在12月的最后几个交易日，比特币交易员正尝试进行"最后一搏"，希望在年末前抹去年内跌幅。然而，这一努 力再次受挫。周二，比特币连续第二天向9万美元关口发起冲击后，涨势再度停滞。 今年年初，比特币曾因市场憧憬特朗普政府可能采取更为"加密友好"的政策而走强。但随后，围绕关税政策的 不确定性冲击全球金融市场，比特币也未能幸免。10月10日，大量高杠杆头寸被集中平仓，给市场带来沉重打 击。相比之下，美股等其他风险资产已逐步修复跌幅，而比特币至今仍未走强。 此外，比特币现货ETF需求降温，成为压制价格的重要因素。数据显示，第四季度比特币ETF累计资金净流出 已达60亿美元，在币价持续低于9万美元的背景下，机构资金态度趋于谨慎。 整体来看，在流动性清淡、资金持续流出以及宏观不确定性仍存的情况下，比特币年末行情依旧承压，短期内 或难以摆脱区间震荡格局。 自10月经历一轮剧烈回调以来，比特币基本维持在约8.5万至9.5万美元的区间内震荡。该轮回调使比特币今年 以来走势明显转弱，目前较去年12月下跌约5%，有望录得三年来首次年度下跌。值得注意的是，比特币曾在 10月初一度上涨约30%，并刷新历史新高，但随后快速回吐涨幅。 做市 ...

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，据 SoSoValue 数据，美东时间 12 月 26 日，比特币现货 ETF 总净流出 2.76 亿美元，持续 6 日净流出。12 月 26 日净流出最多的比特币现货 ETF 为贝莱德 (Blackrock） ETF IBIT，单日净流出为 1.93 亿美元，目前 IBIT 历史总净流入达 620.56 亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, erasing over 30% of its gains for the year, with a recent low of $93,778.6, indicating a significant market correction driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in investor sentiment [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, leading to a synchronized pressure on global risk assets [2]. - The liquidity in the market has decreased, exacerbating the downward trend, as many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen capital outflows, and long-term holders are cashing out profits [2][5]. - The psychological barrier of $100,000 has led to increased selling pressure, with institutional funds withdrawing and a lack of new liquidity entering the market [2][5]. Historical Context - Bitcoin has experienced multiple corrections since first surpassing $100,000, with significant drops occurring in early 2025, influenced by geopolitical concerns and security incidents [3]. - The current downturn is seen as a result of compounded factors, including macroeconomic risks, market structure issues, and investor psychology, similar to past market corrections [3][4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, Bitcoin's long-term potential remains, supported by increasing institutional participation and a healthier market structure [7]. - Analysts suggest that once a substantial interest rate cut cycle begins, Bitcoin could see renewed upward momentum as funds are reallocated across asset classes [7]. - The current liquidity constraints are viewed as a temporary effect from recent market shocks, with the potential for Bitcoin to find a new equilibrium and open up upward price movement in the future [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, is attributed to multiple pressures from macroeconomic expectations, funding conditions, and trading sentiment, leading to a significant drop in risk appetite among investors [4][5][6]. Market Performance - On November 17, Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,714, erasing all gains made in 2023, with a market capitalization loss of approximately $600 billion since its peak in October [1][3]. - Ethereum also experienced a decline, dropping below $3,200, with a 7-day decrease of 11.38% [3][4]. - Other cryptocurrencies, such as XRP, BNB, and Solana, also faced varying degrees of decline [3][4]. Market Pressures - The decline is not due to a single event but rather a combination of macroeconomic uncertainties, funding pressures, and weakened trading sentiment [4][5]. - There is a lack of consensus regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, leading to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts, which has negatively impacted risk assets [4]. - The Bitcoin spot ETF, which had previously shown strong performance, has seen continuous net outflows since September, contributing to the decline in market liquidity [4][5]. Trading Environment - The market is experiencing heightened vulnerability due to a significant liquidation event on October 11, which has left investors cautious [5][6]. - High leverage levels and fluctuating investor sentiment have made the market more susceptible to liquidity shocks [5][6]. - Recent data indicates that over 230,000 trading accounts were liquidated in a 24-hour period, amounting to over $1 billion, primarily affecting Bitcoin and major altcoin contracts [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term narrative for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks remains intact, but it requires time to establish itself as a mature asset class [8]. - Key variables influencing future market direction include the improvement of ETF channels, clarity in global regulatory environments, and sustained demand for on-chain finance and cross-border payments [8]. - Analysts suggest that while recent declines may correct excessive risk appetite and valuation deviations, the structural vulnerabilities of the crypto market compared to traditional financial assets still pose significant risks [8].

Group 1: Bitcoin - Bitcoin experienced a narrow fluctuation between $102,000 and $105,000, breaking through key resistance with a peak at $105,000 [1] - The current price is stable above $104,000, with limited short-term pullback potential and an upward channel intact, targeting $106,500 to $110,000 [1] - Institutional funds continue to flow in, with Bitcoin spot ETF management scale surpassing $60 billion, and long-term holders' supply ratio reaching 78% [1] Group 2: Ethereum - Ethereum followed Bitcoin's upward trend, breaking $3,600 with a daily increase of over 6%, targeting $3,670 to $3,700 [3] - Whale investors accumulated over 1.6 million ETH in October, indicating a potential accumulation phase, with historical data showing an average November increase of nearly 7% [3] - The number of active addresses on the Ethereum network has risen, suggesting increased user participation, while stable Gas fees indicate manageable network congestion [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently experiencing a high price range despite historical trends suggesting a downturn after halving events, attributed to the increasing influence of institutional investors [2][6][10]. Group 1: Bitcoin Halving and Market Trends - Bitcoin's issuance is designed to halve approximately every four years, with the latest halving occurring in April 2024, leading to a significant price increase of 70% over the following year and a half [4][6]. - Historical patterns indicate that after previous halvings, Bitcoin prices typically entered a prolonged decline within 1.5 years, but this trend has not materialized in the current cycle [6][11]. - The current market volatility for Bitcoin is notably low, with a volatility rate below 2%, contrasting sharply with previous halving periods where volatility exceeded 5% [6][10]. Group 2: Institutional Investor Influence - The rise of institutional investors is reshaping the Bitcoin market, with notable entities like Harvard University and UAE sovereign wealth funds increasing their Bitcoin holdings [7]. - The number of individual accounts holding between 0.01 BTC and 1 BTC has decreased by 2% over the past year, indicating a shift away from retail investors [7][8]. - Conversely, accounts holding between 100 BTC and 1000 BTC have increased by over 20%, reflecting a growing presence of institutional and corporate investors [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Daily Bitcoin issuance is approximately 450 BTC, while the daily inflow from Bitcoin ETFs is around $140 million, suggesting a strong demand from institutional investors [10]. - Options trading data indicates a bullish sentiment among investors, with a significant number of call options at strike prices of $120,000 and $140,000 [10]. - Despite the optimistic outlook, concerns remain regarding the potential impact of declining stock prices of companies heavily invested in Bitcoin, which could lead to reduced buying activity [10].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 4.9%, now standing at $3.67 trillion [1][2] - Total crypto trading volume is reported at $234 billion [1] Price Movements - Among the top 100 coins, 97 have experienced price declines over the past 24 hours [1][4] - Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 4.5%, currently trading at $105,732 [2][3] - Ethereum (ETH) has fallen by 6%, now priced at $3,764 [2][3] - Binance Coin (BNB) saw the highest drop at 10%, trading at $1,064 [3] - Dogecoin (DOGE) decreased by 9.3%, now at $0.179 [3] - The smallest decline was 4.3% for Tron (TRX), currently at $0.3079 [4] Significant Declines - Over 30 coins in the top 100 recorded double-digit percentage falls [4] - ChainOpera AI (COAI) experienced the largest drop of 22.8%, now at $17.71 [4] - Zcash (ZEC) decreased by 19.9%, now priced at $193 [4] Market Sentiment and Influences - The crypto market sentiment is currently in the fear zone, similar to levels last seen in April [2] - A wave of liquidations exceeding $19 billion has contributed to the recent downturn, influenced by US-China trade tensions [5] - Analysts suggest that a break below the key support level of $99,900 for Bitcoin could lead to a deeper correction [6] Bitcoin's Utility Perspective - There is a strong conviction in Bitcoin as a utility asset, not merely a store of value [7] - Despite recent price fluctuations, Bitcoin DeFi's Total Value Locked (TVL) has remained relatively stable [6][7]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $106,000, currently priced at $105,561.4 per coin [2] - Ethereum fell below $3,800, currently at $3,741.75, with a 24-hour decline of 6.32% [4] - Solana's price dropped below $180, currently at $177.7, reflecting a 24-hour decrease of 7.87% [5] - Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin and BNB also saw declines exceeding 9% [6] Market Data - The following table summarizes the price changes and market capitalization of key cryptocurrencies: - Bitcoin (BTC): $105,491, down 4.55%, market cap $71.05 billion, down 1.7% [7] - Ethereum (ETH): $3,755, down 6.2%, market cap $44.02 billion, down 5.8% [7] - Solana (SOL): $177.7, down 7.87%, market cap $9.18 billion, down 9.3% [7] - XRP: $2.237, down 7.14%, market cap $3.66 billion, down 9.7% [7] - BNB: $1,056, down 10.8%, market cap $1.88 billion, down 9.9% [7] - Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.1787, down 9.44%, market cap $1.81 billion, down 9.8% [7] Liquidation Events - Over the past 24 hours, more than 280,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.04 billion, including $820 million from long positions and $220 million from short positions [7] - The liquidation breakdown over different time frames is as follows: - 1 hour: $200 million total, $170 million long, $24.81 million short [8] - 4 hours: $340 million total, $300 million long, $43.92 million short [8] - 12 hours: $440 million total, $360 million long, $78.85 million short [8] - 24 hours: $1.04 billion total, $820 million long, $220 million short [8] Market Sentiment - The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market is attributed to rising risk aversion driven by turmoil in the U.S. credit market, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9] - Spot gold prices have surged to over $4,380 per ounce, indicating a flight to safety among investors [9] - Analysts from JPMorgan suggest that the recent significant pullback in the crypto market and large-scale liquidations may be driven by native cryptocurrency investors rather than institutional or retail ETF holders [9] - Data from SoSoValue indicates a net outflow of $536 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs on October 16, with no ETFs showing net inflows [9] Technical Analysis - Analysts highlight that $107,000 is a critical support level for Bitcoin; a clear break below this level could trigger further declines [10]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations, recently reaching a high of $126,080 before dropping to around $122,444, marking an overall increase of over 8% in October [1][3][4] - The price surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipation of a Bitcoin spot ETF, support from notable figures like Trump, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3][4] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has led to increased demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, contributing to its price rise [3][4] Price Performance - Bitcoin's price has shown volatility throughout 2025, starting the year around $95,000, dropping below $80,000 in April, and subsequently breaking through multiple key price levels [3] - The overall price increase from October 8, 2024, to October 8, 2025, is approximately 95.4% [3] Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is influenced by expectations of a shift towards global liquidity, with the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut seen as a catalyst for increased risk appetite [4] - The recent price movements of Bitcoin have shown a correlation with gold, as both are viewed as safe-haven assets during times of uncertainty [4] Liquidation Events - A significant number of liquidations occurred recently, with 170,631 individuals liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling approximately $645 million [4][5] - Despite the high volatility, the liquidation amounts are notably lower than in previous high-volatility periods, indicating that the current market dynamics are driven more by institutional investment rather than high-leverage speculation [5]

Core Insights - The total holdings of Bitcoin by U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached a historic milestone of 1.25 million Bitcoins as of August 17, 2025, marking the highest level ever recorded [1] Group 1 - The achievement signifies a significant development in the cryptocurrency investment landscape, reflecting growing institutional interest in Bitcoin [1] - The data indicates a trend of increasing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, which may influence market dynamics and investor behavior [1]