爱尔眼科 (300015 CH) 业绩积极增长，消费眼科表现靓丽 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 27 日│中国内地 | 医疗服务 | 目标价(人民币): | 17.63 | 公司 1H25 实现收入 115.07 亿元（yoy+9.1%）、归母净利 20.51 亿元 （yoy+0.1%）、扣非归母净利 20.40 亿元（yoy+14.3%），整体保持积极 增长。公司眼科综合诊疗实力行业领先且全球化服务网络布局持续完善，看 好公司 25 年实现稳健发展。维持"买入"。 证券研究报告 公司 1H25 毛利率为 48.6%（yoy-0.9pct），我们推测主因公司持续强化服 务网络建设，固定成本有所增加。公司 1H25 销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 9.1%/13.5%/1.3%（yoy-1.5/+0.03/-0.1pct），公司积极提升宣传推广效率， 销售费用率有所下降。公司 1H25 经营性现金流量净额 34.02 亿元 （yoy+19.7%），现金流水平持续 ...

诊疗质效齐升 从业务结构来看，爱尔眼科三大主营业务在上半年呈现出不同亮点，屈光项目、视光服务项目、白内障 业务分别同比增长11.14%、14.73%、2.64%；眼前段项目和眼后段项目也分别增长13.06%、9.02%。其 中，屈光项目通过技术迭代升级落实"反内卷"，全光塑、全飞秒4.0、全飞秒Pro等新术式得到患者普遍 认可，屈光客单价企稳回升。 报告期内，爱尔眼科成功引进了蔡司新一代机器人全飞秒设备VISUMAX800并开始提供全新微创手术 SMILEpro。在该项手术中，屈光微透镜形成时间进一步缩短，每只眼睛仅需10秒，相较于普通全飞 秒"读条时间直接砍半"，手术效率、安全性进一步提升。 新技术带来的积极影响同样在白内障项目上得以显现。公司相关负责人表示，上半年屈光性白内障手术 增长，多焦晶体应用比例加大；飞秒白内障术式、手术导航系统、智能显微镜等应用不断增加，带来更 好的视觉质量的同时满足患者多层次医疗需求。 视光项目方面，公司连续主办第19届世界近视眼大会等重大会议，品牌影响力进一步加大，同时全流程 精细化管理、各分支机构服务标准化效应显现，患者满意度不断提高，小儿眼病、视觉训练以及老花矫 治等项目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, He Shi Eye Hospital, is facing significant challenges, including a substantial decline in stock price and ongoing shareholder reduction pressures, amid a competitive landscape in the ophthalmology industry [1][3][7]. Company Summary - He Shi Eye Hospital's major shareholder, Advanced Manufacturing Industry Investment Fund, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3.1061 million shares, representing 2% of the total share capital, marking the second attempt for a similar reduction [3]. - The company's stock price has dropped over 60% from its historical peak, closing at 21.82 yuan per share as of July 2, 2025 [1][3]. - Since its establishment in 1995, He Shi Eye Hospital has expanded from a small clinic to a group-based ophthalmology service provider, currently operating 127 service institutions as of the end of 2024 [6]. Financial Performance - In 2022, He Shi Eye Hospital reported a revenue of 9.55 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.74% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.33 billion yuan, down 61.55% [7]. - The financial situation worsened in 2024, with revenue declining by 7.56% to 10.96 billion yuan and a net loss of 0.2739 billion yuan, marking a 143.11% year-on-year decline [7][8]. - Compared to competitors like Aier Eye Hospital, which maintained a revenue growth rate of around 20%, He Shi Eye Hospital has experienced negative growth since its IPO [7][9]. Industry Context - The ophthalmology market in China is undergoing significant changes, with the number of private eye hospitals increasing from 890 to 1,609 between 2019 and 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.4% [9]. - He Shi Eye Hospital's main business segments, including cataract, optical, and refractive services, have all faced revenue declines due to increased competition from larger players [9][10]. - The industry is also impacted by policy changes, such as the reform of medical insurance payment methods and centralized procurement of medical supplies, which have reduced procurement costs by 60% but also compressed profit margins [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth of 0.35% in 2024, achieving a total revenue of 4.03 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.6% to 429 million yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.093 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% increase, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 4% [4][9]. - The establishment of an employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance talent attraction and employee cohesion [8]. Business Segments - The refractive and optical business segments showed steady growth, with refractive business revenue reaching 1.296 billion yuan (+7.44%) and an operating margin of 52.05% (-2.45 percentage points). The optical business generated 1.069 billion yuan (+5.15%) with a margin of 45.57% (-4.49 percentage points). However, the cataract business saw a revenue decline of 11.56% to 873 million yuan, with a margin of 35.16% (-8.53 percentage points). The posterior segment generated 536 million yuan (+9.21%) with a margin of 39.64% (-4.99 percentage points) [5][6]. Financial Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.2% (down 4.84 percentage points) and a net profit margin of 10.64% (down 5.95 percentage points). For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 44.97% (down 4 percentage points) and the net profit margin was 13.7% (down 2.25 percentage points). The company effectively controlled its expense ratios, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 12.5%, 11.2%, and 1% respectively [7][9]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 predicts net profits of 521 million yuan, 610 million yuan, and 705 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30X, 26X, and 22X [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q1 performance of the company met expectations, and the ramp-up of new hospitals is expected to lead to improved performance [1] - The company experienced a decline in total revenue in 2024, but a recovery in profits is anticipated in 2025 as new hospitals begin to contribute positively [8] - The company has opened 8 new hospitals in 2024, which has put pressure on profits, but as these new facilities stabilize, overall performance is expected to improve [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 2,718 million, with a projected decline to 2,678 million in 2024, followed by growth to 2,989 million in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 267.91 million in 2023, with a significant drop to -101.86 million in 2024, but a recovery to 104.09 million is expected in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be -0.68 in 2024, with a recovery to 0.70 in 2025 and further growth to 1.30 in 2026 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to be 61.64 in 2025 and decrease to 25.42 by 2027 [1] Operational Metrics - The company achieved an outpatient volume of over 1.53 million visits in 2024, a growth of 1.63%, and performed over 181,200 surgeries, an increase of 3.13% [8] - Revenue from refractive surgery was 1,227 million in 2024, down 5.31%, while comprehensive eye disease revenue grew by 12.81% to 470 million [8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 36.98%, down from previous years, with a net profit margin of -3.47% [8] Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to recover to 1.04 billion in 2025 and 1.95 billion in 2026, with an expected net profit of 2.52 billion by 2027 [8] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the ophthalmology sector, driven by increasing consumer demand [8]

Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with operating income of 2.678 billion yuan (-1.46% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -102 million yuan (-138.02%) [1] - In Q1 2025, the company showed signs of recovery with operating income of 742 million yuan (+9.82%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27 million yuan (+61.18%) [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total outpatient volume of over 1.531 million visits (+1.63%) and over 181,200 surgeries (+3.13%) [1] - Revenue from refractive services in 2024 was 1.227 billion yuan (-5.31%) with a gross margin of 47.02% (-4.56 percentage points) [1] - The company’s overall sales gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 36.98% and -3.47%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.02 and 13.70 percentage points [2] Business Segmentation - The company’s cataract revenue in 2024 was 576 million yuan (-3.04%) with a gross margin of 38.93% (-4.44 percentage points) [1] - Comprehensive eye disease revenue increased by 12.81% to 470 million yuan, although the gross margin decreased to 0.47% (-12.94 percentage points) [1] Strategic Developments - As of the end of 2024, the company operated 35 ophthalmology specialty hospitals and 4 outpatient departments, with 16 new medical institutions added from 2022 to 2024, accounting for over 40% of total facilities [2] - The company is in a market cultivation phase for its newly opened hospitals, which has led to increased fixed costs and pressure on profits [2] Profit Forecast - The company revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 down to 104 million yuan and 195 million yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 207 million yuan and 301 million yuan [3] - The projected net profit for 2027 is 252 million yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 62, 33, and 25 times for the respective years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.983 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.556 billion yuan, up 5.9% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 6.026 billion yuan, representing a 16.0% increase, and a net profit of 1.050 billion yuan, which is a 16.7% rise [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 23.430 billion yuan and 25.960 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 11.7% and 10.8% [4] Business Performance - In 2024, the revenue from various business segments was as follows: refractive (7.60 billion yuan, +2.3%), vision care (5.28 billion yuan, +6.4%), cataract (3.49 billion yuan, +4.9%), anterior segment (1.90 billion yuan, +6.0%), and posterior segment (1.50 billion yuan, +8.2%) [2] - The company achieved an outpatient volume of 16.94 million visits and performed 1.29 million surgeries in 2024, marking increases of 12.1% and 9.4%, respectively [3] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.44 yuan and 0.50 yuan, respectively, with a net profit forecast of 4.070 billion yuan and 4.649 billion yuan [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 49.8% in 2025 and improve to 50.1% in 2026 [9] Market Position - The company has established a global medical service network with 974 facilities worldwide, including 811 in mainland China [3] - The overseas revenue reached 2.63 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 12.5% of total revenue, indicating a growing international presence [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 20.98 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, and net profits meeting market expectations. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 6.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, exceeding market expectations, primarily due to the recovery in consumer business [1]. Group 1: Business Performance - In 2024, the consumer business faced pressure, with refractive and optical revenues growing by 2.3% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively. However, in Q1 2025, both segments are expected to outperform the overall company revenue growth due to the elimination of price base pressure and the application of new technologies [2]. - The serious medical segment maintained stable growth in 2024, with cataract, anterior segment, and posterior segment revenues increasing by 4.9%, 5.9%, and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively. The company anticipates continued stable performance in Q1 2025 [2]. Group 2: Expansion and Service Improvement - By the end of 2024, the company operated 581 domestic medical institutions and 163 overseas institutions, having acquired nearly 90 domestic medical institutions and the Optimax Group to enter the UK ophthalmology market. This expansion is expected to enhance market positioning and achieve economies of scale [3]. - The company is optimizing service models by extending outpatient hours and building smart hospital platforms to meet diverse patient needs, achieving a patient satisfaction rate close to 99.0% in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 48.1%, a sales expense ratio of 10.3%, and a management expense ratio of 14.2%. The net profit margin for the parent company was 16.9% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.0%, with a reduction in sales and management expense ratios to 9.0% and 12.6%, respectively. The net profit margin for the parent company increased to 17.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025-2026 down by 7.73% and 7.94% to 4.09 billion yuan and 4.699 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 29.9x for 2025 and 26.0x for 2026 [5]. - The target price is maintained at 16.0 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 36.5x for 2025 and 31.8x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 22.0% from the current stock price [5].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 4.027 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.35% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 429 million, a decrease of 35.63% [2] - As of the end of the reporting period, total assets amounted to CNY 7.924 billion, with net assets of CNY 5.794 billion [3] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue reached CNY 1.093 billion, a year-on-year growth of 11.74%, while net profit was CNY 150 million, down 4.00% [3] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the cataract business generated revenue of CNY 873 million, a decline of 11.56% due to the implementation of centralized procurement policies [3] - The refractive business achieved revenue of CNY 1.296 billion, growing by 7.44% [3] - The comprehensive optometry business reported revenue of CNY 1.069 billion, an increase of 5.15% [3] - The eye posterior segment business saw revenue of CNY 536 million, a slight increase of 0.19% [3] Market Outlook - The aging population is expected to drive demand for various age-related eye diseases, including cataracts, with an estimated 80% incidence rate among individuals over 60 [8] - By 2050, the number of cataract patients in China is projected to reach 241 million [8] - The prevalence of myopia among children and adolescents is a significant public health issue, with a reported rate of 51.9% in 2022 [9] - The market for eye care services in China is anticipated to grow, driven by increasing demand in various segments [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand its operations through mergers and acquisitions or self-built facilities in 24 key investment provinces [10] - There is a focus on enhancing the eye care service network and improving operational efficiency through technology and management systems [7] - The company is actively seeking overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in Europe and Asia, to enhance its global footprint [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated operational resilience with a rapid growth in performance in Q1 2025, driven by consumer-oriented projects [6] - The 2024 revenue reached 20.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.556 billion yuan, up 5.87% year-on-year [3][6] - The report anticipates continued recovery in performance, supported by stable pricing in refractive surgery and an increase in the proportion of high-end procedures [6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 20.983 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 15.3% in 2025, reaching 24.199 billion yuan [6][9] - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 4.139 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.4% in 2025 [6][9] - The gross margin for the medical services segment is expected to be 48.1% in 2024, slightly declining from previous years [6][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.6 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [3][6] Performance Metrics - The report outlines key performance metrics, including an expected EPS of 0.38 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.44 yuan in 2025 [6][9] - The projected return on equity (ROE) is 17.2% for 2024, with a gradual increase to 18.5% by 2027 [6][9] - The company's asset-liability ratio is forecasted to decrease from 34.4% in 2024 to 22.5% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [9]