证券研究报告 | 2025年10月30日 舍得酒业（600702.SH） 优于大市 2025Q3 报表继续释放压力，普通酒及电商渠道表现较好 第三季度收入及净利润延续调整态势。2025Q1-3 公司实现营业总收入 37.02 亿元/同比-17.0%，归母净利润 4.72 亿元/同比-29.4%；其中 2025Q3 营业总 收入 10.00 亿元/同比-15.9%，归母净利润 0.29 亿元/同比-63.2%。 2025Q3 受政策影响收入延续下滑，低价位产品、电商渠道表现较好。分产品看， 2025Q3 中高档酒收入 6.87 亿元/同比-23.4%，普通酒收入 1.81 亿元/同比 +18.0%，产品结构变化延续此前趋势，我们预计沱牌特曲 T68 增速最快，品 味舍得下滑幅度仍高于整体、动销及开瓶表现或好于收入端。分渠道看， 2025Q3 批发代理渠道收入 7.54 亿元/同比-23.4%，电商销售渠道收入 1.14 亿元/同比+71.4%，电商渠道以差异化产品为主，销售表现较好。分区域看， 2025Q3 省内收入 2.68 亿元/同比-22.8%，省外收入 6.00 亿元/同比-14.7%， 省外调整较早、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][19]. Core Views - The company continues to experience revenue and net profit adjustments, with a total revenue of 3.702 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - The decline in revenue is influenced by policy changes, but low-priced products and e-commerce channels are performing well, with e-commerce sales increasing by 71.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2][4]. - The company is expected to recover growth in the coming years as market conditions improve, with projected revenues of 4.619 billion yuan in 2025, down 13.8% year-on-year, but increasing by 10.3% and 12.0% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 62.1%, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin decline of 3.7 percentage points [3][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 312 million yuan, a decrease of 188 million yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.74 yuan, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [5][11].

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Industry**: Liquor/Alcohol Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Shede Liquor's profit increased by **139.5%** year-on-year, while revenue remained stable compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in performance [2][3] - The company implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, controlling procurement and operational expenses, which will continue until 2026 to navigate the industry's deep adjustment period [2][5] Market Outlook - The company holds a positive outlook for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with good sales momentum and a commitment to high-end product positioning [2][6] - The "Three Good" pricing management system was introduced to stabilize the market, balancing supply and demand, managing costs, and governing channels [2][6] Product Strategy - The product structure remained largely unchanged, but performance varied across price segments. High-end products like Shede Ten Years saw nearly **100%** growth, while lower-tier products faced challenges [4][14] - The company plans to launch a **29-degree** product to attract consumers, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [2][22] Sales Channels and Growth Strategies - Shede is focusing on e-commerce and direct sales teams to explore new markets, targeting seven core base markets [2][6][15] - The company has initiated the "Thunder Action" to recover low-priced products in the market and control promotional efforts to ensure stable profits for distributors [2][10] Competitive Environment - In response to competitive pressures, Shede is enhancing its pricing management, innovating product structures, and expanding sales channels [8][20] - The company is also focusing on banquet scenarios and corporate group purchases to offset declines in business consumption [9][20] Regional Market Development - Shede has identified six major base markets for expansion, aiming to increase market share in these regions over the next 3-5 years [17] Internationalization - The company has begun international expansion, which not only boosts sales but also enhances brand reputation [18] Employee and Distributor Relations - Maintaining distributor profitability is crucial, with over **85%** of distributors currently profitable, fostering strong relationships [25] - The company has implemented a performance-based incentive system to maintain team morale and efficiency [24][26] Future Demand and Market Trends - The company anticipates a recovery in demand across different price segments, with a focus on high-end and low-end markets [16] - The introduction of ultra-low alcohol products targets both existing consumers and new demographics, such as younger drinkers [23] Conclusion - Shede Liquor is strategically positioned to navigate the current industry challenges through cost management, product innovation, and market expansion efforts, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of 2025 [7][16]