新华财经北京11月18日电（崔凯）澳洲联储（RBA）发布的11月货币政策会议纪要显示，委员会全体成 员一致同意维持当前现金利率水平不变，并重申在高度不确定的经济环境下，决策应保持谨慎并严格依 赖最新数据。 会议期间，委员们深入讨论了近期通胀压力、劳动力市场前景以及当前货币政策是否仍具限制性等关键 议题。纪要指出，"潜在通胀压力可能比此前评估的要大一些"，同时承认"金融环境仍然略有限制性"， 但亦表示这一判断的确定性正在减弱。 针对不同情景，纪要提供了条件性政策指引：若需求复苏强劲，现金利率或将维持现状；若劳动力市场 显著恶化或经济增长令人失望，则仍会考虑进一步放宽货币政策。 在全球层面，委员会预计"2025年下半年全球增长可能放缓"，但认为"出现严重下行情况的可能性已降 低"。关于汇率，纪要称"澳元汇率仍接近均衡水平的估计值"，暂未构成重大政策考量因素。 会议还确认，特殊流动性援助的运作安排将保持不变。值得注意的是，纪要提及"无法确定哪种情况更 有可能发生"，反映出政策制定者在复杂宏观环境下的高度不确定性。 （文章来源：新华财经） 自进入本轮宽松周期以来，澳洲联储已累计下调基准利率75个基点，使利率降至202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%, citing recent inflation increases and uncertain economic prospects as key factors [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation has risen, with core inflation increasing from 2.7% to 3.0% in the September quarter, exceeding previous expectations [3] - Overall inflation rose to 3.2% in the September quarter, influenced by the end of electricity subsidies in several states [3] - The RBA anticipates core inflation to rise above 3% in the coming quarters, before declining to 2.6% by 2027 [3] Domestic Economic Activity - Domestic economic activity is recovering, with private demand showing continued strength and a robust real estate market [4] - Employment growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4.3% in August to 4.5% in September, although job vacancies remain high [4] - There are uncertainties regarding the sustainability of private demand recovery and its potential impact on labor demand and inflation [4] Global Economic Context - Global economic uncertainties remain high, but short-term growth forecasts have been revised upwards by many institutions [5] - Trade policies and geopolitical risks continue to pose threats to global economic stability, potentially suppressing demand growth [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA emphasizes the importance of maintaining price stability and full employment, considering the current inflation pressures and labor market conditions [6] - The committee will closely monitor data and evolving risks to guide future decisions, focusing on global economic developments and domestic demand trends [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%, indicating a focus on price stability and full employment while monitoring economic data and future prospects [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Inflation has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with overall inflation and trimmed mean inflation within the target range of 2% to 3% as of Q2. However, Q3 inflation may exceed previous expectations [3]. - Domestic economic activity is recovering, with private demand outpacing public demand, particularly in private consumption due to rising real household incomes and easing financial conditions. The housing market is strengthening, reflecting the impact of recent interest rate cuts [4]. Labor Market - The labor market remains stable but slightly tight, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Wage growth has declined from peak levels, but unit labor costs remain high due to weak productivity growth [4]. Global Economic Uncertainty - Global economic uncertainty persists, influenced by trade policies and geopolitical risks, which may suppress overall demand and weaken the domestic labor market. The transmission lag of recent monetary policy easing also contributes to uncertainty [5]. Monetary Policy Stance - The RBA believes maintaining the cash rate is appropriate given the recovery in private demand and the potential persistence of inflation in certain sectors. The committee emphasizes a cautious approach, ready to respond decisively to significant international developments affecting the Australian economy [6].