在黄金的投资上，就充分体现了郭昀松的周期框架。在宏观周期上，郭昀松看到美国政府杠杆率达到二 战后最高水平，使得美债的配置价值进入下行周期。越来越多全球投资者开始用黄金替代美债。在货币 周期中，黄金作为抗通胀的资产，过去40年涨幅是远低于美联储资产负债表的扩张程度。 在商品投资中，许多人会只盯着价格的波动，而郭昀松出了"面积"的概念。价格在高位持续的时间越 长，对企业的意义越大。即面积=时间X价格。从这个角度出发，郭昀松更关注价格能站得住的大宗商 品。不仅在需求端有增长，更重要是供给侧受限，使得商品价格的高位能持续更长时间。结构性的需求 增长，可能会带动铜和铝的价格进一步走高，并同时体现在企业的盈利端。 来源：点拾投资 导读：在即将告别2025年之际，我们也开始对各类资产的表现做一个整体回顾。在这个过程中，我们发 现黄金年初至今涨幅超60%，在各类资产中表现突出。事实上，今年COMEX黄金价格涨幅，是1979年 以来最高。（数据来源：Wind，截至日期：2025年12月12日） 在很长一段时间，周期股是被许多人放弃的"渣男行业"。周期股的波动很大，但是需求又随着城镇化见 顶进入下行周期，以至于许多投资者都不愿意 ...

把 握 大 贝 塔 比 个 股 微 操 更 重 要 理 英 雄 星 s and 导读：在即将告别2025年之际，我们也开始对各类资产的表现做一个整体回顾。在这个过程中，我们发现黄金年初至今涨幅超60%，在各类资产中 表现突出。事实上，今年COMEX黄金价格涨幅，是1979年以来最高。 （数据来源：Wind，截至日期：2025年12月12日） 在很长一段时间，周期股是被许多人放弃的"渣男行业"。周期股的波动很大，但是需求又随着城镇化见顶进入下行周期，以至于许多投资者都不愿 意做周期股的投资。 中银基金的郭昀松是市场上长期聚焦在周期领域的基金经理之一。 以他管理时间最长的中银稳进策略混合A为例，从2023年11月14日接手管理产 品至今年9月末，组合中始终重仓黄金。到了2024年9月19日，郭昀松又新发了市场上少有的聚焦周期领域的基金：中银周期优选混合发起。基金 定期报告显示，截至2025年9月末，这两只产品均取得了超额收益，中银稳进策略A过去一年净值增长率28.39%（同期业绩比较基准收益率 9.72%），中银周期优选A过去一年净值增长率41.38%（同期业绩比较基准 收益率14.09%）。 （风险提示：前十大 ...

三大指数涨幅很好，不过很多股民对牛市的体感不好，今年主要是2条主线拉升了，与场内的股民关系很有限，一个是汇金、险资它们拉升红利股，一个是 机构、量化抱团炒作科技权重股。 2025年，已经余额不足了，只有10多个交易日就结束全年的行情了。无论是亏损还是盈利都要翻篇了，一个很魔幻的一年。 事实上，科技指数涨幅很好，不过参与科技的股民盈利并不佳，很多科技股没有上涨，只是指数好看，从年初到年末都只是炒作AI硬件…… A股跨年行情来了 无论您信或者不信，跨年行情都要开启了，目前的市场已经没有什么多聊的地方，最后的10多个交易日，学会享受行情就行。 仓位，不要太激进了，可以开始谋划2026年的布局了，今年涨幅好的未必明年继续涨，反之亦然。不过，像白酒这种纯纯的大消费筹码大概率要等到熊市才 有行情了。 接下来，关键的行业就是证券、地产走势了，如果地产没有复苏，传统的消费蓝筹股都不会有行情，不接受反驳。 一天天刺激内需，实际上效果很有限，只有房地产复苏了，大家收入增加才会有消费复苏。用李迅雷的观点是AI取代不了房地产，毕竟太多行业依赖它 了，太多人依赖它创造的就业了。 AI只能让少数人变富，满足少数人的狂欢，因为科技行业是有 ...

Core Insights - The current focus for many investors is whether it is the right time to bottom-fish in the high-end liquor market, particularly in the baijiu sector [1][2] Demand Cycle - The demand cycle for high-end liquor is currently in a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic slowdowns and a shrinking high-end dining sector [9][11] Inventory Cycle - The industry is still in the process of destocking, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye yet to complete their inventory optimization [8][9] Valuation Cycle - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the baijiu sector has decreased from previously high levels of 60-70 times to around 20 times, indicating a return to normal valuation but not yet reaching a clearly undervalued state [9][10] Case Study: Yanghe - Yanghe's recent performance serves as a cautionary example; despite a high dividend yield and low P/E ratio attracting investors, its earnings significantly declined, reflecting ongoing issues in demand and inventory adjustments within the industry [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resurgence of active equity funds in the A-share market, highlighting their significant outperformance compared to broad market indices in 2023, with the active equity index achieving a return of 35.96% [4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 Index and the CSI 800 Index have recorded increases of 17.94% and 20.87%, respectively, while the average return of active equity funds has significantly outperformed these indices [4]. - The active equity fund market faced challenges from 2022 to 2024, with a notable shift towards index funds, which saw their scale exceed 3.7 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Analysis - Historical data shows that the proportion of active equity funds outperforming their benchmarks has varied, with a notable decline in performance from 2022 to 2024 due to a defensive market style [5][8]. - Despite recent underperformance, over longer periods (5, 10, and 15 years), active equity funds have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices, indicating their long-term value [10][11]. Group 3: Active Management Advantages - Active equity funds have demonstrated their ability to generate excess returns by capitalizing on specific industry opportunities, contrasting with the U.S. market where returns are concentrated among a few tech giants [20][19]. - The article highlights that the Chinese market offers diverse and rotating industry opportunities, which have historically provided fertile ground for active equity funds to achieve significant returns [20][21]. Group 4: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - In Q3 2023, all active equity funds from 165 public fund companies reported positive returns, with an average return of 25.93%, surpassing the CSI 300's 17.90% increase [26]. - The article suggests that investors should leverage the active management characteristics of these funds, trusting in the expertise of skilled fund managers while maintaining a rational approach to market fluctuations [27].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3600, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 30% [2] - Zijin Mining, a major player in the gold sector, has seen its stock rise by 61.44% year-to-date as of September 2 [3] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 167.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 23.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 54.4% respectively [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 5.847 billion yuan, which accounts for 25.1% of its net profit for the first half of the year [5] - Gold revenue is approaching that of copper, with gold sales reaching 2.645 billion yuan, nearly matching copper sales of 2.726 billion yuan [5] Operational Highlights - Zijin Mining's overall gross margin for mineral products increased by 3 percentage points to 60.23% [6] - The company produced 570,000 tons of copper, a year-on-year increase of over 9%, and 41 tons of gold, a 16% increase [6] - The contribution of gold to the company's gross profit rose from 30% in 2024 to 38.6% in 2025, nearly equal to copper's contribution of 38.5% [6] Market Position and Institutional Interest - Zijin Mining ranked first among global gold companies and fourth among global metal mining companies in the 2025 Forbes Global List [4] - As of June 30, 2025, Zijin Mining (A-shares) was held by 1,233 funds, while its H-shares were held by 117 funds [11] - Institutional interest remains strong, with significant increases in holdings from various funds, indicating a preference for Zijin Mining among active fund managers [8][12] Fund Manager Activities - Notable fund managers, such as Deng Xiaofeng and Zhou Weiwen, have significantly increased their positions in Zijin Mining, reflecting confidence in the company's prospects [13][19] - Deng Xiaofeng's funds increased their holdings by 9 million shares, while Zhou Weiwen's funds have consistently added to their positions over multiple quarters [13][22] - Wu Guoqing has maintained a long-term position in Zijin Mining, emphasizing its importance in his portfolio [50][56]

Group 1 - Zhang Teng, the fund manager of Yinhua Ruihe, adopts a unique energy perspective and macro framework for cyclical investment, distinguishing himself from traditional value and growth investors [1][2] - His investment philosophy emphasizes capturing structural opportunities through a deep understanding of energy dynamics and macroeconomic slow variables, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality and anti-involution [1][6] - Zhang's approach to cyclical stocks focuses on underlying variables rather than merely following commodity prices, aiming to identify undervalued elastic factors at the intersection of industry logic and macro changes [1][3] Group 2 - Zhang Teng's investment framework is influenced by Taleb's "anti-fragile" theory, which emphasizes the importance of macro awareness and diversified investments to achieve long-term stability [4][5] - His strategy includes maintaining a diversified portfolio across five main sectors to mitigate risks while focusing on core driving factors of different assets [5][6] - The "anti-fragile" framework has evolved to enable the identification of opportunities during extreme market fluctuations, allowing for dynamic optimization of investment portfolios [6][8] Group 3 - In the context of the "anti-involution" policy, Zhang Teng identifies significant investment opportunities in the changing supply-demand dynamics of the non-ferrous and chemical sectors, rather than in highly discussed areas like photovoltaics [7][8] - He emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with steep supply curves and high cost differentials, particularly in strategic resources like rare earths, which are expected to experience value reassessment [7][8] - Zhang's macro perspective includes viewing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle as a key slow variable that will benefit the non-ferrous sector, with different metals responding at varying paces [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the performance and investment strategy of the Southern Cycle Preferred Mixed Fund for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a recovery in the market after initial declines due to external factors, with a focus on asset allocation and sector selection to achieve long-term stable growth. Fund Product Overview - Fund Name: Southern Cycle Preferred Mixed Fund - Fund Code: 021711 - Fund Type: Contractual open-end fund - Total Fund Shares at Period End: 22,672,903.02 shares - Investment Objective: Achieve long-term stable appreciation of fund assets through professional research and analysis while controlling portfolio risk and maintaining good liquidity [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The fund employs a cyclical perspective to select sectors based on the economic cycle, macroeconomic policies, market interest rates, and inflation data. Key strategies include asset allocation, stock investment, bond investment, financial derivatives, and asset-backed securities [2][3]. Performance Metrics - The fund's A share net value at the end of the reporting period was 1.0408 RMB, with a net value growth rate of 4.71%, outperforming the benchmark growth rate of 0.47%. The C share net value was 1.0358 RMB, with a growth rate of 4.54% [10][9]. Market Overview - The market exhibited a "V" shape recovery in Q2 2025, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.25%, and the ChiNext index increasing by 2.34%. The report notes a significant sector performance divergence, with industries like military, banking, and telecommunications seeing gains over 10%, while traditional sectors like food and beverage faced declines [9][10]. Investment Composition - As of the end of the reporting period, the fund's asset allocation included 80.60% in stocks (19,932,779.81 RMB) and 4.87% in bonds (1,205,288.88 RMB). The fund also had a 19.04% exposure to Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect mechanism [12][13]. Manager's Report - The fund manager emphasized compliance with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring that the fund's operations were legal and did not harm the interests of fund shareholders. The report also highlighted the absence of abnormal trading activities during the reporting period [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment principles, focusing on valuation, industry trends, and the cyclical nature of markets to identify potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][5]. Group 1: First Principles of Investment - The essence of investment is buying companies, with valuation being the core principle. If a company's future profit growth is realized, the stock price will align with expectations [3]. - A case study of "Siyuan Electric" illustrates that a stock can appreciate significantly while maintaining a reasonable valuation, demonstrating the power of matching valuation with performance [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends vs. Static Valuation - Industry trends can outweigh short-term valuation metrics. For instance, during the pig cycle in 2019, related stocks surged despite high static valuations, as the industry trend drove growth [4]. - The example of CATL shows that high valuations can be justified during periods of explosive growth, indicating that potential future industry trends can create significant investment opportunities [4]. Group 3: Leveraging Cycles - Cycles are a critical factor in investment, influenced by external factors like U.S. interest rate changes and the cyclical nature of A-shares [5]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector's decline since 2021 highlights how external cycles can impact stock performance, suggesting that a future U.S. rate cut could lead to significant gains in this sector [5]. Group 4: Business Models and Investment Aesthetics - Successful investments often involve a combination of the discussed principles, but prioritizing a solid business model is crucial. A sustainable business model ensures long-term growth and resilience against market fluctuations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding the underlying business model, as it determines a company's ability to create value over time, contrasting with those reliant on short-term market trends [6]. Group 5: Broader Understanding and Investment Philosophy - Developing an aesthetic sense in investment is essential, akin to appreciating art. This involves recognizing which stocks have lasting value versus those that are fleeting [7]. - Insights gained from life experiences can enhance investment judgment, helping investors maintain focus on long-term holdings amidst market volatility [7].

Core Viewpoint - The interview with Wang Mingxu, a fund manager at Guangfa Fund, highlights his unique investment philosophy and approach, emphasizing the importance of patience and understanding market dynamics over the past five years [1][17]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Wang Mingxu believes that investment requires both self-awareness and an understanding of the broader market, stating that patience and persistence are key to navigating market changes [1][18]. - His investment style is characterized by a balanced approach, allowing him to identify opportunities across various market conditions while avoiding significant risks [9][11]. - Wang's investment philosophy is influenced by Charlie Munger's ideas, focusing on integrating diverse knowledge rather than adhering to rigid methodologies [10][11]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Wang's longest-managed fund, Guangfa Inner Demand Growth A, has achieved a cumulative return of over 136% and an annualized return of 13.84% as of May 30 [4]. - His funds consistently rank among the top in their category over a three-year period, reflecting a long-term performance strategy akin to a marathon runner [3][4]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Strategy - Wang has maintained a significant allocation of 15-30% in bank stocks within his portfolio, which he views as effective assets despite conventional wisdom suggesting otherwise [5][6]. - Over the past four years, the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by a cumulative 30 percentage points, validating Wang's investment strategy [6]. - His investment coverage spans various sectors, including food and beverage, retail, banking, real estate, electricity, pharmaceuticals, and new energy, demonstrating a broad industry understanding [13][36]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Adjustments - Wang expresses optimism about the mid-term equity market, indicating a shift in his portfolio from defensive to more aggressive positions in sectors like real estate and brokerage [55][56]. - He strategically adjusted his holdings in 2021, moving away from consumer stocks to sectors he believed offered better value, such as banking and energy [25][26]. - Wang's approach to cyclical industries is rooted in supply-demand dynamics, which he considers crucial for making informed investment decisions [44][46].