早 报 精 选 4、美国CPI同比涨幅低于市场预期，交易员加大下月降息押注。 5、中国恒大：将在8月25日从港交所退市。 宏 观 新 闻 1、 财政部等三部门印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》。其中提出，对符合条件的个人消费贷款给予财政贴息。贴息范围 包括单笔5万元以下消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家装、电子产品、健康医疗等重 点领域消费。对于单笔5万元以上的消费，以5万元消费额度为上限进行贴息。 2、财政部、中国人民银行等九部门印发 《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，同时符合条件的贷款可享受贴息政策。方案提 出，对于经办银行向服务业经营主体发放的贷款，财政部门按照贷款本金对经营主体进行贴息，贴息期限不超过1年，年贴息比例为 1个百分点，中央财政、省级财政分别承担贴息资金的90%、10%。单户享受贴息的贷款规模最高可达100万元。 3、外交部发言人林剑昨日答记者问。记者提问称，特朗普称可能会允许英伟达在华销售"特供版"芯片。林剑表示，中方已多次表明 在美输华芯片问题上的原则立场，希望美方以实际行动维护全球产供链稳定畅通。 4、外交部发言人林剑昨日答记者问。 ...

近期，白羽鸡价格经历"过山车"式波动。7月初部分地区白羽鸡毛鸡价格跌破3元/斤，然而 到了8月份，毛鸡价格最高飙升至3.7元/斤，鸡苗价格更是从1.5元/只涨至4.2元/只，还依 然供不应求。这给养殖企业带来怎样的影响？ 江苏淮安：养殖需求增加 鸡苗价格上涨供不应求 江苏省淮安市淮阴区某白羽鸡养殖基地管理人员王金成介绍："我们厂目前每批次白羽鸡能 养100万只左右，大概45天就可以出栏。7月份行业深度亏损，一些种禽厂为减少损失，采 取抽毛蛋、提前淘汰种鸡等一些极端措施，缓解过剩压力。但是过度的淘汰导致8月鸡苗供 应缺口扩大，苗价涨到4.2元一只，波动性增大。 " 养殖场负责人介绍，由于前段时间气温高，不少小规模的养殖场和散户暂停养殖，如今随着 气温降低，更适宜白羽鸡生长，是导致这一轮白羽鸡毛鸡和鸡苗价格快速上涨的主要原因。 在肉鸡主产省山东，鸡苗价格涨幅更是惊人，一个多月的时间上涨了300%。 在山东滨州沾化一家肉鸡养殖合作社， 肉鸡养殖户 都景刚最新购买了2万羽白羽肉鸡鸡苗 进行补栏，价格较7月初累计上涨300%。 养殖基地计划通过降低饲料成本、提高鸡苗存活率和降低料肉比，来应对鸡苗价格上涨所带 来的成本增 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in white feather chicken prices have been significant, with prices dropping below 3 yuan/kg in early July and rising to 3.7 yuan/kg by August, while chick prices increased from 1.5 yuan to 4.2 yuan, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1][3] - In Jiangsu Huai'an, the increase in demand for breeding and the subsequent rise in chick prices are attributed to favorable growing conditions as temperatures drop, leading to a surge in white feather chicken prices [3][6] - In Shandong, the price of chick苗 has surged by 300% since early July, reflecting a dramatic increase in the cost of poultry farming [5][6] Group 2 - The rise in meat chicken prices, which increased by 15% in July, is driving farmers to replenish their stocks, with expectations of continued price increases as the school season approaches [6] - The overall price of domestic white feather meat chicken products rose from 8260 yuan/ton to 8420 yuan/ton in July, boosting the enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises for purchasing live chickens [6]

Core Insights - The company reported sales of 111 million meat chickens in July 2025, generating revenue of 2.316 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 9.89 yuan per kilogram [1] - The company sold 11.1027 million white feather chicks in July 2025, with cumulative sales for the year reaching 99.6205 million [1] - The company sold 3.1648 million pigs in July 2025, with revenue of 4.877 billion yuan and an average selling price of 14.58 yuan per kilogram [1] - The increase in pig sales year-on-year is attributed to prior increases in breeding stock and the impact of external sales of piglets [1] Financial Performance - July 2025 meat chicken sales showed a month-on-month change of +6.35% in volume, +1.22% in revenue, and -3.89% in average price, while year-on-year changes were +14.02% in volume, -11.84% in revenue, and -25.08% in average price [1] - For pigs, the month-on-month changes were +5.24% in volume, -0.87% in revenue, and +1.32% in average price, with year-on-year changes of +36.22% in volume, -8.72% in revenue, and -23.06% in average price [1]

Group 1 - The company reported sales of 11,094.39 million chickens in July 2025, generating revenue of 2.316 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 9.89 yuan/kg for live chickens. The month-on-month changes were 6.35% for sales volume, 1.22% for revenue, and -3.89% for average price. Year-on-year changes were 14.02% for sales volume, -11.84% for revenue, and -25.08% for average price [1][1][1] - The company sold 1,110.27 million broiler chicks in July 2025, with a cumulative sales of 9,962.05 million broiler chicks for the year [1][1][1] - The company sold 316.48 million pigs in July 2025, including 264.58 million live pigs and 51.90 million piglets, generating revenue of 4.877 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 14.58 yuan/kg for live pigs. Month-on-month changes were 5.24% for sales volume, -0.87% for revenue, and 1.32% for average price. Year-on-year changes were 36.22% for sales volume, -8.72% for revenue, and -23.06% for average price [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The company announced that in July 2025, it sold 111 million meat chickens, generating revenue of 2.316 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 9.89 yuan per kilogram. The month-on-month changes were 6.35% for sales volume, 1.22% for revenue, and -3.89% for average price. Year-on-year changes were 14.02% for sales volume, -11.84% for revenue, and -25.08% for average price [1] - The company sold 11.1027 million white feather chicken seedlings in July 2025 [1] - In terms of live pig sales, the company sold 3.1648 million pigs in July 2025, with revenue of 4.877 billion yuan and an average selling price of 14.58 yuan per kilogram. Month-on-month changes were 5.24% for sales volume, -0.87% for revenue, and 1.32% for average price. Year-on-year changes were 36.22% for sales volume, -8.72% for revenue, and -23.06% for average price [1]

Group 1 - The company reported sales of 110.94 million meat chickens in July 2025, generating revenue of 2.316 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 9.89 yuan per kilogram [1] - The month-on-month changes for meat chicken sales, revenue, and average price were 6.35%, 1.22%, and -3.89% respectively, while year-on-year changes were 14.02%, -11.84%, and -25.08% [1] - The company sold 11.10 million white feather chicken chicks in July 2025, with a cumulative sales of 99.62 million chicks for the year [1] Group 2 - The company sold 3.1648 million live pigs in July 2025, with 2.6458 million being market pigs and 519,000 being piglets, generating revenue of 4.877 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price for market pigs was 14.58 yuan per kilogram, with month-on-month changes of 5.24%, -0.87%, and 1.32%, and year-on-year changes of 36.22%, -8.72%, and -23.06% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will exceed the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][52]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of broilers and chicks have remained stable, with profits in the breeding sector showing some recovery. However, there are significant losses in the broiler farming and hatching sectors [1][43]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of poultry consumption in the context of economic recovery, as well as the impact of external factors such as avian influenza on supply chains [46]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry consists of 101 listed companies with a total market value of 1,395.44 billion and a circulating market value of 1,070.09 billion [3]. Price Trends - In June, the average price of broilers was 7.18 yuan/kg, down 0.07% year-on-year and down 3% month-on-month. The average price of chicken products was 8,687.5 yuan/ton, down 6% year-on-year and down 2% month-on-month [11][8]. - The average price of chicks in June was 2.29 yuan/chick, a decrease of 21% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year [8][11]. Production Capacity - As of June 2025, the average stock of parent stock was 23.17 million sets, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year but a decrease of 2.8% month-on-month. The average stock of backup parent stock was 15.57 million sets, down 1.9% year-on-year and up 3.8% month-on-month [34][27]. Sales Performance - In June, the sales revenue of Yisheng Co. for parent and commercial chicks was 1.29 billion, down 13.58% year-on-year and down 25.54% month-on-month. The sales volume was 0.61 billion, up 17.68% year-on-year but down 7.26% month-on-month [14]. - The sales revenue of Shengnong Development for chicken was 11.64 billion, up 4.30% year-on-year and up 1.04% month-on-month, with a sales volume of 12.32 million, up 3.18% year-on-year [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Co., and Hefeng Co. due to their potential for profit improvement and valuation recovery in the context of expected consumption recovery [46].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in the pig farming sector, with the national average pig price reaching 15.37 yuan/kg as of July 4, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg [2][10] - The report indicates a decrease in slaughter volume due to high temperatures affecting pork consumption, with daily average slaughter volume dropping to 138,000 heads, a week-on-week decrease of 3.83% [2][16] - The report notes a rebound in average pig weight for slaughter, with the average weight recorded at 128.64 kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.50 kg [2][22] - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in chicken chick prices, with the price of white feather chicken chicks dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 yuan/chick [3][35] - The report discusses the impact of ongoing avian influenza outbreaks on the poultry industry, particularly affecting the supply of quality chicks [3][39] - The seed industry is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [3][48] - The report mentions fluctuations in soybean meal prices, with the spot price at 2,928 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 yuan/ton [3][49] - The agricultural sector overall has shown a 2.55% increase in the past week, outperforming major indices [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply reduction has led to significant price increases, with the national average pig price at 15.37 yuan/kg [2][10] - Slaughter volume has decreased due to high temperatures, with daily average slaughter volume at 138,000 heads [2][16] - Average pig weight for slaughter has rebounded to 128.64 kg [2][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuff Group for potential investment opportunities [2][33] Poultry Sector - White feather chicken chick prices have reached a new low, with prices at 1.36 yuan/chick [3][35] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks are affecting the supply chain, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [3][39] - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Shennong Group for investment [3][39] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - Regulatory measures are being strengthened in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market conditions [3][48] - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating, with current prices at 2,928 yuan/ton [3][49] - The report suggests monitoring soybean meal ETFs for investment opportunities [3][49]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][48]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of white feather broilers is sufficient, while the demand side remains weak, impacting chicken product prices and industry profitability. The expectation is for a recovery in chicken consumption in 2025, driven by domestic demand expansion [6][42]. - The report highlights a cautious replenishment in the breeding sector, with a slight increase in the price of broiler chickens and stable prices for chicks. The average price of white feather chicks is 2.88 yuan per chick, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% but a year-on-year decrease of 8% [8][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In May, the price of broiler chickens slightly increased, while chick prices remained stable. The overall survival rate in breeding is low, leading to a contraction in effective market supply. Terminal consumption continues to be weak, keeping prices low [8][11]. - The average price of white feather broilers in May was 7.41 yuan/kg, down 4% year-on-year and 0.074% month-on-month [11]. Production Capacity - As of May 2025, the average stock of parent stock was 23.83 million sets, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month. The average stock of backup parent stock was 15 million sets, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 1.5% month-on-month [29][36]. - The report notes that the average stock of grandparent stock was 1.48 million sets, up 20.9% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month [28][31]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the profitability of the chick sector has improved, while the losses in broiler farming have significantly reduced. In May, the loss in broiler farming was 0.07 yuan per chicken, a substantial reduction compared to previous periods [36][37]. - The profitability of hatcheries was reported at 0.26 yuan per chick, showing a significant increase month-on-month [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in chicken consumption and improvements in profitability [42].