智通财经APP获悉，从能源到大宗矿石等大宗商品的全球海运费率，正走向一次极为罕见的年末飙升，持续上演的地 缘政治冲突、西方国家制裁举措以及不断攀升的产量正在颠覆全球海运供应线路。当前出现的年末运费暴涨凸显出 需求端并未如期"冬眠"，反而被AI基础设施+能源+大宗复苏顶着往上冲，而供给端则被地缘冲突和制裁"人为缩 水"，有效运力被拉长、被锁死，在短期运力基本固定的行业里，最终的结果就是——价钱突然间爆到天花板。 在全球关键航线上运输庞大原油产品的日收益今年以来出现了最大涨幅，大幅上涨了467%——年初到11月底基准航 线日收益的累计涨幅;而运输液化天然气以及铁矿石等商品的费率则分别上涨超过四倍和两倍。由于海运往往呈现出 明显的需求季节性走弱，运费成本通常在年末显著回落。 上图显示，全球运费市场已有相当长一段时间未如此乐观，2025年全球范围内的主要航线关键船型年内运输价涨幅 巨大。这里指的是今年以来到11月底，关键原油航线日运费(等价期租)的年内累计涨幅。 "我们看到的是一个老派并且运输产能极度紧张的实物流运市场，"运营包括超大型原油运输船在内油轮船队的 Frontline Management AS首席执行官 ...

Group 1 - Zhongyuan Shipping (01138) opened over 3% higher, currently up 3.09% at HKD 9.34, with a trading volume of HKD 4.0722 million [1] - On September 22, Zhongyuan Shipping indicated a significant increase in tanker freight rates, positively impacting the fleet earnings of global tanker owners [1] - The company's VLCC fleet is mostly in spot operation, benefiting from the current market conditions [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan considers Zhongyuan Shipping as China's largest tanker operator and a global leader in crude oil, refined oil, and LNG transportation [1] - The company operates a diversified fleet under China COSCO Group, providing downside protection in a volatile freight market due to its scale, newer vessel age structure, and increasing LNG business [1] - Huayuan Securities reported that VLCC TD3C TCE reached USD 96,000 per day on September 16, 2025, maintaining high levels thereafter, marking the best September VLCC freight rates since 1990 [1] Group 3 - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle East cargoes expected for October shipments [1] - The available VLCC capacity in the next 30 days is projected to reach the lowest level in the past year, suggesting potential further increases in VLCC freight rates, possibly surpassing the September high since 1990 [1]

Group 1 - The stock of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) opened over 3% higher, currently up 3.09% at HKD 9.34, with a trading volume of HKD 4.0722 million [1] - On September 22, during the 2025 semi-annual performance briefing, COSCO Shipping Energy announced a significant increase in tanker freight rates, positively impacting the fleet earnings of global tanker owners [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that COSCO Shipping Energy is the largest tanker operator in China and a leading global transporter of crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), benefiting from a diversified fleet and a relatively new fleet age structure [1] Group 2 - The VLCC TD3C TCE reached USD 96,000 per day on September 16, 2025, maintaining a high level in the following days, marking the best September VLCC freight rate since 1990 [1] - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle Eastern cargoes expected for October, potentially leading to further increases in VLCC freight rates [1] - The available VLCC capacity in the next 30 days is projected to reach the lowest level in the past year, suggesting that VLCC freight rates may rise further, potentially surpassing the September freight rate peak since 1990 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on COSCO Shipping Energy, assigning an "Overweight" rating for H-shares with a target price of HKD 12 and a "Neutral" rating for A-shares with a target price of CNY 13 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - COSCO Shipping Energy is the largest oil tanker operator in China and one of the leading companies globally in crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation [1] - The company operates a diversified fleet under the energy transportation segment of China COSCO Shipping Group [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The scale, relatively new fleet age structure, and increasing LNG business provide the company with downside protection in a volatile freight market [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from a prolonged upcycle over the years [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% for the company's net profit from 2025 to 2027, supported by freight recovery, structural supply-demand catalysts, and cautious fleet expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) rose by 5.58% to 10.79 yuan as of the market close on August 22, 2025, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The trading volume on that day reached 1.496 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.00% [1]. - The stock experienced a net inflow of 126 million yuan from main funds, with a cumulative net inflow of 82.632 million yuan over the past five days [1]. - The stock price broke through the six-month moving average, with the latest price showing a deviation rate of 3.74% from the six-month average [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - COSCO Shipping Energy is primarily engaged in the transportation of crude oil and refined oil, both internationally and along China's coastal regions, and also involves liquefied natural gas transportation [1]. - The company is recognized as one of the leading energy transportation enterprises globally, with operations covering multiple major shipping routes [1].