2025年10月30日凌晨2点，美联储主席鲍威尔的一句话让全球市场瞬间逆转"12月降息并非必然结果。 "此前刚宣布的降息25个基点和停止缩表组合拳，在30 分钟内引发美股跳水、黄金暴跌44美元、比特币失守11万美元关口。 这场政策豪赌的背后，是美联储在数据真空、内部分裂与政治压力下的艰难平衡。 美国政府停摆进入第29天，非农就业、零售销售、GDP增长等关键经济指标全面断供，美联储首次在"经济数据迷雾"中操作利率调整。 唯一可参考的官方 数据是上周发布的9月CPI报告，显示通胀率维持在3%的高位，但能源成本和关税政策带来的价格压力仍在持续。 美联储在声明中用词谨慎，将"经济活动适度增长"取代9月的"经济活动放缓"，同时承认"就业下行风险增加"。 这种模糊表述背后，是决策层对劳动力市场 真实状况的担忧。停摆前6月至8月的新增就业岗位已降至月均2.9万个，远低于疫情前水平。 鲍威尔在发布会坦言："在缺乏数据的情况下，可能有必要更加谨慎。 " 这种谨慎体现在投票分歧中：10名委员支持降息25个基点，但新任理事米兰要求降 息50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则反对任何降息。 米兰认为关税未显著推高通胀，延迟降息可能损 ...

Group 1 - The discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy is becoming clearer, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin indicating that any adjustments to rates may be moderate due to limited expected changes in economic activity for the remainder of the year [1][3] - Barkin noted that if the economy continues to show mild fluctuations, the corresponding adjustments to interest rate policy will also be small, emphasizing that decisions will depend on future economic data [3][6] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in the September meeting, leading to in-depth discussions about the policy path for the remaining two meetings of the year [5][8] Group 2 - Barkin's cautious stance reflects the data-dependent principle that Fed policymakers adhere to when making decisions, suggesting a gradual approach to rate adjustments if economic data remains stable [6][8] - The current U.S. economy is at a delicate moment, with a relatively strong labor market showing signs of slowing, and inflation gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target, but still with uncertainties [8] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key economic data, particularly employment and inflation indicators, which will provide critical insights for the Fed's decision-making in September [8]

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will restart interest rate cuts in September, which could extend and amplify the stock market rally [1][2] - Historical data supports this optimism, with 10 out of 11 instances of the Fed pausing for 5 to 12 months before cutting rates resulting in a rise in the S&P 500 index within a year [1] - The market's focus has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates this year to how many times and at what pace cuts will occur [1][2] Group 2 - Current market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with an 83.9% chance of at least two cuts in the remaining three policy meetings of the year [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record closing high, rising 1.5% for the week, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.3% [2] Group 3 - Several economic data releases, including the PCE index, non-farm payroll report, CPI, and PPI, could influence the Fed's decision before the September meeting [3] - Analysts believe that only unexpected events, such as a strong inflation report, could alter the current trend of anticipated rate cuts [3] Group 4 - If the Fed cuts rates, the stock market rally may extend beyond large-cap tech stocks, as lower rates typically encourage investors to seek higher returns [4] - Small-cap stocks are expected to benefit significantly due to their sensitivity to borrowing costs, with the Russell 2000 index rising 3.9% recently [5] Group 5 - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, some analysts warn that the market may be in an "overexcited state," raising concerns about sustainability [6] - Internal divisions within the Fed regarding the pace of easing policies have been highlighted, with some officials expressing reluctance to support rate cuts based on current data [6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, defending the "wait-and-see" approach to interest rates amid geopolitical tensions and pressure from President Trump for rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump criticized Powell's decision not to cut rates, calling it "stupid" and claiming that high rates cost the U.S. thousands of billions annually, while Europe has already implemented multiple rate cuts [1][2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, acknowledging steady economic expansion and low unemployment, while slightly adjusting its description of the unemployment rate [2] Group 2 - Powell's regulatory stance is under scrutiny, with proposals to eliminate the "supplementary leverage ratio," which could weaken banks' risk resilience but is seen by the Trump administration as an economic stimulus tool [3] - A controversial proposal by Senator Ted Cruz to prohibit the Fed from paying interest on bank reserves could save the federal government approximately $1.1 trillion over ten years, but economists warn it may destabilize the financial system [3] - The upcoming testimony is viewed as a critical test of the Federal Reserve's independence and policy wisdom, with potential impacts on global markets, including the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices [3]