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【冠通研究】沥青策略:震荡运行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 12:55
Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating operation" [1] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests interval operation for asphalt investment. It anticipates that asphalt will oscillate in the near term due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, cost support, and policy impacts [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - This week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 129,000 tons (5.1%) month - on - month and an increase of 353,000 tons (17.1%) year - on - year [1] - This week, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - This week, the supply in the East China region recovered, mainly through ship shipments, with a significant increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 1.26% to 272,400 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline this week and remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. Recent increases in crude oil prices have strengthened the cost support for asphalt [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries (including petrochemicals and building materials) will be gradually released. Policies such as inventorying old petrochemical and chemical plants and eliminating 20 - year - old backward facilities are more beneficial for long - term expectations but have limited impact on the near term [1] - Next week, some refineries in Shandong and East China will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns, and rainfall in some areas will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2509 fell 0.19% to 3,658 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,632 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,668 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 9,212 to 116,780 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 132 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Xinjiang Meihuite and some refineries in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly recovered compared with January - May 2025 but remained negative [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was 0.6%, up from - 0.4% in January - May 2025, ending consecutive negative cumulative year - on - year growth [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, down from 5.6% in January - May 2025 [4] - As of the week ending August 1, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - The government work report proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of the social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 908.8 billion yuan year - on - year. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 507.2 billion yuan year - on - year. New loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year [4] Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week ending July 25, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]
沥青 震荡偏强运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-22 23:25
Group 1: Macro Environment - The recent passing of the US stablecoin bill in the House of Representatives is expected to strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global financial system and potentially alleviate the US debt crisis [2] - Domestic "anti-involution" policies are generating positive sentiment, which is spreading to other commodity futures, leading to significant increases in the black and building materials sectors [2] - The global oil market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with OPEC+ increasing production significantly [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, which is significantly higher than previous increases, potentially restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day cut announced earlier this year [2] - The Northern Hemisphere is in the summer oil consumption peak, with US commercial crude oil inventories dropping to 422 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 3.859 million barrels [3] - The US refinery utilization rate remains high at 93.9%, indicating strong demand for crude oil [3] Group 3: Asphalt Market Analysis - Domestic asphalt production is showing slight growth, with a total weekly output of 572,000 tons, a minor increase of 6,000 tons [5] - Despite an increase in asphalt supply, demand remains strong, with a significant weekly increase in shipments to 414,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [5] - Asphalt social inventory has decreased significantly, with a weekly drop of 4.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [5][6] Group 4: Overall Outlook - The overall market for asphalt is characterized by strong supply and demand, with a clear trend of inventory reduction [6] - The combination of a positive macro environment, improved oil supply-demand structure, and stronger asphalt demand than supply suggests that the asphalt futures market will maintain a bullish trend [6]
【冠通研究】沥青:震荡上行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 12:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on asphalt, suggesting a strategy of buying the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to factors such as the continued recovery of asphalt production, approaching peak season, recent rise in crude oil prices, and the expectation of increased demand, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South. National asphalt shipments decreased by 4.67% to 249,000 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise slightly this week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Geopolitical and market factors: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran. Global trade war concerns have subsided somewhat, but the threat remains. Crude oil prices have risen recently. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.74% to 3,655 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,629 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,665 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,364 to 228,073 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 175 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Sinochem Quanzhou has intermittent production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared to January - April 2025. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, an improvement from - 0.4% in January - May. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, a decline from 5.6% in January - May [4] - Downstream operating rates: As of the week ending July 18, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - Fiscal policy and social financing: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, and new loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171 billion yuan [4] Inventory - As of the week ending July 18, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.1 percentage points to 17.0% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]
【冠通研究】沥青:低开震荡
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 10:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest going long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts on dips as the market is gradually entering the peak season [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. Constrained by funds and heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - Inventory: As of the week of July 11, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio continued to rise slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - Market environment: The intensity of Iran's retaliatory actions was lower than expected, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the US Treasury recently announced new sanctions against Iran. The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. Crude oil prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range recently [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.52% to 3,606 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a low of 3,598 yuan/ton and a high of 3,618 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 9,424 to 217,364 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,825 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 219 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: A refinery in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, the national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared with January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.4%, a slight increase from - 0.9% in January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, a slight decrease from 5.8% in January - April 2025 [4] - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from last year. The deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. The general public budget expenditure is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year. The total new government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year [4]