记者从今日下午举行的新希望业绩交流会上获悉，上半年，公司饲料海外总销量突破300万吨，同比增 长约18%。其中，禽料销量增长约15%，猪料销量增长约14%，水产料增长超过30%，反刍料增长接近 翻倍。公司高管表示，"目前公司海外饲料中禽料吨利润接近140元，猪料吨利润已经达到300元以上。" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the aquaculture feed industry, with a strong focus on cost-effective products and comprehensive service offerings driving sustained growth. The recovery in major aquatic product prices is expected to boost demand for the company's aquaculture feed. Additionally, the company aims to replicate its successful domestic competitive model in overseas markets, creating new growth opportunities [1][5]. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a comprehensive service leader in domestic aquaculture, with its core business in feed production and sales, holding the top position globally in feed sales. The company has maintained the number one position in domestic aquatic premix feed sales for 21 consecutive years and ranks among the top ten in poultry and livestock feed [5][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 114.6 billion yuan, with feed business revenue accounting for 80% and gross profit contributing 69% [12][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company continuously builds competitive barriers through a combination of product quality, service, and management. It invests approximately 26% of its profits in R&D, significantly lower raw material costs compared to industry averages, and provides a full range of services to enhance customer loyalty [5][29][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive service system that includes seedling, breeding technology, disease prevention, and safety control, ensuring that farmers achieve excess profits and enhancing user stickiness [48][50]. Market Outlook - The aquatic feed market is expected to grow due to increasing per capita consumption of aquatic products and rising penetration rates. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, with plans to expand its overseas market presence, targeting a sales volume of 7.2 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 20% [5][11][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.97 billion yuan, 5.86 billion yuan, and 6.63 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The target price is set at 71.76 yuan, based on a 24x PE ratio for 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing high average weights for market release, indicating a need to focus on the expected differences in the sector [11][12] - The dairy and beef sectors are approaching a new cycle, with opportunities arising from the current market conditions [13][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, highlighting growth potential [15][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and demand improvements, suggesting a need for strategic investments [17][19] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biological breeding strategies [21][22] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, while the animal health sector is focusing on innovative products to break through market competition [23][24] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of August 16, the national average pig price is 14.34 CNY/kg, with a self-breeding profit of approximately 94 CNY per head [11] - The average weight for market release is at a historical high of 127.82 kg, indicating strong supply conditions [11][12] - The sector is advised to focus on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with key recommendations including Wen's Food Group and Muyuan Foods [12] Beef Sector - The live cattle price is 26.70 CNY/kg, showing a 0.6% increase week-on-week, while fresh milk prices are at 3.02 CNY/kg [13][14] - The dairy industry is nearing the end of a downturn, with potential for price rebounds as production capacity clears [14] Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly growing; pet food exports reached 16.79 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.70% [15][16] - Key recommendations include companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., focusing on high-growth domestic firms [16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainties in breeding imports, with a 30.14% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [17][18] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies like Shennong Development [18] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving high yields through improved breeding strategies, with a significant emphasis on food security [21][22] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [22] Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector highlights Hai Da Group for its market share growth and performance consistency [23] - The animal health sector is focusing on innovative products to address market saturation, with recommendations for companies like Kexin Biological [24]

近日，农业农村部召开生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，明确要求减产能、控操作、降体重，产能调控进入实质阶段。 甬兴证券指出，低成本是上市猪企穿越猪周期的核心竞争力，重点看好成本管控相对优秀或降本路径清晰的优质猪企。其他养殖产业链方面，受益于下游养 殖业存栏恢复，畜禽料需求有望逐步回升；高温临近，水产料迎来销售旺季。 中证畜牧指数估值仅2.67倍PB,处于历史12%分位数。 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）紧密追踪中证畜牧养殖指数，标的指数覆盖生猪养殖产业链，根据Wind概念划分，与养猪相关概念成份股权重合计占比超60%，包 括牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧、新希望等生猪养殖企业；疫苗、饲料等养猪上下游+禽类、水产等养殖概念占比近40%。 减产能:/ 全国能繁母猪存栏量目标调减100万 头,缓解供应过剩压力。 控操作: 叫停二次育肥、压栏增重等扰乱市场 行为。 降体車: 引导出栏体重控制在120公斤左右,避 免过度压栏导致的供给过剩。 产业格局:低估值+景气反转预期 供给改善驱动价格弹性 根据农业农村部数据、二季度未全国能繁母猪存栏量 4043万头,为3900万头正常保有量的103.7%,处于 绿色产能区间上端。 能繁母猪 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.831 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year. A cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) is proposed for all shareholders [4][12] - The company's feed sales volume increased significantly, with external sales reaching approximately 13.65 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26%. The breakdown includes aquatic feed sales of about 2.8 million tons (up 16%), poultry feed sales of about 7.3 million tons (up 24%), and pig feed sales of about 3.4 million tons (up 43%). The overseas sales also saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [14] - The company is focusing on improving breeding levels and has seen stable development in its seedling and animal health businesses. The pig breeding business is adopting a model that mitigates risks and locks in profits, while shrimp farming is strategically timed to compete with traditional products [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's feed sales gross margin was 10.04% (year-on-year stable), while the breeding business gross margin was 20.26% (up 3.37 percentage points). The company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 1.418 billion, 1.796 billion, 426 million, and 149 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +12.57%, +20.68%, +6.48%, and -30.37% [13] - The company expects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 128.599 billion, 147.750 billion, and 161.161 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.21%, 14.89%, and 9.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.025 billion, 5.455 billion, and 6.137 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.57%, 8.56%, and 12.50% respectively [16][17] Market Position - The company has further increased its market share due to the growth in feed sales and the increase in downstream inventory. The absolute increase in feed sales volume in the first half of 2025 is close to the company's target for the entire year [14] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its main business, leading to an upward revision of its earnings forecast for 2026-2027 [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid growth in its feed business, with significant performance in overseas markets. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 58.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 32.2 billion yuan, a 14.00% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 7.26% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 333 million yuan. Due to the better-than-expected sales growth in pig and poultry feed, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the feed business generated revenue of 47.139 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.02%, with a gross margin of 9.79%. The total feed sales reached 14.7 million tons, a growth of approximately 25% year-on-year. The external sales of poultry feed were 7.3 million tons, up 24% year-on-year, while pig feed external sales were 3.4 million tons, a 43% increase year-on-year. The external sales of aquatic feed reached 2.8 million tons, a 16% increase year-on-year. The overseas feed external sales increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in established regions and active expansion into new areas [5][6]. Profitability and Growth Projections - The company's breeding business revenue for H1 2025 was 9.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%, with a gross margin of 20.26%. The animal health business generated revenue of 464 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, while the seed business revenue was 770 million yuan, up 10% year-on-year. The company is focusing on building its breeding team capabilities and innovating its asset-light model, which has led to controllable risks and considerable profitability [6][9]. Earnings Forecast - The profit forecasts for the company are as follows: for 2025, 5.148 billion yuan; for 2026, 5.739 billion yuan; and for 2027, 6.172 billion yuan. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.09 yuan, 3.45 yuan, and 3.71 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.7, 15.9, and 14.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 588.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 26.4 billion yuan, up 24.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is close to achieving its annual feed sales growth target, with an external sales increase of approximately 284 million tons in the first half of 2025, nearing the annual target of over 300 million tons [4][8] - The overseas feed sales maintained a high growth rate of 40% year-on-year, indicating strong market expansion [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross profit margin of 9.79% in its feed business, showing a slight year-on-year increase [5] - The company’s net profit for the first half of 2025 was 26.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.6% increase after excluding non-recurring items [3] - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to reach 1397.9 billion yuan, 1580.6 billion yuan, and 1790.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 13.1%, and 13.3% respectively [8][10] Market Position - The company’s feed sales volume reached approximately 14.7 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 25% [5] - The company’s market share in the industrial feed sector has further increased, with total national industrial feed production reaching 158.5 million tons, up 7.7% year-on-year [5] Product Segmentation - The company’s poultry feed external sales were about 7.3 million tons, growing approximately 24% year-on-year, while pig feed external sales increased by about 43% to 3.4 million tons [5][6] - The company is actively developing a comprehensive service system for pig farming groups, which has led to rapid growth in feed product sales to these clients [7] Future Outlook - The company expects to see steady growth in pig slaughtering volumes, with projections of 660 million heads in 2025, 693 million in 2026, and 728 million in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10%, 5%, and 5% respectively [8] - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage by expanding its service offerings across the entire aquaculture value chain, including high-quality seedling and health management services [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 58.8 billion RMB in 2025H1, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.64 billion RMB, up 24.2% year-over-year [1][2]. - The growth in profitability is primarily driven by gains from pig futures hedging and strong growth in overseas feed business, with domestic aquaculture and pig feed businesses showing signs of recovery [1][2]. - The report anticipates continued domestic and international growth in the feed business, leading to an upward revision of the target price to 66.4 RMB, reflecting a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the company's feed external sales increased by 26% year-over-year to 13.65 million tons, with significant growth in aquaculture feed (16%), pig feed (43%), and poultry feed (24%) [2]. - The overseas feed business maintained a high growth rate of 40%, with a gross margin increase of 2.54 percentage points to 15.1%, significantly higher than the average gross margin of the main business [2]. Market Outlook - The company is actively expanding into the feed markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with a target of achieving 7.2 million tons in overseas feed sales by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [3]. - The domestic feed business is expected to recover starting in 2025, supported by rising prices in aquaculture due to declining stocking volumes and a rebound in pig inventory [3]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 5.02 billion RMB, 5.48 billion RMB, and 7.04 billion RMB, respectively [4][10]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.02 RMB, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.69% [10][16].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to maintain growth in hog output until at least September 2025, but overall hog prices are projected to remain under pressure, leading to a potential decline in profitability for the industry [1] - The number of breeding sows has started to decline since December 2024, with a slight increase in February 2025, and a 1.03% decrease in April 2025 compared to the peak in 2024, indicating a low overall capacity reduction in the industry [1] - The price of piglets has begun to decline since May 2025, which may prompt breeding farms to actively cull sows, leading to an expected simultaneous drop in hog and piglet prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Feed Industry - China's feed production reached 10.3 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, driven by the recovery in hog stocks, increased aquaculture, and stable poultry stocks [2] - Vietnam's animal feed production also saw growth, with a total output of 4.72 million tons (up 7.69% year-on-year) and aquaculture feed production of 2.84 million tons (up 8.37% year-on-year), indicating a robust demand for feed [2] - The growth in livestock and aquaculture stocks, along with increased feed penetration rates, suggests that Chinese feed companies are likely to experience good growth opportunities abroad [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The export of pet food from China has been growing, with a total export volume of 110,200 tons from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an export value of 3.22 billion yuan, up 6% [3] - Domestic consumption of pet food remains strong, with online sales of cat and dog food reaching 9.05 billion yuan from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3] - The chain rate of pet hospitals in China is still relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating potential for improvement in this area [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" for the agricultural sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.03 percentage points during the week of June 3-6, 2025, with the index closing at 2,682.22, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.91% [1][15] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of pigs at 14.05 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.43% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.89% [2] - The poultry sector is seeing stable chick prices but weak adjustments in meat chicken prices due to high inventory levels in downstream slaughtering [2] - In the agricultural products segment, wheat and soybean meal prices are weak, while japonica rice prices have increased [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector index rose by 0.91% and ranked 20th among 31 sectors [1][15] - The fishery sector showed the best performance with a 1.34% increase, followed by planting, feed, agricultural product processing, and breeding sectors [1][17] 2. Industry Key Data 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.05 yuan/kg, down 2.43% week-on-week and down 23.89% year-on-year [2] - Self-breeding profits are at 33.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.82 yuan/head week-on-week, while profits from purchased piglets are at -120.80 yuan/head, down 36.43% week-on-week [2] 2.2 Poultry - The average price of meat chicken chicks is 2.84 yuan/chick, down 1.05% week-on-week, and the price of white feather meat chickens is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week [2] 2.3 Agricultural Products - The average price of wheat is 2,433.61 yuan/ton, down 0.82% week-on-week; japonica rice is at 2,876.00 yuan/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week; and soybean meal is at 2,940.00 yuan/ton, down 0.54% week-on-week [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the aquaculture feed industry due to the upcoming sales peak in summer and rising prices of certain fish species [4] - In pig farming, companies with strong cost control or clear cost reduction paths are recommended, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For poultry, attention is drawn to integrated industry leaders like Shengnong Development and Lihua Stock for their stable expansion and cost advantages [4] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and Hefeng Stock are highlighted for benefiting from the recovery in livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are recommended for their focus on food security [4]