Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown a significant increase, with the agricultural index rising by 4.01% in the first week after the Spring Festival, ranking 14th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The pig price has reached a new low, with the average price at 10.76 CNY/kg as of February 28, 2026, down 0.8 CNY/kg from before the festival, marking the lowest level since 2019 [5][16] - The white feather chicken price has seen a slight increase in chick prices, averaging 3.1 CNY/chick, while the price of broiler chickens has slightly decreased to 3.62 CNY/kg [6][28] - The planting sector has experienced price fluctuations, with sugar prices slightly increasing to 5313 CNY/ton, while soybean prices surged by 19.1% to 5192 CNY/ton [33] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index has increased significantly, with all sub-sectors except aquaculture showing growth [12][13] - The pig farming sector continues to face challenges, with prices under pressure due to increased supply and decreased consumer demand [5][16] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking - **Pigs**: Prices have dropped to a record low, with ongoing supply pressures expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to potential further price declines [5][20] - **Profitability**: The pig farming sector is experiencing losses, with self-bred pigs showing an average loss of 160 CNY per head [17] - **White Feather Chicken**: The supply of breeding chickens remains adequate, with potential uncertainties arising from overseas imports [6][28] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - **Sugar**: Prices have increased slightly, reflecting market dynamics [33] - **Soybeans**: A significant price increase of 19.1% has been noted, indicating strong demand or supply constraints [33] - **Cotton and Corn**: Both commodities have seen price increases, with cotton at 16700 CNY/ton and corn at 2330 CNY/ton [33]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points in January 2026, with a decline of 0.2% for the sector compared to a 1.7% increase for the index [15][17]. - Low-cost pig farming enterprises are showing competitive advantages, with significant performance differentiation among companies as indicated by their annual earnings forecasts [4][29]. Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural sector's performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with the sector down 0.2% while the index rose 1.7% [15][17]. - The planting, animal health, fishery, and agricultural processing sub-sectors saw increases of 13.7%, 13.0%, 10.0%, and 6.6% respectively, while feed and livestock farming sub-sectors decreased by 0.1% and 5.1% [15][18]. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs in January 2026 was 12.53 CNY/kg, reflecting an 11.8% month-on-month increase but a 21.2% year-on-year decrease [29][34]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 5.9 CNY/head, a month-on-month increase of 154 CNY/head, but a year-on-year decrease of 159.8 CNY/head [29][32]. - The average profit for purchased piglets was 47.5 CNY/head, with a month-on-month increase of 260.6 CNY/head and a year-on-year increase of 92.2% [29][32]. Raw Material Prices - In January 2026, the average spot price of corn was approximately 2365 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [48][49]. - The average spot price of wheat was about 2520 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope for their potential turnaround [4][29]. - For smaller livestock companies, attention is drawn to Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [4][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector continues to perform poorly, with the agricultural index down 3.26%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [4][14] - Pig prices are showing a slight upward trend, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, up 1.92% from the previous week [5][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to decrease in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a new upward cycle in pig prices [5][23] - The white feather chicken market is facing downward pressure, with chick prices dropping to 2.7 CNY/bird, down 1 CNY from before the hatching pause [7][33] - The planting sector shows mixed trends, with sugar prices slightly decreasing and cotton prices increasing [37] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector continues to underperform, with the agricultural index down 3.27% this week [14] - The pig farming sector is leading the decline due to recent price fluctuations [17] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - Prices are slightly recovering, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, and piglet prices rising to 336 CNY/head, an increase of 31 CNY from last week [5][20] - The industry remains in a loss position, with expectations of continued losses as supply pressures persist [5][23] - The production capacity is expected to continue decreasing, with a potential new cycle beginning in the second half of 2026 [23][24] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have decreased due to weak demand and an accumulation of breeding eggs during the hatching pause [7][33] - The overall supply remains high despite a decrease in the number of breeding stock updates due to avian influenza outbreaks [7][33] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 5345 CNY/ton, while cotton prices have increased to 15978 CNY/ton [37] - Soybean prices have shown minor adjustments, with Brazilian soybeans at 3611 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4638 CNY/ton, both down by approximately 1% [37]