入 1946 万美元。 ...

最近，比特币走势有点糟糕。 比特币从去年10月的历史高点一路下滑，跌幅接近 33%； 以太坊更惨，较去年夏天高点回撤 40%以上； 而曾经被认为是"机构入场里程碑"的比特币现货ETF，今年1月却出现了净流出 2.27亿美元。 与之对比的是—— 同一时间，美股在创新高，AI概念股连涨第三年， 连"被年轻人嫌弃的老古董"黄金，都在悄悄刷新历史纪录。 现在，加密市场里流传起一句话： 先活下来再说。 问题来了： 一、这轮下跌，不是"突然崩"，而是"慢性失血" 先说一个很多人忽略的细节： 这轮下跌，并不是恐慌性踩踏。 没有FTX，没有Luna，没有"连夜清零"的黑天鹅事件。 相反，它更像一种——持续、冷静、无情的撤退。 而资金正被另一个宏大的故事吸引：AI！ 过去一年，资本市场发生了一次非常残酷的分流： 真实数据摆在这里： 这说明什么？ 不是恐慌出逃，而是"资金不再加仓"。 如果把比特币过去十多年的上涨周期拉成一条时间轴，你会发现一个极其稳定的规律： 每一轮牛市，背后都有一条清晰、甚至近乎宗教化的主线叙事。 加密货币到底发生了什么？ 这是一次短期回调，还是趋势真的变了？ 比特币那套"长期上涨逻辑"，还成立吗？ 钱，是没 ...

There’s something special that happened in January 2024. After years of hope and pain, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first nine spot Bitcoin ETFs. When this approval went through, Bitcoin, and by large, crypto as an industry, ushered in a new era. No longer will Bitcoin and, by extension, some of the best cryptos to buy, be shaped by the whims of retail traders. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are regulated by the SEC, and that means institutions, often managing billions, if not trillions ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 and Trump's proposal for a Bitcoin reserve have transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a mainstream recognized asset class, referred to as "digital gold" by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Evolution and Market Positioning - The Trump administration is accelerating Bitcoin's transition from a retail-driven speculative tool to an institutionally recognized asset class, altering its hedging characteristics [2][4]. - The study examines Bitcoin's hedging properties compared to gold during different crisis periods, particularly focusing on the evolution of Bitcoin's hedging features in the Trump 2.0 era [5][6]. - Prior to Trump 2.0, Bitcoin and gold exhibited similar hedging characteristics primarily during mid-term crises, but this similarity has diminished in the Trump 2.0 period, with Bitcoin showing increased correlation with the market [6][21]. Group 2: Methodology and Data Analysis - The research utilizes frequency domain decomposition and quantile Granger causality tests to analyze Bitcoin's hedging properties over time, providing new empirical evidence on its behavior under different market conditions [6][12][13]. - Data from March 2015 to May 2025 was collected, focusing on the significant growth and stability of the cryptocurrency market post-2015, ensuring reliability in comparisons with traditional financial assets [12][13]. Group 3: Risk Transmission and Hedging Properties - The results indicate that Bitcoin has the lowest risk transmission levels among various assets, suggesting its potential as a diversification investment [19][20]. - In the Trump 2.0 era, the risk transmission structure has changed significantly, with an overall increase in sensitivity to policy and geopolitical shocks, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market [21][22]. - Bitcoin's hedging properties are context-dependent, showing potential as a hedging asset during specific crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Silicon Valley Bank collapse [24][26]. Group 4: Implications for Investors and Policymakers - The findings suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from a quasi-hedging asset to a high-risk growth asset, indicating that it may no longer be suitable for long-term hedging against traditional risk assets [31][34]. - For investors, it is crucial to recognize the dynamic changes in Bitcoin's hedging attributes and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly, especially in the context of increasing correlation with mainstream assets [34]. - Policymakers should enhance monitoring and regulation of the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, given the increased risk transmission observed in the Trump 2.0 era [23][34].