大摩闭门会-金融、 地产、交运、线缆行业更新 20260304 摘要 2020—2025 年债务扩张的资金最终流向如何，是否有效支撑了居民收入、 存款与消费能力？ 2020—2025 年，公司与政府部门合计新增债务 160 多万亿，其中 140 多万 亿形成了居民存款沉淀。该过程通过提供工作岗位与收入来源，最终夯实居民 收入与存款基础，进而转化为消费能力。相较于直接以福利形式发放，该模式 更体现"按劳分配"的机制，覆盖面与持续性更强，且对稳定收入与就业更直 接。 政府杠杆上行对金融体系运行与风险化解的作用体现在哪些量化指标上？ 政府债务上升为金融体系理性放缓信贷扩张提供空间，信贷增速已从 2021 年 10%以上下降至 2025 年约 6%，与名义 GDP 更接近，整体风险随之收敛，也 为消化存量风险创造条件。制造业维度上，2025 年在财政支持与节奏调整下， 制造业贷款增速及中长期贷款增速降至 6.6，总负债增速降至 4%，产能增速降 至 0.6。供给增速已明显低于需求增速，后续重点转向存量产能过剩的消化与 风险出清。 基建投资在当前阶段的"乘数效应"与政策含义是什么，为什么仍被视为 2026 年支持需求的 ...

本报记者 肖艳青 据悉，2025年通达股份自愿披露中标公告11份，累计中标金额达到22.77亿元，与上年同比增长 46.08%。通达股份的客户主要为国家电网、南方电网、中国铁路总公司及国内大型总包企业集团。 在宋向清看来，通达股份2025年度业绩的大幅预增，是该公司战略聚焦、业务优化与行业红利共振的必 然结果，具有鲜明的成长逻辑与可持续性。从公司自身来看，其深耕特高压电缆核心赛道，精准把握国 家电网、南方电网等重点客户的需求机遇，全年中标金额超22亿元，同比增长46.08%，印证了其在高 端电力装备领域的竞争优势；同时子公司成都航飞受益于军工产业链复苏及订单交付提速，实现营收与 利润率双重回升，与电缆业务形成"双轮驱动"格局，而客户结构的持续优化则进一步提升了整体盈利质 量。 （编辑 孙倩） "面对行业日益激烈的竞争态势，公司依然实现了业务的高速增长，这主要得益于公司有一支高效专业 的管理团队，同时，在以国家电网和南方电网为代表的重点市场获得重大突破。此外，公司还调整客户 结构，提高了盈利能力。"刘志坚坦言。 中国商业经济学会副会长宋向清在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，通达股份扣非净利润增幅明显高 于净利润 ...

Core Insights - Traditional manufacturing leaders are leveraging technology and strategic transformation to navigate intense market competition [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 million yuan, up 268.86% [1] - The operating cash flow net amount reached 4.92 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 330.80%, with an expense ratio of 8.66%, down 1.48 percentage points [1] - Revenue per capita increased by 17.72% to 2.5797 million yuan [1] Main Business Segments - The three main business segments—intelligent cable networks, intelligent batteries, and smart airports—showed steady growth, forming the company's performance foundation [2] - Intelligent cable network revenue was 17.826 billion yuan, up 9.59%, with a net profit of 315 million yuan, a growth of 8.69% [2] - Intelligent battery revenue reached 1.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.92%, while net losses narrowed to 256 million yuan [2] - Smart airport revenue was 1.267 billion yuan, growing 15.75%, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 47.88% [3] Emerging Business Growth - The company made significant progress in emerging business areas, achieving revenue of 713 million yuan in AI, computing power, and robotics, a year-on-year increase of 139.52% [4] - The company has participated in over 40 computing center projects, collaborating with leading firms in AI chip technology [4] - In the robotics sector, partnerships with companies like UBTECH and Zhiyuan are advancing the industrialization of humanoid robots [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively involved in projects related to controlled nuclear fusion and has collaborated with top research institutions to advance superconducting materials and cables [5] - The demand for high-performance cables in AI data centers and robotics is expected to drive market growth, with a focus on specialized cables that meet specific technical requirements [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **communication industry** with a focus on **deep-sea technology** and its implications for offshore wind power and submarine cable sectors [3][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Support for Deep-Sea Technology**: The 2025 Government Work Report introduces "deep-sea technology," indicating significant future support for industries like offshore wind power and submarine cables [3][4]. 2. **Provincial Planning in Jiangsu**: Jiangsu Province has released a comprehensive plan for coastal and marine spatial development by 2035, emphasizing the construction of a 10 million kilowatt offshore wind power base [4][6]. 3. **Market Potential**: The report anticipates that more provinces will introduce policies related to deep-sea technology, enhancing the market potential for companies involved in this sector [3][4]. 4. **Submarine Cable Demand**: The demand for submarine cables is expected to rise due to the global expansion of AI technologies, exemplified by Meta's "Waterworth" project, which plans to lay over 50,000 kilometers of submarine cable [4][6]. 5. **Company Recommendations**: Companies such as **Zhongtian Technology** and **Hengtong Optic-Electric** are highlighted as key players in the deep-sea technology sector, with strong order backlogs and competitive advantages [3][4][6]. Financial Projections and Ratings - **Zhongtian Technology**: - Current share price: 14.36 CNY - EPS forecast for 2025: 1.34 CNY - PE ratio for 2025: 13x - Investment rating: Buy [5]. - **Hengtong Optic-Electric**: - Current share price: 16.15 CNY - EPS forecast for 2025: 1.68 CNY - PE ratio for 2025: 14x - Investment rating: Buy [5]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected progress on offshore wind projects, lower-than-expected submarine cable construction, and increased competition leading to reduced profitability [6]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of submarine cables in the context of AI-driven global data transmission, highlighting the technical challenges and the competitive landscape for domestic companies [4][6]. - The ongoing development of high-voltage power grids and smart infrastructure is expected to drive demand for specialized cables, further benefiting the recommended companies [4][6].