证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-03 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2961.5 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2478.53 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《现代化为矛，稳定生产为盾》 - 2026.02.11 农林牧渔行业报告 （2026.2.24-2026.2.28） 猪价创新低 ⚫ 行情回顾：上涨 节后第一周，农林牧渔（申万）指数大幅涨 4.01%，在申万 31 个 一级行业中排名第 14。农业子板块中，除水产养殖外，其余子板块均 上涨。其中节前跌幅较大的种植业、种子等板块反弹较多；而养殖板 块则继 ...

Core Insights - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points in January 2026, with a decline of 0.2% for the sector compared to a 1.7% increase for the index [15][17]. - Low-cost pig farming enterprises are showing competitive advantages, with significant performance differentiation among companies as indicated by their annual earnings forecasts [4][29]. Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural sector's performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with the sector down 0.2% while the index rose 1.7% [15][17]. - The planting, animal health, fishery, and agricultural processing sub-sectors saw increases of 13.7%, 13.0%, 10.0%, and 6.6% respectively, while feed and livestock farming sub-sectors decreased by 0.1% and 5.1% [15][18]. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs in January 2026 was 12.53 CNY/kg, reflecting an 11.8% month-on-month increase but a 21.2% year-on-year decrease [29][34]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 5.9 CNY/head, a month-on-month increase of 154 CNY/head, but a year-on-year decrease of 159.8 CNY/head [29][32]. - The average profit for purchased piglets was 47.5 CNY/head, with a month-on-month increase of 260.6 CNY/head and a year-on-year increase of 92.2% [29][32]. Raw Material Prices - In January 2026, the average spot price of corn was approximately 2365 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [48][49]. - The average spot price of wheat was about 2520 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope for their potential turnaround [4][29]. - For smaller livestock companies, attention is drawn to Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [4][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector continues to perform poorly, with the agricultural index down 3.26%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [4][14] - Pig prices are showing a slight upward trend, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, up 1.92% from the previous week [5][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to decrease in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a new upward cycle in pig prices [5][23] - The white feather chicken market is facing downward pressure, with chick prices dropping to 2.7 CNY/bird, down 1 CNY from before the hatching pause [7][33] - The planting sector shows mixed trends, with sugar prices slightly decreasing and cotton prices increasing [37] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector continues to underperform, with the agricultural index down 3.27% this week [14] - The pig farming sector is leading the decline due to recent price fluctuations [17] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - Prices are slightly recovering, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, and piglet prices rising to 336 CNY/head, an increase of 31 CNY from last week [5][20] - The industry remains in a loss position, with expectations of continued losses as supply pressures persist [5][23] - The production capacity is expected to continue decreasing, with a potential new cycle beginning in the second half of 2026 [23][24] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have decreased due to weak demand and an accumulation of breeding eggs during the hatching pause [7][33] - The overall supply remains high despite a decrease in the number of breeding stock updates due to avian influenza outbreaks [7][33] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 5345 CNY/ton, while cotton prices have increased to 15978 CNY/ton [37] - Soybean prices have shown minor adjustments, with Brazilian soybeans at 3611 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4638 CNY/ton, both down by approximately 1% [37]