证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 毛利率季度企稳，过程计量实现重点客户突破 [Table_Summary] 事件： 2025年前三季度，公司实现营业收入23.55亿元，同比增加5.52%；归母净利润2.07亿元，同比减少30.49%； 扣非归母净利润 1.80 亿元，同比减少 29.98%。 2025 年单三季度，公司实现营业收入 8.16 亿元，同比增加 9.15%；归母净利润 0.72 亿元，同比减少 10.03%； 扣非归母净利润 0.63 亿元，同比减少 6.19%。 1、行业供需影响整体毛利率水平，拉低盈利空间，毛利率季度环比 Q3 企稳 公司 Q3 营收 8.16 亿元，同比增长 9.15%，基本保持 Q2 同比增长水平。单季度毛利率 36.69%，环比略升 0.18pct，同比下降 4.96pct，主要系宏观环境和行业供需格局等影响，考虑公司 Q2Q3 毛利率及营收增长情 况，我们认为，公司持续聚焦优质客户，严控采购降本，毛利率情况有望稳定改善。 2025 年前三季度期间费用率 27.47%，同比下降 2.39pc ...

Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and International Expansion - The company has signed a joint investment agreement with Samruk-Kazyna Invest LLP in Kazakhstan, establishing GoldcardSmart Group Kazakhstan LLP to enhance local market services and explore similar models in other countries [1] - The company is increasing investments in overseas markets, having achieved breakthroughs in several "Belt and Road" countries, and plans to further expand its global presence [2] Group 2: Product Development and Market Opportunities - The process measurement segment has successfully completed certifications for key products, including quality flow meters and electromagnetic flow meters, achieving sales breakthroughs with nearly 60 clients [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from national policies promoting domestic substitution of key technologies, creating significant market opportunities for leading domestic instrument manufacturers [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Domestic Substitution - Foreign brands like Emerson and Endress+Hauser still hold market share in high-end industrial gas measurement, but the domestic substitution trend is accelerating, with the company leading in hydrogen measurement technology [3] - The company plans to increase R&D investments to strengthen its market position and expand both domestically and internationally [3] Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Relations - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 4.96% year-on-year due to various macroeconomic and market factors, prompting a focus on optimizing product structure and cost reduction [4] - The increase in shareholding by Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited by 0.185 percentage points indicates foreign investors' confidence in the company's fundamentals and market outlook [4] Group 5: Future Business Development - The company’s subsidiary, Zhejiang Tianxin New Energy, is positioned to capitalize on the growing solar and energy storage markets, leveraging its software and patent technologies [5] - The company emphasizes its commitment to shareholder returns and plans to maintain high dividend levels, contingent on financial health and operational performance [5]

Group 1 - The company held an online performance briefing on September 3, focusing on overseas business and new business segment layouts, with key executives participating to address investor inquiries [1] - The company has increased strategic resource investment in overseas markets, successfully completing international certifications for several key products, and is leveraging opportunities from the "Belt and Road" initiative [1] - A joint investment agreement was signed with Kazakhstan's Samruk - Kazyna Invest LLP to establish Goldcard Smart Group Kazakhstan LLP, aiming to explore this model in more potential markets [1] Group 2 - In the hydrogen energy sector, the company has established a leading technology layout and product matrix, with core product performance certified by international authorities [2] - The company reported a slight increase in main business revenue but a decline in net profit, attributing this to strategic resource investments in overseas and process measurement businesses [2] - The company has established Tianxin New Energy to engage in photovoltaic and energy storage projects, focusing on technology development and cost control to expand application scenarios [2]

Group 1: Overseas Market Expansion - The company has increased strategic resource investment in overseas markets, successfully completing international certifications for key products, laying a solid foundation for market expansion [1] - The company is focusing on the "Belt and Road" initiative and the rising demand for smart solutions, achieving good revenue growth in existing markets like the Russian-speaking region and South America [1] - A joint venture with Kazakhstan's Samruk-Kazyna Invest LLP has been established to enhance local service capabilities and explore similar models in other potential markets [2] Group 2: Business Performance and Financials - The company has made market breakthroughs in several "Belt and Road" countries, including Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, and others, contributing to its revenue [3] - The process measurement segment has completed certifications for key products, achieving sales breakthroughs with nearly 60 clients, including major industry players [4] - Despite a slight increase in main business revenue, net profit has decreased due to intense industry competition and increased investment in overseas and process measurement businesses [5] Group 3: Future Strategies and Market Outlook - The company plans to accelerate product market expansion and create benchmark customer demonstration effects to achieve domestic substitution of key technologies [4] - In the hydrogen energy measurement sector, the company has developed a leading technology layout and product matrix, with core products recognized by international authorities [4] - The photovoltaic and energy storage markets are seen as having significant growth potential, with the company responding to government initiatives by establishing a new energy division to focus on these areas [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its H1 2025 results, showing a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, primarily driven by the performance of its digital gas and water sectors, while also highlighting ongoing efforts in product innovation and international expansion [1][3][5]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.539 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 135 million yuan, down 37.97% year-on-year [1]. - The digital gas segment was the main growth driver, with smart residential gas meter revenue reaching 990 million yuan, up 11.49% year-on-year, although the gross margin decreased by 2.94 percentage points [1]. - The industrial and commercial gas terminal revenue was 320 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.52% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47.74%, down 7.58 percentage points [1]. Sector Performance - The digital water sector reported revenue of 110 million yuan, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.26%, a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points [1]. - The public utility sector saw revenue of 120 million yuan, a significant decline of 24.71% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.17%, down 9.71 percentage points [2]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is advancing its digital energy and process sectors, with successful testing of gas turbine flow meters for hydrogen and natural gas mixtures, positioning itself as a leader in domestic hydrogen measurement technology [3]. - New product launches include the TCF quality flow meter, TEF electromagnetic flow meter, and TVF vortex flow meter, enhancing the company's measurement solutions across various pressure and medium scenarios [7]. Cost Management and Inventory - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 35.9%, down 5.9 percentage points, with specific margins for residential and industrial gas terminals at 31.97% and 47.74%, respectively [4]. - The company reported a total inventory of 550 million yuan and accounts receivable of 2.18 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 18.29% and 12.01%, respectively [4]. International Expansion - The company has increased its overseas resource investment, successfully obtaining international certifications for key products and securing orders in several countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, resulting in a 49.79% year-on-year increase in overseas sales [5]. AI and Technology Integration - The company is actively integrating AI technology into its operations, utilizing IoT, big data, and digital twin technologies to enhance safety and operational efficiency in the energy sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 4% year-on-year for 1H25, but a significant decline of 38% in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 1.539 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 135 million, a 38% decrease year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 837 million, a 9% year-on-year increase and a 19% quarter-on-quarter increase; net profit was 92 million, a 23% year-on-year decrease but a 110% quarter-on-quarter increase, showing improvement [1] - The company expects to benefit from the increasing penetration of smart gas meters in China and ongoing expansion in the flow meter sector and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In 1H25, revenue from smart residential gas terminals and systems was 992 million, an 11.49% year-on-year increase; sales of residential ultrasonic gas terminals surged by 86.06% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from smart industrial and commercial gas terminals and systems was 319 million, a slight decrease of 0.52% year-on-year; smart water terminals and systems revenue was 109 million, down 5.95% year-on-year; revenue from smart public utility management systems and others was 118 million, down 24.71% year-on-year [2] - Domestic revenue for 1H25 was 1.477 billion, a 2.39% increase year-on-year; international revenue was 61 million, a significant increase of 49.79% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Control - The overall gross margin for 1H25 was 35.90%, a decrease of 4.76 percentage points year-on-year; the gross margin for smart residential gas terminals and systems was 31.97%, down 2.94 percentage points year-on-year; for smart industrial and commercial gas terminals and systems, the gross margin was 47.74%, down 7.58 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company maintained stable cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 1H25 at 15.74%, 4.32%, and 7.39%, respectively, showing minor changes year-on-year [3] Group 4: Market Expansion - The company successfully completed certifications for various flow meters, enhancing product maturity and market adaptability, achieving breakthroughs with nearly 60 clients, including major industry players [4] - Increased investment in overseas resources led to successful international certifications for key products, facilitating market expansion [4] - The company capitalized on opportunities from the Belt and Road Initiative, securing orders in several countries along the route, including Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, and others [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 333 million, 365 million, and 405 million, respectively, with adjustments of -19% for each year [5] - The average PE for comparable companies in 2025 is expected to be 19x, leading to a target price of 15.13, down from a previous 16.66 [5]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - Kingcard Intelligent has over 20 years of experience in the IoT sector, maintaining a leading position in the digital gas market with a global market share of 1st place according to Omdia's 2023 survey [3] - The company has served over 3,500 energy enterprises and more than 60 million urban households, showcasing its extensive market reach [3] - In 2025, Kingcard plans to launch three core products: quality flow meters, electromagnetic flow meters, and vortex flow meters, covering a full range of measurement solutions from conventional to ultra-high pressure [4] Group 2: Technological Innovation and R&D - In 2024, R&D expenses are expected to increase by 1.07%, focusing on ultrasonic, laser measurement technologies, big data platforms, and AI algorithms [5] - The company is involved in two national key R&D projects and has developed the first domestic ultrasonic gas meter certified for mixed hydrogen testing [5] - Kingcard aims to accelerate the localization of high-performance measurement products, driving technological upgrades and new growth momentum [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit was 62.30 million yuan, a decrease of 43.76% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the performance of an associated company and a goodwill impairment of 22.49 million yuan [6] - For the full year 2024, operating revenue was 3.066 billion yuan, down 3.43%, and net profit was 360 million yuan, down 11.88% [6] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to stricter industry compliance and quality requirements, which slowed product inspection speeds [6] Group 4: Market Expansion Strategies - In 2025, Kingcard will focus on enhancing market share in the digital gas sector by leveraging favorable policies and promoting high-tech products [4] - The company plans to strengthen brand promotion and expand smart service scenarios in the digital water sector [4] - For overseas markets, Kingcard will increase R&D and sales investments, solidifying its presence in existing markets while expanding local operations [4] Group 5: Shareholder and Governance Insights - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders was 25,700, a decrease of 1,065 from December 31, 2024, but this change has not significantly impacted the company's governance or decision-making [6] - Kingcard is committed to enhancing governance transparency and ensuring that shareholder interests remain central to its strategic decisions [6]