Group 1 - The main contract of Shanghai silver futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 10,287.00 yuan, with a current price of 10,278.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.42% [1] - Institutions predict that the precious metals market may enter a range-bound oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai silver main contract expected to operate within a range of 9,799 to 10,800 yuan per kilogram [2][3] - The market sentiment for precious metals is becoming cautious after previous highs, with future price movements dependent on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve officials' statements [2] Group 2 - The recent comments from Fed Governor Milan have significantly influenced market expectations regarding monetary policy, comparable to Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [3] - The strategy for precious metals suggests a focus on buying on dips, with the Shanghai silver main contract's reference range set between 9,799 and 10,800 yuan per kilogram [3]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the precious metals market was under significant pressure and retraced. After the interest rate cut decision was announced, the precious metals market maintained a downward trend due to the outflow of long - position funds after the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled. The subsequent trend will depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. In the short term, the market lacks further positive catalysts after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, and the precious metals market may enter a volatile range. The strategy is to try short positions lightly when the price is high and focus on range - band trading [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 824.1 yuan/gram, down 10.98; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9835 yuan/kilogram, down 71. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 87731 lots, down 8276; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 395854 lots, up 223963. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 168591 lots, up 3052; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122144 lots, up 3040. The gold warehouse receipt quantity was 56430 kilograms, up 2304; the silver warehouse receipt quantity was 1203523 kilograms, down 17905 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 829.6 yuan/gram, down 5; the silver spot price was 9834 yuan/kilogram, down 92. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.78 yuan/gram, up 3.26; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 1 yuan/kilogram, down 21 [2]. 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 975.66 tons, down 4.29; the silver ETF holdings were 15189.61 tons, down 28.23. The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 261740 contracts, up 12210; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 53937 contracts, down 1986. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 4. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.59%, up 2.29; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.67%, down 0.34. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.32 [2]. 5. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month pause. The FOMC statement pointed out that the downside risks in employment have increased, economic growth has slowed down in the first half of the year, and inflation has risen. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is over 90%. The US new housing starts in August decreased from 1.429 million units in July to 1.307 million units, far lower than the expected 1.365 million units. Building permits decreased from 1.362 million units in July to 1.312 million units, the lowest since May 2020. Japan's export value in August decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 87.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 1.1%, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 19.0%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points is 79.9% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, is experiencing a strong performance due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with gold prices showing reduced sensitivity to these changes while silver remains highly responsive [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold futures saw a slight increase of 0.46%, while silver futures rose by 1.89% [1]. - Analysts indicate that silver's price is significantly influenced by industrial demand and domestic macroeconomic policies, leading to greater volatility compared to gold [1]. - The strong performance of copper is also positively impacting silver prices, as both metals often exhibit correlated price movements [1]. Group 2: Silver Demand and Market Sentiment - The solar photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has driven silver demand, with silver paste demand accounting for over 20% of total silver demand [2]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, indicating a robust market outlook for silver [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 to below 90, suggesting a valuation opportunity for silver, attracting increased investment [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Upcoming U.S. PCE data is a focal point for the market, with expectations that core PCE year-on-year growth will decline to around 3.0% [3]. - The market has fully priced in expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with significant declines in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [3]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve officials' statements and the dot plot for future monetary policy direction [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold and Silver - In the context of geopolitical instability and ongoing central bank gold purchases, gold prices are expected to maintain a bullish trend [4][5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions continues to support gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - The correlation between gold and other asset classes remains low, suggesting that gold can serve as a valuable diversification tool in investment portfolios [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to provide medium - term support for the gold price. In the long - term, the logic of being bullish on gold remains unchanged. For silver, the tight supply - demand pattern and financial attributes provide bottom support, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic "anti - involution" measures may boost its industrial attributes, with room for the gold - silver ratio to repair. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices in the short - term, with attention to specific price intervals for gold and silver contracts [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 782.5 yuan/gram, up 1.08; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9075 yuan/kg, up 36. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are 218,652 hands and 367,528 hands respectively, with changes of +956 and - 3523 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts are 168,376 hands and 99,074 hands respectively, with changes of +1709 and +614 hands. The warehouse receipt quantities of gold and silver are 36,009 kg and 1,157,291 kg respectively, with changes of +120 and - 16,982 kg [2] - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 780.3 yuan/gram, up 3.13; the silver spot price is 9048 yuan/kg, up 108. The basis of the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts is - 2.2 yuan/gram and - 27 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of +2.05 and +72 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The gold ETF holdings are 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15,021.87 tons, down 34.79 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC are 223,596 and 59,407 respectively, with changes of - 29,442 and - 1213. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold are both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the annual global total demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of gold are 12.15% and 11.47% respectively, up 0.6 and 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for gold are 18.26% and 18.25% respectively, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points [2] 2. Industry News - Trump said that India resells a large part of Russian oil on the open market for huge profits, and the US will significantly increase tariffs on India. The EU will suspend the implementation of tariff counter - measures against the US for six months and continue to cooperate to finalize a trade joint statement. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and it seems appropriate to cut rates twice by 25 basis points this year. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.4% [2] 3. Operational Suggestions - Pay attention to the US trade balance and ISM services PMI data to be released tonight. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices in the short - term, with the Shanghai gold 2510 contract focusing on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver 2510 contract focusing on the range of 8900 - 9100 yuan/kg [2]