来源：徒步滚雪球 后续也会有反弹，但11月直到明年1月，乐观预计是宽幅震荡、悲观预计就直接熊一了，如果有反弹强化防守、强化防守才是需要做的事情。 这里如果股仓位还比较重，那就减仓，留出子弹应对后续的机会；如果仓位比较轻，那就可以从容等待了。 文/徒步君定龙骑牛 编审/悠悠 美美 政策呵护市场的意愿还是很强，周末发声、批量发了一堆科技相关ETF。 不过，市场运行还是有自己的规律，一些消息面只能干扰开盘那1~2个小时，趋势不会变。 当前一个好消息是，我们常用来判断市场情绪的指标——恐贪指数周五数值降到了7，代表市场非常恐慌，如果趋势不扭转，这里就是不错的左侧交易时 点。当前，建议等等看。 我们前两周也说了，进入11月，机构今年赚了不少，这个时候，就不愿意冒险，所以倾向于高低切，落袋为安。 叠加海外流动性收紧、AI分歧越来越大、美联储鹰派表态降息，直接导致全球资产周五宣泄性全部下跌。好在周五晚上反弹了一下。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "stability" is undervalued in volatile markets, as articulated by Zhang Yonghe of Guotai Fund, emphasizing that it is not conservative but rather an active management strategy aimed at optimizing the investment experience and ensuring long-term stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke the 4000-point barrier on October 28, marking the first time since August 18, 2015, but experienced slight fluctuations on the same day, indicating market volatility [4]. - The current market is characterized as a "structural market" rather than a typical bull market, with only 10% to 20% of stocks doubling in value since September 24, 2022, primarily in small-cap and AI-related sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on controlling portfolio volatility to achieve stability during market fluctuations, with a neutral overall position that has resulted in significantly lower drawdowns compared to the market average [6][7]. - Zhang Yonghe emphasizes macroeconomic research as a core element of investment decisions, aiming to identify turning points and opportunities based on economic trends, corporate earnings, and liquidity conditions [7][8]. Group 3: Portfolio Management - The investment approach incorporates a strong contrarian mindset, suggesting that opportunities often arise when assets are overlooked by the market [9]. - The strategy involves dynamic portfolio management, adjusting asset allocations based on market conditions and the relative value of assets, ensuring a balance between different investment styles [10][13]. Group 4: Enhancing Investor Experience - The ultimate goal of a stable investment strategy is to enhance the investor's experience by minimizing significant or prolonged losses and maintaining a smooth upward trajectory in returns [15]. - Zhang Yonghe's philosophy aligns with the idea that a positive investment experience is paramount, allowing investors to feel secure in their equity market investments without the stress of timing the market [15].

Overall Introduction - The book introduces market rules, asset allocation logic, and strategies for different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, while addressing practical issues faced by investors [4]. Core Views - The book proposes three dimensions to assess the market: policy, economy, and inflation, which are used to determine market conditions [7]. - Economic cycles are divided into six stages, each with corresponding asset preferences, ranging from bonds in the early slowdown to cash and commodities in the stagflation phase [11][12][13][39]. - Effective asset allocation strategies include the Permanent Portfolio, All Weather Portfolio, and Global Market Portfolio, emphasizing diversification and risk management [14][15][16]. Current Situation - Current policies are characterized as accommodative, with indicators such as M1 growth increasing from 0.39% in January to 5.96% in August [33]. - Economic recovery is weak, with industrial value-added growth declining from 7.7% to 5.2% [37]. - The market is likely in a transition between the late slowdown phase and the early recovery phase, suggesting a preference for small-cap growth stocks [39][40]. Investment Insights - Long-term asset allocation is crucial for sustained success, with diversified strategies proven to provide stable returns [44]. - A balanced stock-bond allocation is suitable for most investors, allowing for flexibility in extreme market conditions [45]. - Simplifying investment approaches and focusing on fundamental market principles can lead to better outcomes [47][48].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing popularity of wealth management products with equity investments, particularly those with a 20%-45% allocation to equity assets, as the stock market reaches new highs [1][2] - The investment philosophy of the equity investment manager at Ningyin Wealth Management emphasizes three principles: focusing on win rates, balanced diversification, and left-side trading [1][2][3] - The performance of various wealth management products managed by the company has been strong, with notable annualized returns, such as 8.5% for a mixed fund since its inception and 10.6% for a Hong Kong stock strategy product [1][2] Investment Strategy - The investment range for wealth management products is broader than that of public funds, allowing for more diverse asset allocation and risk management strategies [2] - The absolute return assessment model used by wealth management firms helps managers focus on the quality of listed companies and balanced asset allocation rather than short-term market trends [2][3] - The "left-side trading" principle is crucial in investment decisions, where the manager evaluates the growth prospects of equity assets before making buy or sell decisions [3] Market Trends - The article notes a shift in the dividend strategy landscape, with a focus on three categories: stable dividend stocks, cyclical dividend stocks, and individual stock exploration [4][5] - The stable dividend stocks provide consistent returns but may see a decline in yield as prices rise, while cyclical stocks are expected to benefit from economic recovery and increased cash flow [4] - The new policy allowing wealth management products to participate directly in IPOs and private placements is seen as a significant advantage, enhancing potential returns [6] Performance Metrics - The performance of the wealth management products has been commendable, with specific products achieving annualized returns of 6.8% since their inception [5] - The focus on maintaining a favorable ratio of annualized absolute return to maximum drawdown is emphasized as a key metric for attracting investors [3][5] - The company is committed to continuously optimizing asset allocation strategies based on market conditions to ensure sustained, robust returns for investors [3][6]

Core Insights - The equity market has shown significant improvement in the second half of the year, leading to a dilemma for fund managers regarding timing for investments [1] - There is a contrast between investors eager for strong fund performance and fund managers who are cautious due to risk management and valuation considerations [1][4] - New funds are beginning to establish positions, with some fund managers actively investing while others maintain a low exposure strategy [2][3] Fund Manager Strategies - Some newly established funds, like Guotai's quality core mixed fund, have already begun to build positions shortly after their inception, indicating a proactive approach [2] - Fund managers are divided in their strategies, with some opting for "right-side trading" to capitalize on market sentiment, while others prefer "left-side trading" to ensure a higher safety margin [6][8] - The cautious approach of some fund managers is influenced by the need to balance client expectations for quick profits against the risks of market valuation and potential corrections [4][5] Market Dynamics - The market has experienced a notable increase in investor enthusiasm, driven by factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and ongoing domestic policy support [7] - Despite the overall upward trend, there are concerns about potential market adjustments due to accumulated profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment presents opportunities for both aggressive and defensive investment strategies, depending on individual risk tolerance [8][9] Future Outlook - The market is currently positioned within historical average ranges, with stocks still showing high attractiveness for allocation [8] - Positive changes in corporate governance and asset quality are expected to gradually reflect in valuation systems, supporting a favorable long-term outlook [8] - Investment strategies should consider a balanced approach, focusing on core holdings while exploring growth sectors, particularly in technology and new energy [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the contrasting strategies of fund managers in the current market environment, where some are actively building positions while others remain cautious due to valuation concerns and market volatility [1][3][4] - The recent recovery in the A-share market has led to increased investor anxiety and expectations, with fund managers caught between the desire for returns and the need for risk control [1][3] - New funds have begun to establish positions, with examples such as the Guotai Quality Core Mixed Fund and the Jianxin Medical Innovation Stock Fund showing early gains shortly after their establishment [1][2] Group 2 - Fund managers are facing pressure from clients who expect quick profits, while they themselves are wary of market valuations and potential corrections, creating a tension between speed and safety in investment decisions [3][4] - Different fund managers exhibit varied attitudes towards building positions based on their investment strategies and market outlook, with some opting to slow down their pace to avoid buying at high levels [4][5] - The market's upward trend, influenced by factors such as interest rate expectations and policy support, has led to a surge in investor enthusiasm, but also raises concerns about potential adjustments and volatility [6][7] Group 3 - Fund managers who choose to enter the market are often guided by a "right-side trading" mindset, believing that the market sentiment has reversed and that the trend is clear, while those who remain cautious prefer a "left-side trading" approach, seeking higher safety margins [5][6] - The overall market is perceived to be in a historical average range, with equities still showing high allocation attractiveness, supported by improving corporate governance and asset quality [6][7] - Investment strategies suggested include a balanced approach of "core + satellite" allocations, focusing on diversified funds that can capture growth in emerging industries while managing risks [7]

Group 1 - The article introduces key investment terms to help beginners understand fund investment better [4][5][7][10][11][15][16][18]. - "Left-side trading" refers to buying undervalued assets before a price increase occurs [4][5]. - "Right-side trading" involves waiting for a clear upward trend before making a purchase, acknowledging potential hidden risks [7]. - "Maximum drawdown" measures the largest decline from a peak to a trough during a specific period, indicating the worst-case scenario for investors [8]. - "Sharpe ratio" assesses the risk-adjusted return of a fund, with a higher ratio indicating better performance relative to risk [10][11][12]. - "Bullish/Bearish" sentiment is influenced by new policies or technological breakthroughs, leading to increased buying or selling pressure [15][16]. - "Valuation percentile" helps determine whether a fund's current price is high or low compared to its historical valuation [18].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with a growth rate 0.6 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that while real estate sales area and prices are still declining, the overall real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with a reduction in inventory for four consecutive months [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting a stable and healthy development of the real estate market, urging local governments to implement precise policies [2] Real Estate Loan Statistics - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with an increase of 292.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, but the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous year, with an increase of 51 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] Market Trends and Company Performance - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with improved funding sources for real estate companies and ongoing debt restructuring efforts [2] - Companies like Sunac, R&F, and others are accelerating their debt restructuring processes, which is seen as a critical step for distressed firms [2] - China Jinmao reported a signed sales amount of 15.6 billion yuan in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.29% [5] Company-Specific Updates - Vanke Enterprises reported nearly 38 billion yuan in revenue and over 35 billion yuan in sales for Q1 2025, with a repayment rate exceeding 100% [4] - China Resources Land achieved a total contract sales amount of approximately 234.5 billion yuan in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [4] - Yuexiu Property's cumulative contract sales for the first half of 2025 amounted to approximately 61.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11% [4]

Group 1: Company Overview - Yuran Dairy's stock price has increased from 1.03 HKD to 3.92 HKD, indicating significant growth potential despite current valuations [1][3] - The company has a strong relationship with Yili, selling nearly all its products to them, which provides a stable revenue stream [3][4] - Yuran Dairy's high debt ratio is a concern, but its cash flow is robust due to guaranteed sales to Yili [4][8] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach for Yuran Dairy has shifted from a left-side trading strategy (buying on dips) to a right-side strategy (buying on upward trends) [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from an industry cleanup starting in the second half of 2024, which could improve profitability [2][8] - The current market conditions and capital inflow into the dairy sector have positively impacted Yuran Dairy's stock price [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The dairy farming industry is facing high levels of debt and losses, with 90% of companies in the sector currently unprofitable [8] - The cyclical nature of the pig farming industry is highlighted, suggesting that similar dynamics may affect dairy farming in the future [5][8] - The upcoming third quarter is critical for cash flow management in the dairy sector due to the need for feed purchases [7][8]