Report Overview - **Report Name**: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - **Update Time**: July 18, 2025, 08:15 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data is gradually confirming this. The medium - to long - term outlook for crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, though less intense than before. The focus of crude oil trading may return to supply and demand [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain, with the possibility of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the impact on oil prices may be limited if the expectation of blocked shipping lanes does not return [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market. The implementation of high tariffs may lead to bearish macro - side expectations, higher inflation in the US, and make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On July 1, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 65.53 dollars/barrel, up 0.56 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and up 0.52 dollars (0.80%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.28 dollars/barrel, up 0.65 dollars (0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.54 dollars (-0.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-2.99%) from the previous day and down 3.08 dollars (-41.84%) from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 2.53 dollars/barrel, down 0.22 dollars (-8.06%) from the previous day and down 2.02 dollars (-44.37%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 68.35 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.53%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 68.17 dollars/barrel, down 1.05 dollars (-1.52%) from the previous week. Oman was at 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 1.40 dollars (2.06%) from the previous week. Dubai was at 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.95 dollars (1.40%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 7036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts were at 591.10 million barrels, up 188.20 million barrels (46.71%) from the previous week. US strategic petroleum reserves were at 402.53 million barrels, up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was at 415.11 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - E3 foreign ministers and the EU High Representative called on Iran to return to diplomatic channels to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear agreement by the end of summer, or face renewed UN sanctions [3]. - A US assessment found that only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities attacked last month was largely destroyed, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3]. - Angola plans to increase its oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - In May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings. Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion dollars, the UK's were 0.8094 trillion dollars, and China's were 0.7563 trillion dollars [4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7% [4]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe rates should remain unchanged due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, while others support a 25 - basis - point cut [4][5][6]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations - In the medium term, the market is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance levels around 65 and 68.3 dollars/barrel respectively. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 66.5 dollars/barrel resistance level for US crude oil [2]. - The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, choose the right timing, or use out - of - the - money put options to avoid short - term bullish shocks [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in July, with over 50% expectation of a rate cut in September. The baseline assumption is a 25BP rate cut in Q4, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies, US Treasuries, and geopolitics [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with Saudi Arabia's exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day in June. The oil market may return to supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term attention should be paid to OPEC policies and reciprocal tariffs [2]. - The oil price is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Traders are advised to short at high prices but wait for the right opportunity. If there is a short - term downward break, short - term follow - up can be considered, with stop - loss in mind [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Futures - On July 1st, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from last week. WTI was at $65.53/barrel, up $0.56 (0.86%) from the previous day and up $0.52 (0.80%) from last week. Brent was at $67.28/barrel, up $0.65 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-0.80%) from last week [2]. Inner - Outer Spreads - Sc - WTI was at $4.28/barrel, down $0.13 (-2.99%) from the previous day and down $3.08 (-41.84%) from last week. Sc - Brent was at $2.53/barrel, down $0.22 (-8.06%) from the previous day and down $2.02 (-44.37%) from last week. Brent - WTI was at $1.75/barrel, down $1.01 (-36.48%) from the previous day and down $2.80 (-61.57%) from last week [2]. Sc Month - Spreads - Sc_C1 - C2 was at 6.60 yuan/barrel, up 6.70 yuan (6700.00%) from the previous day and up 4.30 yuan (186.96%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at 22.10 yuan/barrel, up 4.00 yuan (22.10%) from the previous day and down 13.40 yuan (-37.75%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C13 was at 25.50 yuan/barrel, up 1.40 yuan (5.81%) from the previous day and down 28.40 yuan (-52.69%) from last week [2]. Crude Oil Spot - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $68.35/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.36 (0.53%) from last week. Brent DTD was at $68.17/barrel, with no change from the previous day and down $1.05 (-1.52%) from last week. Oman was at $69.20/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $1.40 (2.06%) from last week. Dubai was at $68.75/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.95 (1.40%) from last week. ESPO was at $62.76/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.49 (0.79%) from last week [2]. Premiums and Discounts - OPEC's basket of premiums and discounts was at $1.07/barrel, down $0.47 (-30.52%) from the previous day and up $0.14 (15.05%) from last week. Brent DTD premiums and discounts was at $0.89/barrel, down $1.68 (-65.37%) from the previous day and down $1.38 (-281.63%) from last week. Oman premiums and discounts was at $1.92/barrel, up $2.02 (2020.00%) from the previous day and down $3.94 (-195.05%) from last week. Dubai premiums and discounts was at $1.47/barrel, up $2.80 (210.53%) from the previous day and down $1.31 (-47.12%) from last week. ESPO premiums and discounts was at -$4.52/barrel, down $2.89 (-177.30%) from the previous day and down $18.82 (-131.60%) from last week [2]. Product Spot - Diesel in East China was at 7,036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from last week. Gasoline in East China was at 8,078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from last week [2]. Spread References - Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.089817, down 0.19 (-1.33%) from the previous day and down 0.21 (-1.48%) from last week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 16.175775, down 0.22 (-1.35%) from the previous day and down 0.14 (-0.87%) from last week. Diesel - gasoline (East China) was -1,041.73 yuan/ton, up 9.91 yuan (-0.94%) from the previous day and up 3.73 yuan (-0.36%) from last week [2]. Sc Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts were 5.911 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 1.882 million barrels (46.71%) from last week. The strategic petroleum reserve was 402.53 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from last week [2]. EIA US (Weekly) - Commercial crude oil was 415.11 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from last week. Cushing crude oil was 22.22 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 0.46 million barrels (-2.05%) from last week. Gasoline was 227.94 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 2.08 million barrels (-0.90%) from last week. Distillates were 105.33 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 4.07 million barrels (-3.72%) from last week [2]. CFTC Positions (Weekly) - Non - commercial net positions were 233,000 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 19,000 contracts (0.83%) from last week. Commercial net positions were -270,500 contracts, with no change from the previous day and down 115,000 contracts (4.44%) from last week. Non - reported net positions were 37,600 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 9,600 contracts (34.17%) from last week [2]. Industry News - Trump said Israel agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire with Hamas, and he will meet Netanyahu on the 7th to discuss the Gaza situation and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines on ships in the Persian Gulf, preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Houthi rebels attacked Israeli airports and cities with missiles and drones on July 1st [4]. - US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28th, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.417 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 1.92 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 3.458 million barrels [5]. - Mexico's oil production is dropping to the level of the late 1970s, and its June exports dropped to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day [5]. - Israel's military action assessment report showed that its multi - layer air defense system intercepted 86% of Iranian ballistic missiles and over 99% of drones [6]. - Trump said he won't extend the trade negotiation deadline on July 9th and is skeptical about reaching an agreement with Japan, and may impose higher tariffs on Japanese imports [6]. - Brazil's oil production in May reached 3.679 million barrels per day, a 10.9% year - on - year increase, and natural gas production was 172.3 million cubic meters, an 18.3% year - on - year increase [7]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 441,000 barrels per day in June to 6.36 million barrels per day, the highest in over a year [7]. - The US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which plans to cut taxes by $4 trillion and spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years, and raise the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market generally believes the Fed will likely remain cautious about interest rate cuts in June and July. After the suspension of Sino - US tariffs, the market atmosphere is good, but the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be seen. OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and the supply growth expectation is relatively certain, but the timing of the supply increase needs data verification. Geopolitical conflicts may be moving towards negotiation, but there is still a risk of short - term escalation. The demand side may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant increase in supply, the impact of seasonal demand on prices may be limited. Oil prices may fluctuate based on supply - demand expectations, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [2]. - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production - cut bottom in a sharp decline, it is testing the resistance level for the second time. The weekly chart of US oil shows a state of breakdown, retest, and oscillation. The trading side should maintain the idea of selling on rallies, and short positions and put options should be held [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 22, the price of Sc was 453.70 yuan/barrel, down 3.49% from the previous day and 1.52% from the previous week; WTI was 61.34 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.57% from the previous week; Brent was 64.03 dollars/barrel, down 0.85% from the previous day and 0.91% from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 65.60 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.37% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 65.36 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.54% from the previous week; Oman was 66.06 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.62% from the previous week; Dubai was 66.06 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.62% from the previous week; ESPO was 62.95 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.54% from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 1.76 dollars/barrel, down 56.12% from the previous day and 24.48% from the previous week; the Sc - Brent spread was - 0.93 dollars/barrel, down 221.10% from the previous day and up 54.93% from the previous week; the Brent - WTI spread was 2.69 dollars/barrel, up 249.87% from the previous day and down 547.59% from the previous week [2]. - **Sc Month - to - Month Spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was - 4.30 yuan/barrel, down 10.26% from the previous day and 272.00% from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was 0.20 yuan/barrel, down 91.30% from the previous day and 97.89% from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C13 was 6.50 yuan/barrel, down 26.14% from the previous day and 61.76% from the previous week [2]. - **Ascending and Descending Premiums**: OPEC's basket of crude oil ascending premium was 1.57 dollars/barrel, up 101.28% from the previous day and down 270.65% from the previous week; Brent DTD descending premium was 1.33 dollars/barrel, down 10.14% from the previous day and 154.51% from the previous week; Oman ascending premium was 2.03 dollars/barrel, up 498.04% from the previous day and down 184.58% from the previous week [2]. - **Finished Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6651.73 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day and 0.27% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7636.73 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week [2]. - **Other Spreads**: Diesel in East China/Sc was 14.661070, up 3.87% from the previous day and 1.82% from the previous week; gasoline in East China/Sc was 16.832108, up 3.70% from the previous day and 0.89% from the previous week; diesel - gasoline in East China was - 985.00 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous day and 6.36% from the previous week [2]. 2. Inventory Data - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 402.90 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day; the strategic petroleum reserve was 400.49 million barrels, up 0.21% from the previous week [2]. - **EIA US Data**: Commercial crude oil was 443.16 million barrels, up 0.30% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.44 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; gasoline was 225.52 million barrels, up 0.36% from the previous week; distillates were 104.13 million barrels, up 0.56% from the previous week [2]. 3. CFTC Position Data - Non - commercial net positions were 18.53 million contracts, up 5.63% from the previous week; commercial net positions were - 18.48 million contracts, down 2.35% from the previous week; non - reported net positions were - 0.05 million contracts, down 108.97% from the previous week [2]. 4. Industry News - The US is "not yet convinced" to accept the G7's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian crude oil. The EU proposed to lower the price cap to $50 per barrel, while Ukraine advocates lowering it to $30 per barrel. The US is open to further discussion [3]. - Iran warned Israel not to take any adventurous actions and will respond decisively to any threats or illegal actions. Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a hypersonic ballistic missile attack on Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport, causing flight disruptions [4]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 2,000 to 227,000, indicating stable employment growth in May. Economists expect an increase in layoffs in the second half of 2025 due to import tariffs [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [5]. - The US is negotiating with Hamas through intermediaries in Doha, Qatar, to promote a cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. US President Trump is increasingly disappointed with Israel's handling of the Palestine - Israel issue [5]. - OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large - scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [6].

更新时间：2025年04月28日08时11分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 较上日 较上周 | | 单位 | 4月25日 | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc 2.70 原油期货 | | 元/桶 | 496.10 | | 0.55% | 5.40 | 1.10% | | 0.40 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 63.17 | | 0.64% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.41 | Brent | 美元/桶 | 66.91 | | 0.62% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.01 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 5.67 | | 0.09% | #N/A | #N/A | | 内外价差 | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 1.93 | -0.00 | -0.26% | #N/A | #N/A | | 1.81 | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.74 | | 93.32% | #N/A ...