25年原奶价格继续磨底，行业亏损推动奶牛存栏量持续去化。随着前期去产能效应显现，原奶供需逐步 趋于平衡，下游乳企喷粉量同环比明显下滑，25年下半年散奶价格企稳反弹，行业逐步进入去大包粉库 存阶段。该行判断原奶供给拐点、散奶价格拐点已现，继续看好2026-27年原奶周期上行。同时，肉牛 供给已经步入收缩通道，预计26年牛肉价格继续周期回升，亦能增加业绩弹性，建议重点关注优然牧 业、现代牧业等。 饲料 把握龙头第二增长极。水产料方面，预计26年水产养殖量稳定运行，养殖利润较前期收窄背景下，技术 升级和结构调整趋势将延续;26年预计畜禽料需求高位回落。海外饲料行业结构性变化为我国饲料企业 出海提供机会，国内龙头凭借配方成本和效率优势在海外享受高盈利水平，支撑海外饲料业务扩张保持 快速增长，开启成长新阶段。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，当前肥猪、仔猪销售均已陷入亏损状态，行业已经具备亏损 去产能的前期条件。随着养殖持续亏损，叠加"反内卷"政策背景，预计行业产能去化有望加速，生猪养 殖板块迎来左侧布局窗口期，同时关注冬季疫病对于产能影响。展望2026年，该行判断26年中期猪价有 望迎来向上拐点。随着行业竞争 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that in Q3 2025, the profitability of listed pig companies has significantly declined due to falling pig prices and rising raw material costs, while the cost variance within the industry remains substantial, leading to an expansion of cost advantages for high-quality pig companies. The overall demand is showing signs of recovery in the later cycle, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 due to accelerated sow capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Swine Farming - In Q3 2025, the profitability of 18 listed pig companies dropped to 5.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38% [2]. - The cost variance in the industry remains significant, with high-quality pig companies further enhancing their cost advantages [2]. - The operational cash flow of listed pig companies continues to improve, while capital expenditures remain low and debt ratios are high [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sow capacity reduction, which may elevate the average pig price in 2026 [2]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, with additional attention on Shennong Group, Dekang Agriculture, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome [2][5]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is expected to see an increase in the import of grandparent stock chickens in 2024, but it will not return to pre-disruption levels until 2025 [3]. - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the supply of commercial chickens in 2026 [3]. - The yellow feather chicken sector is experiencing a reduction in parent stock numbers to historically low levels, which may support future price increases [3]. - Recommended companies in poultry farming include San Nong Development for white feather chickens and Lihua Food for yellow feather chickens [3][5]. Group 3: Post-Cycle Demand - The demand for feed in the swine and poultry sectors is gradually recovering, leading to a notable improvement in feed demand [4]. - The demand for aquaculture feed is also expected to rise as the aquaculture sector recovers [4]. - The report forecasts continued demand growth for livestock feed in Q4 2025, while aquaculture feed demand may enter a seasonal decline [4]. - Recommended companies for feed include Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from overseas expansion [4][5]. - In the animal health sector, demand is recovering due to sustained profitability in the downstream farming sector, with major animal health companies expected to see improved profitability [4]. Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and attention on BioStock and Reap Biological [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group (002311) announced on October 20 that it has a well-established capacity layout for livestock and poultry feed, and the company plans to expand its capacity using a light asset model [1] Group 1 - The company has a comprehensive capacity layout for livestock and poultry feed [1] - Future expansion will focus on a light asset model [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the aquaculture feed industry, with a strong focus on cost-effective products and comprehensive service offerings driving sustained growth. The recovery in major aquatic product prices is expected to boost demand for the company's aquaculture feed. Additionally, the company aims to replicate its successful domestic competitive model in overseas markets, creating new growth opportunities [1][5]. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a comprehensive service leader in domestic aquaculture, with its core business in feed production and sales, holding the top position globally in feed sales. The company has maintained the number one position in domestic aquatic premix feed sales for 21 consecutive years and ranks among the top ten in poultry and livestock feed [5][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 114.6 billion yuan, with feed business revenue accounting for 80% and gross profit contributing 69% [12][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company continuously builds competitive barriers through a combination of product quality, service, and management. It invests approximately 26% of its profits in R&D, significantly lower raw material costs compared to industry averages, and provides a full range of services to enhance customer loyalty [5][29][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive service system that includes seedling, breeding technology, disease prevention, and safety control, ensuring that farmers achieve excess profits and enhancing user stickiness [48][50]. Market Outlook - The aquatic feed market is expected to grow due to increasing per capita consumption of aquatic products and rising penetration rates. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, with plans to expand its overseas market presence, targeting a sales volume of 7.2 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 20% [5][11][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.97 billion yuan, 5.86 billion yuan, and 6.63 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The target price is set at 71.76 yuan, based on a 24x PE ratio for 2025 [5][6].