证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-03 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2961.5 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2478.53 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《现代化为矛，稳定生产为盾》 - 2026.02.11 农林牧渔行业报告 （2026.2.24-2026.2.28） 猪价创新低 ⚫ 行情回顾：上涨 节后第一周，农林牧渔（申万）指数大幅涨 4.01%，在申万 31 个 一级行业中排名第 14。农业子板块中，除水产养殖外，其余子板块均 上涨。其中节前跌幅较大的种植业、种子等板块反弹较多；而养殖板 块则继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its sales figures for January 2026, indicating a mixed performance in both chicken and pork segments, with notable changes in sales volume and revenue compared to previous periods [1] Group 1: Chicken Sales - In January 2026, the company sold 112 million meat chickens, generating revenue of 2.973 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 11.72 yuan per kilogram [1] - The month-on-month changes in sales volume, revenue, and average price were -2.24%, -3.13%, and -9.50% respectively, while year-on-year changes were +18.03%, +25.50%, and +2.81% respectively [1] - The company also sold 13.1095 million white feather chicken chicks in January 2026 [1] Group 2: Pork Sales - The company sold 2.9636 million meat pigs in January 2026, resulting in revenue of 4.698 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 12.75 yuan per kilogram [1] - Month-on-month changes in sales volume, revenue, and average price were -35.05%, -11.17%, and +9.91% respectively, while year-on-year changes were +2.20%, -12.17%, and -19.15% respectively [1] - The decline in meat pig sales volume was attributed to a reduction in the company's previous piglet stocking [1] - Additionally, the company sold 420,600 piglets in January 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Wens Foodstuff Group indicates a mixed performance in sales and revenue for January 2026, with notable changes in both chicken and pork product sales [1] Group 1: Chicken Sales - In January 2026, the company sold 112 million chickens (including live chickens, fresh products, and cooked food), generating revenue of 2.973 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price for live chickens was 11.72 yuan per kilogram, with a month-on-month change of 2.24% and a year-on-year change of 18.03% [1] - The sales volume of white feather chicken seedlings reached 13.1095 million [1] Group 2: Pork Sales - The company sold 2.9636 million pigs (including live pigs and fresh products) in January 2026, resulting in revenue of 4.698 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price for live pigs was 12.75 yuan per kilogram, with a month-on-month change of -35.05% and a year-on-year change of 2.20% [1] - The revenue from pork sales showed a month-on-month decline of 11.17% and a year-on-year decline of 12.17% [1]

Core Insights - The chicken industry is experiencing significant performance divergence, with 10 out of 17 companies forecasting profit declines, 3 expecting profit growth, and 3 shifting from profit to loss [2][11]. Performance Summary - **Companies with Expected Profit Decline**: - Wen's Foodstuffs: Expected net profit of 20-22 billion yuan, down 40.73%-46.12% [3][12] - Lihua Food: Expected net profit of 5.5-6 billion yuan, down 60.55%-63.84% [3] - Yisheng Livestock: Expected net profit of 1.5-1.9 billion yuan, down 70.23%-62.29% [3] - Jinke Smart Agriculture: Expected net profit of 1.25-1.65 billion yuan, down 76.88%-82.49% [3] - Other companies also reported declines, including Hunan Jiajia and Juxing Agriculture [4]. - **Companies with Expected Profit Growth**: - Shennong Development: Expected net profit of 13.7-14.3 billion yuan, up 89.16%-97.44% [5][15] - Chunxue Food: Expected net profit of 3.6-4.3 billion yuan, up 340.90%-426.63% [5][15] - Xiaoming Co.: Expected net profit of 0.71-0.92 billion yuan, up 58.43%-105.30% [3]. - **Companies Shifting from Profit to Loss**: - Huayun Agriculture: Expected loss of 0.45-0.65 billion yuan [4] - Tianma Technology: Expected loss of 1.4-1.8 billion yuan [4] - New Hope: Expected loss of 15-18 billion yuan, down 480.07%-416.72% [6][15]. Industry Trends - The chicken industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with significant price fluctuations impacting profitability [7][16]. - Companies like Chunxue Food are achieving growth through market expansion and product diversification, contrasting with those relying on traditional farming methods [8][16]. - Cost control is becoming a critical factor for profitability, as seen in Wen's Foodstuffs maintaining a leading position despite a decline in growth [8][16]. Future Outlook - The white feather chicken market is experiencing a price increase, with expectations for sustained high demand in 2026 [18]. - The price of parent breeding chickens is rising, indicating a positive outlook for the chicken industry in 2026, contingent on pork price recovery [18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector continues to perform poorly, with the agricultural index down 3.26%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [4][14] - Pig prices are showing a slight upward trend, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, up 1.92% from the previous week [5][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to decrease in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a new upward cycle in pig prices [5][23] - The white feather chicken market is facing downward pressure, with chick prices dropping to 2.7 CNY/bird, down 1 CNY from before the hatching pause [7][33] - The planting sector shows mixed trends, with sugar prices slightly decreasing and cotton prices increasing [37] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector continues to underperform, with the agricultural index down 3.27% this week [14] - The pig farming sector is leading the decline due to recent price fluctuations [17] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - Prices are slightly recovering, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, and piglet prices rising to 336 CNY/head, an increase of 31 CNY from last week [5][20] - The industry remains in a loss position, with expectations of continued losses as supply pressures persist [5][23] - The production capacity is expected to continue decreasing, with a potential new cycle beginning in the second half of 2026 [23][24] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have decreased due to weak demand and an accumulation of breeding eggs during the hatching pause [7][33] - The overall supply remains high despite a decrease in the number of breeding stock updates due to avian influenza outbreaks [7][33] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 5345 CNY/ton, while cotton prices have increased to 15978 CNY/ton [37] - Soybean prices have shown minor adjustments, with Brazilian soybeans at 3611 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4638 CNY/ton, both down by approximately 1% [37]

Sales Performance - In December 2025, the company sold 10.93 million meat chickens, generating revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 12.95 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decline of 7.06% in sales volume and 7.67% in revenue, but a year-on-year increase of 1.33% in sales volume and 11.88% in revenue [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the company sold 1.30 billion meat chickens, with total revenue of 32.93 billion yuan and an average selling price of 11.78 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.87% in sales volume but a decrease of 1.78% in revenue [1] Pig Sales - In December 2025, the company sold 4.56 million pigs, with revenue of 5.29 billion yuan and an average selling price of 11.60 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 4.81% in sales volume and 1.73% in revenue, but a year-on-year increase of 50.06% in sales volume [1] - For the full year of 2025, the company sold 40.48 million pigs, generating revenue of 61.48 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 13.71 yuan/kg, indicating a year-on-year increase of 34.11% in sales volume [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak, and the main contract was switched to 2602. As of last Friday's close, the main egg JD2602 contract was reported at 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.03%; the egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.26% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.11 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.97% [7][18]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in the country was 2.71 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the old hen price increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.49% [26]. 3.2基本面分析 - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month. As of the end of November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in December will still decline slightly [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased month - on - month. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6,357.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.08% [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 661,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08%; the average slaughter age was 488 days, with a maximum of 500 days and a minimum of 475 days [40]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales in the representative markets in the sales areas were 6,432.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: Last week, the arrival in the Beijing market was 81 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 11 trucks; the arrival in the Guangdong market was 513 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 7 trucks [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the old hen slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. The old hen slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 1.9585 million, a decrease of 124,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.95 days, the same as the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous Friday [57]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 6.25%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan per ton; the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,122 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 39 yuan per ton [61]. - **Related Products Situation** - **White - Feathered Broiler**: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.39 yuan per chick, up 0.06 yuan per chick from the previous week; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.63 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [65]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: The national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.89 yuan per catty, up 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [70]. 3.3后市展望 - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3.4操作策略 - **Single - Side**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously pay attention to the old hen elimination rhythm. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: None [9][72].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company's broiler chick business has a low proportion in its overall operations [1] Group 2 - The company, Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (stock code: 300498), responded to investor inquiries on an interactive platform [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its sales and revenue figures for November 2025, indicating a mixed performance in the poultry and pig farming sectors, with specific changes in sales volume and pricing compared to previous periods [1] Poultry Sales - The company sold 118 million meat chickens in November 2025, generating revenue of 3.324 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 13.22 yuan per kilogram [1] - The month-on-month changes in sales volume, revenue, and average price were -8.40%, -8.51%, and -0.83% respectively, while year-on-year changes were 6.02%, 10.18%, and 3.77% respectively [1] - The company sold 17.1317 million white feather chicks in November 2025, with a cumulative sales figure of 156 million white feather chicks for the year [1] Pig Sales - The company sold 4.3535 million pigs in November 2025, which included 3.4589 million market pigs and 894,600 piglets, resulting in revenue of 5.199 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price for market pigs was 11.71 yuan per kilogram, with month-on-month changes of 11.83%, 2.99%, and 1.21% for sales volume, revenue, and price respectively [1] - Year-on-year changes for sales volume, revenue, and price were 49.71%, -14.19%, and -29.92% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The company reported significant sales figures for October 2025, with a total of 128 million meat chickens sold, generating revenue of 3.633 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price for meat chickens was 13.33 yuan per kilogram, showing a month-on-month increase of 4.66% [1] - The company also sold 15.3874 million white feather chicks in October, with a cumulative total of 139 million chicks sold for the year [1] Poultry Products - In October 2025, the company sold 128 million meat chickens, with a revenue of 3.633 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price for meat chickens was 13.33 yuan per kilogram, with month-on-month changes of 4.66% in sales volume and 4.91% in revenue [1] - Year-on-year changes showed an 8.01% increase in sales volume and a 9.96% increase in revenue [1] Pork Products - The company sold 3.8928 million live pigs in October 2025, generating revenue of 5.048 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price for live pigs was 11.57 yuan per kilogram, with month-on-month changes of 17.07% in sales volume and a 1.47% increase in revenue [1] - Year-on-year changes indicated a 45.69% increase in sales volume for live pigs, while there were declines of 13.15% and 34.41% in revenue from fresh pork and piglets, respectively [1]