丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨亨通光电（600487.SH） 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title] 深海科技机遇凸显，AI 高端光纤突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 25Q2 公司营收稳健增长，费用端同比、环比均改善。深海经济政策红利显现，海底光缆迎来 更新换代，公司海洋业务在手订单充足；在超低损、多模、空芯等高端特种光纤领域取得突破； 持续回购完善长效激励，股东增持彰显长期信心。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于海宁 黄天佑 司鸿历 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522050005 SAC：S0490520080002 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX641 SFC：BVD284 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 亨通光电（600487.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 深海科技机遇凸显，AI 高端光纤突破 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 近日，公司公布 2025 年半年度报告，25H1 实现营业收入 3 ...

考虑到国内部分海风项目并网节奏略慢于预期，我们下修2025 年盈利预测3%至32.25 亿元，基本维持 2026 年盈利预测。当前股价对应2025/26 年15.7/12.8 倍P/E，维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到行业估值中枢 上移，我们维持目标价24.30 元，对应2025/26 年18.6/15.1 倍P/E 和19%上行空间。 风险 光通信业务结构性优化；光纤出口需求景气。公司积极推进光通信产品结构优化，超低损耗光纤、多模 光纤、空芯光纤等高端产品占比提升，G.654E 超低损光纤已实现从实验室创新到百万芯公里级商用的 跨越，空芯光纤实现关键技术突破并具备批量交付能力。公司官微显示AI 先进光纤材料研发制造中心 扩产项目已正式投建，我们认为公司扩产积极，有望充分受益AI 相关光纤的旺盛需求。此外，虽然国 内普缆需求仍平淡，海外光纤需求表现强劲，我们认为主要得益于欧美地区加大布局光纤入户，根据海 关数据，1H25 光棒/光缆/光纤出口量分别同比增长64.2%/1.9%/45.2%，同时公司持续推动墨西哥等海外 产能提升，有望更充分抓住海外增长机遇。 发展趋势 海洋通信&能源在手订单饱满，未来有望受益海底光缆建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue growth and a slight decline in net profit, indicating a solid financial position and effective cost control despite challenges in profit margins [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 32.05 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.61 billion yuan, remaining flat compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 18.78 billion yuan, up 26.6% year-over-year, but net profit decreased by 3.6% to 1.06 billion yuan, attributed to a high base from the same period last year [1]. - The company maintained a good cost control with a total expense ratio of 7.9%, down 2.1 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to a reduction in R&D expenses [1]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is accelerating the commercialization of high-end optical fiber products, including ultra-low loss fiber and multi-core fiber, with advanced loss values achieved in specific bands [1]. - The company is investing in AI advanced fiber expansion projects, expected to be completed by February 2026, which will likely enhance the gross margin of its fiber business [1]. Order Backlog and Market Demand - As of H1 2025, the company has a backlog of orders in the energy interconnection sector amounting to approximately 20 billion yuan, with strong demand in deep-sea applications [3]. - The company has secured over 2.6 billion yuan in new marine energy projects in H1 2025, indicating robust domestic and international order inflow [2][3]. - The company is positioned as one of the four domestic firms capable of cross-ocean cable engineering, with a significant backlog in marine communication business amounting to about 7.5 billion yuan [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to see continued improvement in profitability, with projections for net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.37 billion yuan, 3.90 billion yuan, and 4.52 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry in China [5] Core Insights - The deep-sea industry possesses significant strategic value, impacting national energy security, technological self-reliance, and the establishment of a maritime power status [6][10] - The development of deep-sea technology is increasingly recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with government policies driving its growth [6][23] - The deep-sea sector is characterized by long commercialization cycles and high technological barriers, making it a typical "long slope, thick snow" investment track [3] Summary by Sections National Strategy and Policy - The Chinese government has significantly elevated the importance of deep-sea technology, integrating it into national strategies and policies since 2012 [23][26] - Recent policies emphasize the need for technological innovation and the development of a modern marine industry system [25][26] Resource Endowment and Industrial Foundation - China's deep-sea areas are rich in resources, with significant oil and gas reserves identified, particularly in the South China Sea [28][29] - The country has established a solid industrial foundation for deep-sea development, contributing approximately 8% to the national economy [30] Technological Development and Challenges - China has made substantial progress in deep-sea technology, particularly in manned submersibles and deep-sea drilling capabilities, achieving world-class standards [36][37][40] - However, there are still gaps in core component localization and foundational research, which need to be addressed to enhance self-sufficiency [46][49] Industry Structure and Components - The deep-sea industry comprises upstream raw materials and key components, midstream equipment manufacturing, and downstream resource development applications [50] - Key materials include high-strength metals and specialized composites, with a significant demand for domestic alternatives due to low localization rates [52] Investment Recommendations - Focus on critical materials and components with "bottleneck" risks, military applications, and the fastest commercial progress in deep-water oil and gas development [3][6] - Highlight potential investment targets such as high-end sensors, titanium alloys, and underwater unmanned combat equipment [3]

负责实施该项目的两家西班牙公司分别是Islalink与Canalink公司，该新设海底光缆将连接加纳利群岛的 最大岛屿特内里费（Tenerife）和摩洛哥塔尔法亚（Tarfaya）。该项目意义重大：一是拓展加那利群岛 的国际连接版图，加强加那利群岛在全球电信网络中的枢纽地位，目前该版图已覆盖ACE（非洲海岸至 欧洲）、WACS（西非光缆系统）和2Africa等多个海底光缆系统；二是通过增加新的信息传输替代路线 方式增强摩洛哥数字和信息传输网络抗干扰能力，并在发生地震或意外人为干扰时最大限度地减少网络 服务中断，确保摩本地通信连续性；三是吸引外部投资，为摩洛哥和加那利群岛带来可观的经济和社会 发展效益。 8月18日，西班牙媒体瞭望塔网站报道，西班牙公司负责实施的连接摩洛哥与西班牙加纳利群岛海底光 缆项目预计于今年年底启动，该项目预算为4900万欧元，项目工期42个月，预计于2028年投入运营。 ...

Industry Overview - Submarine cables are essential infrastructure for global internet connectivity, with over 430 cables spanning approximately 1.3 million kilometers, connecting nearly all continents except Antarctica [8][26] - The submarine cable industry has a rich history dating back to the 19th century, with the first transatlantic cable laid in 1858, marking a significant advancement in global communication [3][6] - The modern era of submarine cables began in 1988 with the introduction of fiber optic cables, significantly increasing transmission speeds compared to traditional cables [6][10] Company Insights - China has emerged as a key player in the submarine cable industry, with Huahai Communication being the only Chinese company capable of providing comprehensive submarine cable solutions [18][19] - Following the divestiture of Huawei's submarine cable business in 2019, Huahai Communication has rapidly expanded, completing 134 projects with a total length of 94,000 kilometers, capturing 23% of the global project delivery market [21][23] - In comparison, American company SubCom has completed over 200 projects totaling approximately 840,000 kilometers, while French Alcatel and Japanese NEC have also made significant contributions to the market [23] Market Dynamics - The global submarine cable market is projected to grow from 1.2 trillion yuan in 2023 to 1.6 trillion yuan in the future, driven by the increasing demand for data transmission and the upcoming replacement of aging cables [26][29] - Approximately 40% of existing submarine cables were laid before 2000 and are nearing the end of their operational lifespan, leading to a forecasted surge in new installations and replacements over the next 5 to 10 years [29][30] - The submarine cable sector is characterized as a "high profit, high barrier, strong strategy" market, attracting attention from various countries due to its strategic importance in data sovereignty and national security [25][30] Geopolitical Context - The submarine cable industry is not only a technological domain but also a battleground for national interests, with the U.S. government expressing concerns over China's advancements in this field, citing national security as a pretext for competitive actions [23][32] - Control over submarine cables is increasingly viewed as a critical factor in global digital dominance, with implications for national sovereignty and economic interests [25][32]

Summary of Deep Sea Technology and Marine Economy Conference Call Industry Overview - The deep sea technology and marine economy are recognized as key pillars in the national strategy, with the national marine production value expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of GDP and contributing 11.5% to GDP growth [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The government has placed significant emphasis on deep sea technology, highlighting its importance alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy in the work report, indicating a period of rapid development supported by policy [1][3][5]. - Deep sea technology encompasses three main areas: deep sea material research and development, deep sea equipment manufacturing, and deep sea tool application, with structural and buoyancy materials being critical [1][6]. - The marine equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing new opportunities, particularly in underwater detection technology, underwater construction technology, and oil and gas production equipment, with significant growth potential in underwater robots and related fields [1][7][8]. - The shipbuilding industry is at a peak due to the shipping cycle, with shipbuilding completion volume expected to grow by 13.8% year-on-year in 2024, and new orders increasing by 58.8% [6][8][10]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities exist in deep sea technology, particularly in high-performance steel, alloy materials, and composite materials that are resistant to corrosion and high pressure [6]. - Companies such as Baotai Co., Baose Co., and Steel Research High-Tech are noted for their competitive edge in these segments [6]. - The marine equipment manufacturing industry is poised for growth, with a focus on underwater exploration and military equipment, supported by a favorable policy environment [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The development of offshore wind power is currently concentrated in nearshore areas, but there is significant potential for growth in deep offshore wind power, which will increase demand for submarine cables and related infrastructure [11][12]. - The trend towards digitalization and intelligence in deep sea technology is accelerating, with the construction of underwater data centers addressing cooling and land cost issues while ensuring data security and compliance [2][13][14]. - Marine communication, particularly its integration with AI, is identified as a promising direction for future development in deep sea technology [15].

Global Market Dynamics - The US stock market showed strong performance with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data [3][10] - European markets also rose, with the UK leading gains amid reduced political uncertainty [10] - The A-share market in China saw an increase, particularly in sectors related to Apple and innovative pharmaceuticals [17] Trade and Economic Agreements - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% tariff on goods subject to "transshipment" from China, complicating China's trade through Vietnam [6] - The agreement emphasizes the importance of origin certification, which may impact China's ability to utilize Vietnam for trade [6] - The report suggests that Chinese companies may accelerate overseas expansion, creating a new cycle of local production and consumption [6] Employment and Economic Indicators - The US added 256,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [9][10] - However, the report indicates underlying weaknesses in the job market, with a significant number of discouraged workers not counted in the labor force [9] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September due to ongoing economic concerns [9] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology stocks faced declines, while healthcare and materials sectors showed strength [12][13] - Macau's gaming industry is projected to recover, with a forecasted GGR growth of 7.6% in 2025, driven by increased market share for major operators [15] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the submarine cable sector, driven by AI and increased demand for deep-sea technology [20] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose following strong non-farm payroll data, with the yield curve flattening as the market adjusts to reduced rate cut expectations [29][32] - The report notes a significant increase in the US national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, alleviating immediate default risks [32] - Asian investment-grade bonds remained stable, with slight narrowing of spreads observed [32]

Group 1 - The US labor market remains resilient, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [1] - Structural mismatches in the labor market are evident, with government layoffs and AI advancements leading to an oversupply of white-collar workers, while tightened immigration policies result in a shortage of low-skilled positions [1] - The report suggests that the June non-farm data does not support an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, maintaining the view that the next rate cut may not occur until the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The submarine cable market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased demand from internet giants and government initiatives in deep-sea technology [1] - An estimated 540,000 kilometers of new submarine cables are projected to be built globally from 2026 to 2030, representing a 60% increase compared to the planned construction from 2021 to 2025 [1] - Chinese companies are anticipated to lead more submarine cable projects, with domestic firms enhancing their competitiveness in the market [1] Group 3 - The maturity of hardware technology is expected to accelerate the mass production of humanoid robots, as the current actuator transmission solutions are not fully converged [2] - There is significant cost reduction potential in the hardware of humanoid robots as technology iterates and scales up [2] - Companies with multiple competitive advantages and new process iteration opportunities should be closely monitored in the humanoid robotics sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is prioritizing undersea cables, satellites, and rockets as key commodities for national economic security, with undersea cables being included in a critical supply list [1] Group 1 - Japan's government recognizes the strategic importance of undersea cables for economic security [1] - The inclusion of undersea cables in the critical supply list indicates a shift towards safeguarding essential technologies [1] - This move reflects a broader trend among nations to secure supply chains for critical infrastructure [1]