陈子扬，是市场上为数不多的90后周期基金经理，他从入行至今已亲历周期牛熊，对周期理解深刻且心 存敬畏。 2017年清华大学研究生毕业后，陈子扬加入长城基金研究部，最初聚焦钢铁、有色等周期行业，后拓展 覆盖到家电、建筑建材等领域，此后又进一步延伸至化工、交运等。在长城基金完善的投研培养体系 下，陈子扬得以在不同周期细分领域深耕积累，为后续投资实践筑牢基础。 刚入行时，他正赶上供给侧改革行情，钢铁板块盈利大幅扩张。但到了2018年、2019年，不少钢厂 借"产能置换"名义扩张产能，为行业后续下行埋下隐患。 "一个行业从高盈利状态，变成全行业亏损，只需要短短两三年。"这段经历让他深刻体会到周期的残 酷，也更关注产业景气变化的逻辑。 来源：微信公众号"老陈聊资管" 以有色金属为代表的周期板块，无疑是今年以来A股市场最亮眼的主线之一。在美元走弱和全球流动性 边际宽松的大背景下，周期板块依然被普遍认为具有大级别的中长期行情。 复盘过去30年A股投资风格的演变脉络，周期基金经理的市场供给与个体命运，也随市场周期的波动轮 替而起落浮沉。在国内经济高速增长的上世纪九十年代到本世纪初，以"煤飞色舞"为代表的周期行业大 放异彩，成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, drawing attention to the cyclical nature of the market. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metals may be in the later stages of their market cycle. The manager of HSBC Jintrust Fund, Zheng Xiaobing, believes that while there are risks, there are also numerous investment opportunities emerging from a cyclical perspective [1]. Group 1: Investment Framework - Zheng Xiaobing employs a four-dimensional investment framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trends, stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This comprehensive approach allows for proactive selection of undervalued opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [2][3]. - The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the global economic "water level," with specific insights into the economic conditions of the US, Europe, and China. Zheng anticipates short-term downward pressure on the US economy while noting China's deepening economic structural transformation [2]. Group 2: Stock Selection and Market Sentiment - Stock selection is central to Zheng's strategy, emphasizing sufficient safety margins and growth potential. He sets clear price tolerance lines to manage downside risks while valuing companies with strong earnings elasticity. This approach leads to a concentrated portfolio in his managed funds [3]. - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in determining buy/sell points. Zheng aims to buy when market attention is low and sell before market euphoria peaks, reflecting his investment philosophy of "cognitive transformation" [3]. Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - Zheng Xiaobing's investment style is characterized by early positioning in undervalued sectors, as demonstrated by his strategic moves in the innovative drug sector and gold stocks. He capitalized on low valuations in 2023 and adjusted his positions as market conditions evolved [4][5]. - Current trends in colored metals are viewed with caution, as Zheng identifies two phases of gold price increases: initially driven by monetary safe-haven attributes and more recently by expectations of global liquidity easing. He warns that some commodity prices may have deviated significantly from their fundamentals, suggesting a likely mean reversion [5]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Zheng is optimistic about the aviation sector, citing a fundamental shift in demand structure towards personal travel, which is expected to remain resilient. Supply constraints and potential cost declines further support his positive outlook on aviation stocks [7]. - The brand consumption and manufacturing sectors are also on Zheng's radar, as many domestic brands have improved in governance and efficiency. He anticipates a recovery in inventory cycles for overseas brands, benefiting Chinese supply chains and brands poised for global expansion [7]. - Zheng views the Hong Kong stock market as a significant value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to leverage AI technology in a rapidly evolving landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance post-Spring Festival, with multiple sectors showing structural opportunities amid economic recovery and industrial upgrades [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Analysts from various public funds expect continued inflow of incremental capital into the A-share market, supported by manufacturing investment and capital expenditure from listed companies [1] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with long-term planning and policy encouraging sustained capital market participation, leading to upward market momentum [2] - The market is likely to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, driven by cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI-related sectors [2] Group 2: Sector Focus - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations for significant growth in AI applications and revenue generation from major players like OpenAI and Google [3] - The semiconductor industry is rapidly evolving, driven by AI developments, with a focus on individual stock performance and industry trends [4] - The consumer sector is at a critical turning point, with anticipated investment opportunities emerging as consumer demand shifts towards high-end and service consumption [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Public funds are emphasizing cyclical industries, with a narrative shift expected in 2026 as policy-driven changes and global supply chain restructuring elevate Chinese manufacturing leaders to a position of pricing power [4] - Investment strategies should focus on technology sectors, including semiconductors and AI, as well as industries related to external demand such as chemicals and machinery [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the resignation of Fu Youxing, the Deputy General Manager and Co-Chief Investment Officer of GF Fund, due to work reasons, managing two products with a total scale of 10.276 billion yuan, making him one of the few fund managers in the public offering industry with over 10 billion yuan in assets under management [2][3] Group 2 - Fu Youxing has over 13 years of experience in fund management, having joined the industry in 2002 and worked in various roles before becoming Deputy General Manager at GF Fund in 2006. His investment style focuses on fundamental research and companies with sustainable growth and strong competitiveness, achieving a best-term return of 187.2% on the funds he managed [3] Group 3 - The resignation of a billion-yuan fund manager from an executive position is not uncommon in the public offering industry, with two potential paths: returning to frontline investment research or gradually leaving the managed funds for other career opportunities. The future direction of Fu Youxing's career remains uncertain [3] Group 4 - GF Fund has been actively introducing external talent in the active equity investment sector, with notable recent hires including Wu Chenggen from Zhonggeng Fund, who has a five-year return of 166% on his previous fund, and Zhou Zhishuo from Jianxin Fund, who currently manages three products with a total scale of 17.8 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - The talent layout at GF Fund is evolving from a focus on track-type funds to a more diversified strategy, with managers specializing in absolute returns and cycle investments joining the team. The company currently has over 200 research and investment personnel and eight equity investment teams, with an average of over 10 years of experience among investment managers [4]

2026年开年首月，A股市场结构性行情特征凸显，其中有色金属板块无疑是今年以来A股市场最受关注 的行业之一。对此，深耕周期赛道八年的长城基金基金经理陈子扬保持冷静，在景气与估值的平衡中寻 找优质标的。 陈子扬2017年研究生毕业后便加入长城基金研究部，自此扎根周期领域，构建自己的"能力圈"。2023年 8月，他正式开启基金管理生涯，目前共管理3只产品，均为偏周期风格。谈及对周期的理解，陈子扬强 调，短期波动只是噪音，对投资结果没有太多积极影响，长期投资需要耐心与理性，不能追逐短期弹 性，要敬畏周期规律，在低估时布局，在高估时离场，才能在周期波动中实现长期盈利。 对于周期行业的投资机会，陈子扬表示，今年的思路之一，是在周期板块中寻找相对估值洼地的机会， 他对于铜、铝持阶段性偏谨慎态度，但是对于黄金、小金属偏乐观。"预计今年美国可能还会继续降 息，在相对动荡的地缘环境中各国央行还在继续购金，驱动黄金上涨的动力还在。而相较于判断黄金价 格的短期波动，黄金股的投资价值更值得看好，从当前金价水平看，相关公司的自由现金流处于较好的 状态。"陈子扬分析称。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sector is entering a new allocation window due to enhanced macroeconomic recovery expectations and stabilization of global commodity prices, with Penghua Fund offering a comprehensive ETF product matrix covering key cyclical sectors such as energy, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 1: ETF Product Matrix - Penghua Fund has launched four cyclical ETFs, forming a comprehensive layout of "oil + non-ferrous + industrial non-ferrous + chemicals," catering to diverse investor allocation needs [1][2] - The core product, the Oil ETF Penghua (159697), tracks the National Index of Oil and Gas, covering leading companies like China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, effectively capturing oil and gas industry cyclical opportunities [2] Group 2: Fund Performance and Market Recognition - As of February 5, 2026, Penghua's cyclical ETFs have shown significant net inflows, with the Oil ETF experiencing explosive growth from 207 million to 1.733 billion, reflecting a growth of over 700% [3] - The Chemical ETF (159870) has surpassed 33 billion, leading its category, while the Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) has seen stable inflows, with a net inflow of 305 million and a net return of 27.32% over the past 20 trading days [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Penghua's cyclical ETFs possess significant index scarcity and first-mover advantages, creating differentiated competitive barriers [4] - The Oil ETF is the largest and earliest established among only three ETFs tracking the National Index of Oil and Gas, allowing for more precise tracking of industry performance [4][5] Group 4: Management and Investment Strategy - The four ETFs are managed by Yan Dong, a fund manager with 16 years of experience, who emphasizes the importance of "high-low switching" investment opportunities for 2026 [6] - The chemical sector is viewed as relatively undervalued, with potential for recovery driven by PPI improvements and ongoing "anti-involution" policies [6][7] Group 5: Institutional Consensus - Multiple institutions are optimistic about cyclical stock investment opportunities in 2026, with expectations of oil price rebounds due to geopolitical tensions and demand recovery [8] - The non-ferrous sector is anticipated to enter a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors, highlighting the investment value of non-ferrous mining companies [8] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The Penghua Fund's cyclical ETF matrix has become a core tool for investors looking to allocate in commodities and upstream resources, with the Oil ETF being particularly noteworthy due to its explosive growth and unique index coverage [9]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals is significant, as both belong to the cyclical sector, and their market movements are interconnected [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Relationship - Non-ferrous metals focus on extracting metals from ores, while petrochemicals convert crude oil into various products, indicating a close relationship in the industrial chain [1]. - Non-ferrous metals are considered the "vanguard" of cyclical sectors, reacting quickly to changes in global monetary policy and economic recovery expectations, while petrochemicals tend to respond more slowly [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The non-ferrous metal sector is sensitive to commodity prices, with major stocks like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum directly linked to prices of copper and gold [3]. - The petrochemical sector is more complex, with its performance influenced by both international oil prices and domestic supply-demand dynamics in chemical products [4]. Group 3: Economic Recovery Cycle - A typical economic recovery cycle begins with liquidity easing, boosting gold-related companies, followed by increased demand for industrial metals like copper, which then leads to higher demand for petrochemical products [9]. - The market often views the stock performance of non-ferrous metal companies as a precursor to future demand for petrochemical products [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Petrochemicals - As of 2026, there is speculation that the petrochemical sector may experience a turnaround, with oil prices stabilizing around $55-$60 per barrel, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [10]. - Policies aimed at controlling new refining capacity and eliminating outdated production are expected to enhance the market position of leading petrochemical companies [10]. - Demand for high-end chemical materials is anticipated to grow, driven by traditional industries and emerging sectors like new energy and AI, suggesting a shift from a purely cyclical to a growth-oriented perspective for the petrochemical industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 is expected to exhibit structural characteristics driven by leading companies and fundamentals, focusing on opportunities in cycles, technology, and pharmaceuticals, as well as the theme of companies going global [1][3]. Fundamental Drivers - The current global economic landscape is undergoing significant adjustments, with a focus on high-quality development in the domestic economy. The selection of stocks should meet four core criteria: potential returns, competitive barriers, short-term demand changes leading to growth, and significant long-term growth potential [2][3]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to show a pronounced concentration of leading companies and fundamental-driven characteristics. This will manifest in three dimensions: a highly structured market favoring a few companies with real and sustainable performance; leading companies with strong barriers and growth; and a focus on fundamentals where market pricing will closely align with companies' growth capabilities over the next one to two years [3]. Opportunities in Segmented Fields - The investment team is exploring opportunities in segmented fields, particularly in cycles, technology, and pharmaceuticals. The focus on cycles is driven by the bottoming out of corporate capacity and policies promoting absolute capacity clearance, with demand supported by various factors including potential interest rate cuts overseas and strong infrastructure needs in emerging markets [4][6]. Specific Focus Areas - In the cyclical sector, four key areas are highlighted: non-ferrous metals, aluminum, lithium carbonate driven by energy storage, and chemical products with improving supply-demand dynamics. The technology sector remains a primary focus, with strong investment interest and clear demand signals emerging [6][7]. Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is centered on innovation and global expansion, with significant potential in the innovative drug sector, particularly in dual-antibody and small nucleic acid therapies. The medical device sector is also gaining attention, especially in surgical robotics and AI applications in healthcare [7][8]. Global Expansion Strategy - The theme of "going global" is emphasized, focusing on companies capable of moving into high-value sectors and possessing brand strength and global competitiveness. Key selection criteria include capacity for overseas production, technological and brand capabilities, and cultural outreach [8][9]. Performance of Companies with Global Revenue - Companies with a higher proportion of overseas revenue tend to show greater resilience and growth potential. As the global manufacturing sector may enter a replenishment cycle, Chinese manufacturing firms with global competitive advantages are expected to expand their market share through international ventures [9].

Group 1 - The core investment strategies can be summarized into three main methods: earning through foresight, exploiting market panic, and capitalizing on cycles [3][4]. - Earning through foresight involves identifying companies with strong future potential early on, allowing for investment before their value is realized [3]. - Exploiting market panic refers to buying undervalued stocks during market downturns, particularly blue-chip stocks and fundamentally sound turnaround companies, which can yield significant returns when the market recovers [4]. Group 2 - The cycle-based strategy focuses on the cyclical nature of commodities, where buying during industry downturns and selling during peaks can lead to consistent profits [4]. - The three strategies require different attributes: foresight relies on cognitive and logical reasoning, panic exploitation depends on conviction and independence, while cycle investing demands patience and perseverance [5]. - The principles of investment are closely aligned with broader life principles, suggesting that the approach to investing mirrors the approach to personal conduct [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices driven by global central bank purchases and geopolitical shifts, highlighting the investment journey of Sichuan Gold and the strategic foresight of Leishi Investment in capitalizing on this trend [3][4]. Group 1: Market Context and Investment Strategy - As of now, international gold prices remain at historical highs, surpassing market expectations due to ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - Sichuan Gold (001337.SZ) made a remarkable debut on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in March 2023, with a first-day surge of 44%, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion [3]. - Leishi Investment was an early and steadfast institutional investor in Sichuan Gold, entering the market during a time of industry divergence in 2021, thus securing core stakes [4][5]. Group 2: Macro Analysis and Investment Rationale - Understanding the macroeconomic context of 2020 is crucial for grasping Leishi's investment decisions, as gold was not considered an attractive asset during that period [5]. - Leishi identified two pivotal turning points: the reconstruction of geopolitical order and the inevitable debt cycle, leading to a conclusion that gold, priced in dollars, would enter a sustained upward cycle [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Methodology and Risk Management - Leishi's approach involved filtering out market noise to focus on the fundamental belief that gold prices would rise, supported by extensive research and investment in gold ETFs [7]. - The firm emphasized the importance of understanding the exit strategy in mining investments, ensuring that they had a clear path to an IPO for Sichuan Gold, which was validated through thorough due diligence [7][8]. Group 4: Cognitive Framework and Market Insights - Leishi's investment philosophy is rooted in a three-tier cognitive framework, distinguishing between mere logical understanding and deeper insights into market dynamics [9][10]. - The firm believes that true investment success comes from recognizing the right conditions and applying the appropriate strategies, rather than relying solely on luck [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - Leishi Investment is now applying its disciplined approach to the AI sector, particularly in enhancing China's manufacturing capabilities, which is seen as a unique advantage [12][13]. - The firm aims to shift focus from crowded AI valuations to long-term value creation in manufacturing, leveraging AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency [12][13].