Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The current sales of fat pigs and piglets are in a loss state, indicating that the industry is in a precondition for capacity reduction [1] - Continuous losses in farming, combined with the "anti-involution" policy, are expected to accelerate capacity reduction in the industry, creating a left-side layout window for the pig farming sector [1] - By 2026, it is anticipated that there will be an upward turning point in pig prices, as competition in the industry intensifies and companies focus on comprehensive competitive capabilities rather than just cost competition [1] Group 2: Dairy Industry - In 2025, raw milk prices are expected to continue to bottom out, with industry losses driving a reduction in dairy cow inventory [2] - As the effects of previous capacity reduction become evident, the supply and demand for raw milk are gradually balancing, leading to a stabilization and rebound in spot milk prices in the second half of 2025 [2] - The beef supply is entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to continue to rise in 2026, increasing performance elasticity [2] Group 3: Feed Industry - The water feed sector is expected to maintain stable aquaculture volumes in 2026, with a trend of technical upgrades and structural adjustments continuing [3] - Domestic feed demand for livestock and poultry is projected to decline from high levels, while structural changes in the overseas feed industry present opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [3] Group 4: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry faces intensified competition, with product prices under pressure as the farming sector transitions from profit to loss [4] - Revenue and profitability in the industry may face significant challenges, prompting companies to accelerate business transformation and explore opportunities in the pet business [4] Group 5: Pet Food Industry - The industry is beginning to show a trend towards concentration, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well [5] - In the medium to long term, there is optimism for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands, with companies leveraging global production layouts to mitigate trade friction impacts [5] Group 6: Agricultural Planting Industry - Corn prices are expected to bottom out and rebound in 2025, with a strong possibility of fluctuations in 2026 [6] - The corn seed market is currently in a state of oversupply, undergoing a destocking phase, and may see improved conditions as inventory levels decrease [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that in Q3 2025, the profitability of listed pig companies has significantly declined due to falling pig prices and rising raw material costs, while the cost variance within the industry remains substantial, leading to an expansion of cost advantages for high-quality pig companies. The overall demand is showing signs of recovery in the later cycle, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 due to accelerated sow capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Swine Farming - In Q3 2025, the profitability of 18 listed pig companies dropped to 5.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38% [2]. - The cost variance in the industry remains significant, with high-quality pig companies further enhancing their cost advantages [2]. - The operational cash flow of listed pig companies continues to improve, while capital expenditures remain low and debt ratios are high [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sow capacity reduction, which may elevate the average pig price in 2026 [2]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, with additional attention on Shennong Group, Dekang Agriculture, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome [2][5]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is expected to see an increase in the import of grandparent stock chickens in 2024, but it will not return to pre-disruption levels until 2025 [3]. - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the supply of commercial chickens in 2026 [3]. - The yellow feather chicken sector is experiencing a reduction in parent stock numbers to historically low levels, which may support future price increases [3]. - Recommended companies in poultry farming include San Nong Development for white feather chickens and Lihua Food for yellow feather chickens [3][5]. Group 3: Post-Cycle Demand - The demand for feed in the swine and poultry sectors is gradually recovering, leading to a notable improvement in feed demand [4]. - The demand for aquaculture feed is also expected to rise as the aquaculture sector recovers [4]. - The report forecasts continued demand growth for livestock feed in Q4 2025, while aquaculture feed demand may enter a seasonal decline [4]. - Recommended companies for feed include Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from overseas expansion [4][5]. - In the animal health sector, demand is recovering due to sustained profitability in the downstream farming sector, with major animal health companies expected to see improved profitability [4]. Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and attention on BioStock and Reap Biological [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group (002311) announced on October 20 that it has a well-established capacity layout for livestock and poultry feed, and the company plans to expand its capacity using a light asset model [1] Group 1 - The company has a comprehensive capacity layout for livestock and poultry feed [1] - Future expansion will focus on a light asset model [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the aquaculture feed industry, with a strong focus on cost-effective products and comprehensive service offerings driving sustained growth. The recovery in major aquatic product prices is expected to boost demand for the company's aquaculture feed. Additionally, the company aims to replicate its successful domestic competitive model in overseas markets, creating new growth opportunities [1][5]. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a comprehensive service leader in domestic aquaculture, with its core business in feed production and sales, holding the top position globally in feed sales. The company has maintained the number one position in domestic aquatic premix feed sales for 21 consecutive years and ranks among the top ten in poultry and livestock feed [5][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 114.6 billion yuan, with feed business revenue accounting for 80% and gross profit contributing 69% [12][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company continuously builds competitive barriers through a combination of product quality, service, and management. It invests approximately 26% of its profits in R&D, significantly lower raw material costs compared to industry averages, and provides a full range of services to enhance customer loyalty [5][29][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive service system that includes seedling, breeding technology, disease prevention, and safety control, ensuring that farmers achieve excess profits and enhancing user stickiness [48][50]. Market Outlook - The aquatic feed market is expected to grow due to increasing per capita consumption of aquatic products and rising penetration rates. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, with plans to expand its overseas market presence, targeting a sales volume of 7.2 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 20% [5][11][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.97 billion yuan, 5.86 billion yuan, and 6.63 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The target price is set at 71.76 yuan, based on a 24x PE ratio for 2025 [5][6].