Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating operation" [1] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests interval operation for asphalt investment. It anticipates that asphalt will oscillate in the near term due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, cost support, and policy impacts [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - This week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 129,000 tons (5.1%) month - on - month and an increase of 353,000 tons (17.1%) year - on - year [1] - This week, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - This week, the supply in the East China region recovered, mainly through ship shipments, with a significant increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 1.26% to 272,400 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline this week and remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. Recent increases in crude oil prices have strengthened the cost support for asphalt [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries (including petrochemicals and building materials) will be gradually released. Policies such as inventorying old petrochemical and chemical plants and eliminating 20 - year - old backward facilities are more beneficial for long - term expectations but have limited impact on the near term [1] - Next week, some refineries in Shandong and East China will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns, and rainfall in some areas will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2509 fell 0.19% to 3,658 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,632 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,668 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 9,212 to 116,780 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 132 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Xinjiang Meihuite and some refineries in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly recovered compared with January - May 2025 but remained negative [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was 0.6%, up from - 0.4% in January - May 2025, ending consecutive negative cumulative year - on - year growth [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, down from 5.6% in January - May 2025 [4] - As of the week ending August 1, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - The government work report proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of the social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 908.8 billion yuan year - on - year. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 507.2 billion yuan year - on - year. New loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year [4] Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week ending July 25, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares are mainly speculating on the "anti-involution" policy and the beneficiary sectors of the Yarlung Zangbo River project. The news of the official launch of the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 this year has driven the strength of relevant beneficiary sectors. With overall positive domestic and overseas factors, A - share liquidity and market sentiment are strong, and stock index is expected to run strongly. The strategy is mainly to adjust and go long [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DR001 rose more than 28bp to 1.65%, and DR007 rose 9.33bp to 1.58%. GC001 fell 48.50bp to 1.09%, and GC007 rose 1.50bp to 1.58%. SHBOR 3M rose 0.20bp to 1.55%, and LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50%. The yield of 1 - year treasury bond rose to 1.39, 5 - year treasury bond rose to 1.59, 10 - year treasury bond rose to 1.74, and 10 - year US bond rose 5.00bp to 4.40% [3] - The central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 119.5 billion yuan. There are 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 25 [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - At the close yesterday, CSI 300 rose 0.71% to 4149, SSE 50 rose 0.4% to 2812.4, CSI 500 rose 1.56% to 6293.6, and CSI 1000 rose 1.42% to 6701.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1844.7 billion yuan, a slight contraction of 19.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with only the precious metals and banking sectors falling [4] - The trading volume of IF decreased by 12.9%, and the position increased by 0.9%; the trading volume of IH decreased by 19.5%, and the position increased by 0.1%; the trading volume of IC decreased by 9.3%, and the position increased by 0.7%; the trading volume of IM decreased by 3.1%, and the position remained unchanged [4] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.81%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 2.42% respectively; those of IH are - 1.74%, - 0.95%, - 0.49%, and - 0.30% respectively; those of IC are 6.33%, 6.88%, 7.41%, and 7.18% respectively; those of IM are 6.27%, 7.89%, 9.78%, and 9.75% respectively [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts on the urea market. Although the policy of promoting stable growth in key industries may boost the market sentiment, the supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented [1]. 3. Content Summary by Category a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 23, compared with July 22, UR01 closed at 1779 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.66%), UR05 at 1793 yuan/ton (-22 yuan or -1.21%), UR09 at 1773 yuan/ton (-44 yuan or -2.42%), and Shandong spot - related futures at 1830 yuan/ton (-10 yuan or -0.54%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Shanxi's spot price dropped to 1690 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.74%), while prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained stable. The price of melamine in Jiangsu decreased to 5100 yuan/ton (-100 yuan or -1.92%), while most downstream prices such as compound fertilizer prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1]. b. Market Information - **Futures Contract Details**: The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1827 yuan/ton, with a high of 1827 yuan/ton, a low of 1760 yuan/ton, a close of 1773 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1788 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 180,800 lots [1]. c. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The daily production of urea is close to 200,000 tons, at a high level, and the enterprise inventory is about 750,000 tons, with a slight de - stocking mainly due to increased port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations for urea are greater than its fundamentals. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily output close to 200,000 tons at a high level and enterprise inventory still around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides support for prices. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 3.24%), UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 3.84%). [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 21, prices in Shandong were 1,830 yuan/ton (up 1.10%), in Henan 1,840 yuan/ton (up 1.66%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (up 1.69%), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (up 1.66%). The price in Northeast China remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton. [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,200 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton on July 18 to 43 yuan/ton on July 21, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 of urea futures opened at 1,790 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1,818 yuan/ton, a low of 1,790 yuan/ton, and closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 1,807 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 195,945 lots. [1]